880
FXUS65 KBYZ 190255
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
755 PM MST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG GAP WINDS (40-55 MPH) IN FOOTHILLS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
(LIVINGSTON/NYE)
- FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW AND BRISK/STRONG
WINDS TO REGION.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS IS PERSISTING
LONGER THAN THE MODELS ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING. UPDATED FORECAST
TO INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE RED LODGE AND NYE AREAS
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALREADY SEEING
PRESSURES START TO DROP LEE OF THE DIVIDE THIS PAST HOUR WHICH
SIGNALS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF NORTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AND THE END OF SNOWFALL AS WE GET INTO LATE TONIGHT.
COULD SEE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL BEFORE
SNOW ENDS TONIGHT IN THESE UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS, WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL BEING IN THE HIGHER SLOPES AROUND RED LODGE SKI
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. WARM ADVECTION KICKS
IN AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING
PREDOMINANT DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THIS WILL BRING A WARMER AND
BREEZY HOLIDAY MONDAY TO THE REGION. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
MID LEVEL WINDS DECREASE LATE TODAY AND WITH DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT
WE SHOULD SEE A RELATIVELY CALM PERIOD OVERNIGHT. LOWS RANGING
FROM TEENS WEST TO NEAR ZERO ON THE DAKOTA BORDER. WIND CHILLS MAY
STILL DROP UNDER ZERO ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER REGION.
N/NW FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. THIS MEANS UNSETTLED ROLLER COASTER WEATHER WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS AT TIMES, ALONG WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW. THE FLOW TURNS MORE CYCLONIC LATE IN THE
WEEK ALLOWING COLDER CANADIAN AIR TO PENETRATE INTO OUR REGION.
IMPACT WEATHER...GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR
LIVINGSTON/NYE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTS OVER 50
MPH ARE EXPECTED (65% CHANCE) ALONG THE LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER
I-90 CORRIDOR WITH 60 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE (25% CHANCE).
ANOTHER COUPLE OF FRONTAL PUSHES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA. AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF BILLINGS HAVE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD (>60%
IN FOOTHILLS AND 20-40% IN SE MT)...BUT EVEN THIS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 2 INCHES OR LESS.
MODEL TRENDS...ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A BRIEF COLD SNAP LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS FALL WITH LOW GRADE CYCLONIC FLOW ALLOWING
CANADIAN AIR TO BACK DOOR INTO THE REGION. JUST HOW COLD WE GET
IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS HAVE MEDIUM TO
HIGH CHANCE (50-90%) FOR A LOW TEMPERATURE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
REGION. WHILE THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR OVERRUNNING SNOW AS
EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AT THE LOW LEVELS UNDER WESTERLY
FLOW...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
CURRENTLY, MOST AREAS HAVE ONLY A 10-30% CHANCE OF GETTING
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE OFTEN POOR
HANDLING OVERRUNNING EVENTS THIS FAR OUT. PLEASE MONITOR THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR OR TRAVEL PLANS LATE THIS WEEK. BT
AVIATION
03Z DISCUSSION...
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS (RED LODGE) THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z. OTHERWISE
VFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH PARTIAL CLEARING
EXPECTED IN THE EARLY MORNING TOWARD SUNRISE HOURS. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN WESTERLY OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AROUND SUNRISE AS
PRESSURES FALL LEE OF THE DIVIDE AND COLD AIR RETREATS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30KTS CAN
BE EXPECTED FROM BILLINGS WEST INTO THE MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS
SOUTH OF BILLINGS INTO THE KSHR VICINITY THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EASTERN
STATE LINE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 019/045 031/043 024/037 024/046 015/022 002/012 902/019
00/B 01/E 01/B 01/B 35/S 43/S 22/S
LVM 019/042 026/039 020/037 024/045 017/027 004/019 005/030
10/B 01/N 00/B 01/B 35/S 43/S 22/S
HDN 015/043 025/042 022/036 017/044 012/023 901/012 905/020
00/B 03/S 11/B 01/B 46/S 55/S 32/S
MLS 010/030 019/033 019/027 012/032 006/012 907/004 910/012
00/E 02/S 11/B 01/E 34/S 43/S 21/B
4BQ 012/034 021/036 021/029 015/039 011/021 901/010 905/017
00/B 03/S 11/B 00/B 24/S 42/S 21/B
BHK 000/022 011/027 012/021 005/027 000/010 912/002 913/007
00/E 14/S 31/Q 00/B 33/S 43/S 21/B
SHR 013/041 019/039 017/033 014/045 011/025 903/014 905/025
00/B 03/S 01/N 01/B 24/S 43/S 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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