982
FXUS65 KBYZ 181012
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 AM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS TODAY. GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING, ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER EXPOSED HILLTOP
AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS FROM BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING
CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. LESS THAN 50% CHANCE FOR
A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.
- MUCH COLDER PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH SNOWFALL THIS MORNING WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SQUALLS. 850 MB WINDS IN THE 40S KTS AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR STRONG MIX DOWN WINDS. THE HRRR IS INDICATING
MIXING HEIGHTS OF 1-1.5 KM, ENOUGH FOR MOST LOCATIONS TO GUST INTO
THE 40S MPH AND A FEW LOCATIONS TO GUST OVER 50 MPH. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT WITH ONLY CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES HAVING CHANCES (10-40%) FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH. THE
THREAT AREA IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF BILLINGS WITH THE BEST
POTENTIAL BEING FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY AND LOCATIONS TO THE EAST.
BLOWING SNOW COULD LEAD TO BRIEF AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW
VISIBILITY (<1/2 MILE). SNOWFALL CHANCES AND WIND SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE THIS MORNING BEFORE 1 PM.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THIS ROUND DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE LAST FEW WE
HAVE GOTTEN. THE CHANCES FOR A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH HAVE
INCREASED INTO THE 40-70% RANGE FOR FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WHILE
REMAINING BELOW 50% FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE TUESDAY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. CHANCES FOR
GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL REMAIN LOW WITH CARTER AND FALLON
COUNTIES HAVING A 10-30% CHANCE WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES
ELSEWHERE.
LATE IN THE WEEK THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW RETURNING. THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR GENUINELY COLD TEMPERATURES. JUST HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES MIGHT FALL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS HAVE MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (50-90%) FOR A LOW
TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION EVEN
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE 40-70% OF GETTING A TEMPERATURE BELOW -10 F.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT FOR THE LATE
WEEK/WEEKEND TIME FRAME. SNOW AMOUNTS AND TIMING REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. CURRENTLY, MOST AREAS HAVE A 10-30% CHANCE OF GETTING
GREATER THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS WEATHER PERIOD, MONITOR THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE PLANS. TORGERSON
AVIATION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVER THE EAST, WITH 40-50 KNOT WINDS AT ~2KFT
AGL. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY TODAY AS
WINDS TURN TO THE NW. A DISTURBANCE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA WILL
BRING GUSTY NW WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (EAST/SOUTH OF
KBIL) TODAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 KNOTS, BUT
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS (TO 45 KNOTS) AND BRIEF IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SNOW SQUALL ACTIVITY EAST OF KBIL,
POSSIBLY IMPACTING KSHR, KMLS & KBHK. TIMING OF SNOW SHOWERS IS
BETWEEN 11-00Z. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL DECREASE AND VFR WILL PREVAIL.
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 020/045 031/043 024/037 024/046 015/022 002/012
0/N 00/U 01/E 01/B 01/B 35/S 43/S
LVM 038 019/042 026/039 020/037 024/045 017/027 004/019
0/B 00/U 01/B 00/B 01/B 35/S 43/S
HDN 040 015/042 025/042 022/036 017/044 012/023 901/012
1/N 00/B 03/S 11/B 01/B 46/S 55/S
MLS 035 009/030 019/033 019/027 012/032 006/012 907/004
2/S 00/B 02/S 11/B 01/E 34/S 43/S
4BQ 037 012/033 021/036 021/029 015/039 011/021 901/010
3/S 00/B 03/S 11/B 00/B 24/S 42/S
BHK 028 901/022 011/027 012/021 005/027 000/010 912/002
4/S 00/B 14/S 31/Q 00/B 33/S 43/S
SHR 038 012/040 019/039 017/033 014/045 011/025 903/014
3/S 00/U 03/S 01/B 01/B 24/S 43/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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