884
FXUS65 KBYZ 172157
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
257 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS RETURN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. LESS THAN 50% CHANCE
FOR A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
- MUCH COLDER PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE N/NW FLOW ALOFT ARE POISED TO AFFECT
OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERLAYING LAPSE RATES
AND 850MB WINDS, THE PERIOD LATE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
OUR EAST JUMPS OUT. WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB REACH 50 KTS THIS
EVENING, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT QUITE STEEP ENOUGH (4-5 C/KM) TO
FULLY TAP INTO THOSE STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER, LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WE MAY TAP INTO 850MB WINDS FROM 35-45KTS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO
MID LEVEL COOLING (7-8 C/KM). OVERALL, BEST MIXING AND HIGHEST 850
MB WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE COINCIDE TO SUGGEST HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THAT SAID...GUSTS COULD STILL REACH 35-45 MPH OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHERIDAN'S PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDIEST POTENTIAL TOWARD
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH ARE AROUND 50% FROM ROSEBUD TO FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WYOMING.
A RELATED CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLY
TYPE ACTIVITY OVER OUR EAST. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE
RATES SUNDAY AND MID LEVEL FORCING, WE COULD SEE NARROW BANDS OF
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS. ITS PLAUSIBLE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW TO UNDER A MILE WITH ROADS BECOMING SUDDENLY
SNOWPACKED. THIS COULD IMPACT ISOLATED STRETCHES OF I-94 EAST OF
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY, AS WELL AS US_212 IN POWDER RIVER AND
CARTER COUNTIES. THE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF EVEN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS ONLY ABOUT 15-40% OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL PUSH. THIS EVENT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR AS STRONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH REMAINING BELOW 50% ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE MAY SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AS WELL AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW HANG UP OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT ANY IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS.
ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGEST A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
SNAP IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY)
WITH A PATTERN LEADING TO OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR SUB 20 DEGREE HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEKEND RANGE FROM 30% WEST TO
85% EAST NEAR THE DAKOTAS. THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW
DURING THIS TIME RANGES FROM 30-50%. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN
A COOLER PATTERN AT WEEKS END, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW
COLD IT MAY GET. PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE
PLANS NEXT WEEKEND. BT
AVIATION
20Z DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS UP TO 40KTS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
(KLVM/K6S0) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT A STRONG INVERSION WILL RESULT IN LLWS FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, INCLUDING KBIL. NNW WINDS FROM THE SFC TO 040 AGL COULD
DIFFER BY 50KTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z.
AFTER 12Z THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, GUSTY
WINDS OF 30-40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AFTER 12Z. WHILE
KBIL & KSHR DOES HAVE A CHANCE OF SEEING THESE SHOWERS (30%), THE
GREATEST CHANCE IS FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS KMLS/KBHK. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES MAY SHIFT RAPIDLY BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR AS THESE
SHOWERS PASS THROUGH THE AREA. EXPECT MOUNTAINS TO BE PARTIALLY
OBSCURED AFTER 10Z. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/040 019/044 030/043 021/033 018/038 011/019 003/018
02/J 00/U 01/E 11/B 01/B 24/J 33/J
LVM 026/038 019/042 027/040 019/032 018/040 014/024 006/024
10/B 00/U 00/N 01/B 01/B 24/J 33/J
HDN 030/040 015/041 024/042 019/033 014/039 008/021 001/017
02/J 10/B 02/J 12/J 01/B 35/J 54/J
MLS 023/033 010/029 019/033 017/026 012/029 002/011 903/012
13/J 00/B 02/J 11/E 00/B 23/J 42/J
4BQ 027/035 014/031 020/038 018/027 013/035 008/017 901/016
03/J 00/B 02/J 21/E 00/B 23/J 42/J
BHK 015/028 000/020 010/029 011/022 008/023 903/008 909/009
24/J 00/B 03/J 31/N 00/E 23/J 43/J
SHR 026/037 012/038 019/042 014/029 010/040 006/021 902/021
02/J 10/U 02/J 11/B 00/B 13/J 32/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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