792
FXUS65 KBYZ 182106
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
206 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DECREASING WIND THIS EVENING.
- STRONG GAP WIND IN FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT. (LIVINGSTON/NYE)
- FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW AND BRISK/STRONG
WINDS TO REGION.
- MUCH COLDER PERIOD WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL WINDS DECREASE LATE TODAY AND WITH DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVELY CALM PERIOD OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM TEENS WEST TO NEAR ZERO ON THE DAKOTA BORDER. WIND CHILLS MAY
STILL DROP UNDER ZERO ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER REGION.
N/NW FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THIS MEANS UNSETTLED ROLLER COASTER WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES, ALONG WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE CYCLONIC LATE IN THE
WEEK ALLOWING COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO PENETRATE INTO OUR REGION.
IMPACT WEATHER...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR
LIVINGSTON/NYE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OVER 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED (65% CHANCE) ALONG THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER
I-90 CORRIDOR WITH 60 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE (25% CHANCE).
ANOTHER COUPLE OF FRONTAL PUSHES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD (>60%
IN FOOTHILLS AND 20-40% IN SE MT)...BUT EVEN THIS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.
MODEL TRENDS...ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF COLD SNAP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS FALL WITH LOW GRADE CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING
CANADIAN AIR TO BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION. JUST HOW COLD WE GET
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE (50-90%) FOR A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR OVERRUNNING SNOW AS
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AT THE LOW LEVELS UNDER WESTERLY
FLOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
CURRENTLY, MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY A 10-30% CHANCE OF GETTING
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE OFTEN POOR
HANDLING OVERRUNNING EVENTS THIS FAR OUT. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR OR TRAVEL PLANS LATE THIS WEEK. BT
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES, THUS THERE IS VCSH AT KSHR/KRED. THERE ALSO
CONTINUES TO BE SHSN OUT OVER THE PLAINS (KMLS/KBHK) WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (MVFR). MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL LINGER THROUGH 00Z AROUND KBIL/KSHR KEEPING CIGS JUST ABOVE
MVFR CONDITIONS. NEAR KMLS/KBHK THESE CIGS MAY CONTINUE TO REMAIN
MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL OSCILLATE AT
KMLS/KBHK THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR.
ADDITIONALLY, STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z AS WELL FOR KSHR/KMLS/KBHK. THROUGH THE SAME TIME
PERIOD, KBIL WILL SEE GUSTS UP TO 30KTS OUT OF THE NNW. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OBSCURED THROUGH 08Z. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 020/045 031/043 024/037 024/046 015/022 002/012 902/019
00/U 01/E 01/B 01/B 35/S 43/S 22/S
LVM 019/042 026/039 020/037 024/045 017/027 004/019 005/030
00/N 01/N 00/B 01/B 35/S 43/S 22/S
HDN 015/042 025/042 022/036 017/044 012/023 901/012 905/020
00/B 03/S 11/B 01/B 46/S 55/S 32/S
MLS 009/030 019/033 019/027 012/032 006/012 907/004 910/012
00/B 02/S 11/B 01/E 34/S 43/S 21/B
4BQ 012/033 021/036 021/029 015/039 011/021 901/010 905/017
00/B 03/S 11/B 00/B 24/S 42/S 21/B
BHK 901/022 011/027 012/021 005/027 000/010 912/002 913/007
00/B 14/S 31/Q 00/B 33/S 43/S 21/B
SHR 012/040 019/039 017/033 014/045 011/025 903/014 905/025
00/U 03/S 01/N 01/B 24/S 43/S 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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