395
FXUS65 KBYZ 180340
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
840 PM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GREATER THAN
50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER
EXPOSED HILLTOP AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS FROM BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. LESS THAN 50% CHANCE
FOR A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
- MUCH COLDER PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH A
LOT OF WIND PUSHING THROUGH JUST OFF THE SURFACE. EXPECT THAT SOME
OF THIS WIND WILL MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER HILLS AND
FOOTHILLS. UPDATED FORECAST MAINLY FOR WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPPING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA HAS GENERATED A SURFACE TROF ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT
DROPS SOUTHWARD STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND 850MB NORTHWEST WINDS
OVER 50KTS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
MODELS ARE INSISTENT THAT PROTECTED LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
(INCLUDING MOST OF THE POPULATED AREA IN THE FORECAST AREA) WILL
STAY INVERTED ENOUGH TO KEEP THESE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. MORE EXPOSED HIGHER ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE
STRONGER GUSTS WITH A FEW 50 TO 60 MPH REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A FEW 50+ GUSTS SHOWING UP
UPSTREAM OVER NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. GIVEN THE
LIMITED IMPACTS IN THE LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGER GUSTS
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HIGHLITES FOR NOW.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE STRONGER WINDS AFTER ABOUT 2AM
BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE WITH
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN THE 35-50+ MPH RANGE. AT THE
SAME TIME MODELS SHOW CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWER BANDS DEVELOPING IN
THE COLD AIR WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW AND POOR VISIBILITIES, MAINLY FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST AND
ALONG THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS, BUT COULD STRETCH A BIT FURTHER
WEST. MODELS HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS WITH
THE LATEST RUNS, AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE UPDATED FORECAST
THROUGH TOMORROW. STILL DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR MOST AREAS (PROBABILITIES >1.0IN PEAK AROUND
40%), AND BLOWING/DRIFTING WILL MAKE MEASUREMENT DIFFICULT IN ANY
EVENT. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL FOR
POTENTIAL HIGHLITES. COULD NEED A COMBINATION OF HIGH WIND/SNOW
SQUALL/WINTER WEATHER HIGHLITES DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS TREND OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE A GOOD LOOK
AT THINGS AND MAKE A FINAL DETERMINATION WHAT IF ANY PRODUCTS LOOK
APPROPRIATE. IN ANY EVENT BE PREPARED FOR A BLUSTERY UNSETTLED
DAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (BILLINGS EAST)
ON SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES IN THE N/NW FLOW ALOFT ARE POISED TO AFFECT
OUR REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERLAYING LAPSE RATES
AND 850MB WINDS, THE PERIOD LATE TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS
OUR EAST JUMPS OUT. WIND SPEEDS AT 850 MB REACH 50 KTS THIS
EVENING, BUT LAPSE RATES ARE NOT QUITE STEEP ENOUGH (4-5 C/KM) TO
FULLY TAP INTO THOSE STRONGER WINDS. HOWEVER, LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WE MAY TAP INTO 850MB WINDS FROM 35-45KTS AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DUE TO
MID LEVEL COOLING (7-8 C/KM). OVERALL, BEST MIXING AND HIGHEST 850
MB WIND SPEEDS DO NOT QUITE COINCIDE TO SUGGEST HIGH WIND
CRITERIA. THAT SAID...GUSTS COULD STILL REACH 35-45 MPH OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF OUR EASTERN PLAINS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHERIDAN'S PROGGED SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDIEST POTENTIAL TOWARD
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS. PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH ARE AROUND 50% FROM ROSEBUD TO FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WYOMING.
A RELATED CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLY
TYPE ACTIVITY OVER OUR EAST. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE
RATES SUNDAY AND MID LEVEL FORCING, WE COULD SEE NARROW BANDS OF
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS. ITS PLAUSIBLE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY IN
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW TO UNDER A MILE WITH ROADS BECOMING SUDDENLY
SNOWPACKED. THIS COULD IMPACT ISOLATED STRETCHES OF I-94 EAST OF
BILLINGS TO MILES CITY, AS WELL AS US_212 IN POWDER RIVER AND
CARTER COUNTIES. THE WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF EVEN AN INCH OF SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS ONLY ABOUT 15-40% OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL PUSH. THIS EVENT DOES NOT CURRENTLY APPEAR AS STRONG WITH
THE CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH REMAINING BELOW 50% ACROSS
THE REGION. HOWEVER, WE MAY SEE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AS WELL AS
A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW HANG UP OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS...BUT
THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM MAY LIMIT ANY IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS.
ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGEST A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD
SNAP IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY)
WITH A PATTERN LEADING TO OVERRUNNING LIGHT SNOW. NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR SUB 20 DEGREE HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEKEND RANGE FROM 30% WEST TO
85% EAST NEAR THE DAKOTAS. THE CHANCE OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW
DURING THIS TIME RANGES FROM 30-50%. WHILE THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN
A COOLER PATTERN AT WEEKS END, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW
COLD IT MAY GET. PLEASE KEEP TRACK OF THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE
PLANS NEXT WEEKEND. BT
AVIATION
03Z DISCUSSION...
A DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE REGION, THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY JUST OFF
THE SURFACE AT AREA TERMINALS, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. STRONGEST SURFACE GUSTS SHOULD BE AROUND 42KTS, BUT
60KT WINDS ARE FORECAST AT AROUND 2KFT AGL TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
AROUND SUNRISE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. COMBINATION OF SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOCAL IFR OR LOWER VISIBILITY AT TIMES, WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT. EXPECT LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY,
WITH WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/041 019/044 030/043 021/033 018/038 011/019 003/018
01/N 00/U 01/E 11/B 01/B 24/J 33/J
LVM 023/038 019/042 027/040 019/032 018/040 014/024 006/024
01/B 00/U 00/N 01/B 01/B 24/J 33/J
HDN 027/040 015/041 024/042 019/033 014/039 008/021 001/017
12/J 10/B 02/J 12/J 01/B 35/J 54/J
MLS 023/033 010/029 019/033 017/026 012/029 002/011 903/012
34/J 00/B 02/J 11/E 00/B 23/J 42/J
4BQ 026/036 014/031 020/038 018/027 013/035 008/017 901/016
25/J 00/B 02/J 21/E 00/B 23/J 42/J
BHK 015/028 000/020 010/029 011/022 008/023 903/008 909/009
46/J 00/B 03/J 31/N 00/E 23/J 43/J
SHR 021/037 012/038 019/042 014/029 010/040 006/021 902/021
03/J 10/U 02/J 11/B 00/B 13/J 32/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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