434
FXUS65 KBYZ 190847
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
147 AM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY (GUSTS
40-60 MPH).
- COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY (GUSTS 30-45 MPH). BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS.
- GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT.
- COLDER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. LESS WIND.
- WARMING TREND BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEK'S MODEST COLD SPELL
LOOKS BRIEF, AND FORECAST TEMPS OVERALL HAVE TRENDED NOT AS
COLD.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE PATTERN,
WITH A RIDGE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
OUR REGION. COLDEST AIR IS SURGING THRU THE PLAINS TO OUR EAST,
BUT IT HAS DROPPED TO ZERO AT BAKER AS OF 1AM. THERE IS A
LINGERING AREA OF LOW STRATUS OVER OUR EAST BUT OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS ARE DRY. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT BUT PRESSURES ARE
BEGINNING TO FALL IN NORTH CENTRAL MT AS FLOW IS BECOMING
ANTICYCLONIC AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE, WHICH AT THIS TIME WELL
TO THE NORTH IN THE NORTHERN YUKON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST TODAY AS A KLONDIKE CHINOOK
COMMENCES. HIGHEST PRE-FRONTAL GUSTS SHOULD BE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY, AND MID LEVEL WINDS AND SURFACE GRADIENT SUPPORT 50+ MPH
GUSTS IN THE USUAL SPOTS (60-80% CHANCE). MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BACK
WESTERLY ENOUGH (WITH A IDA-LWT GRADIENT NEAR 15MB) TO SUPPORT 60
MPH GUSTS AT THE GAP LOCATIONS, BUT WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN
NORTHERLY SO THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN. PROBABILITY OF 60 MPH WINDS
AT LIVINGSTON & NYE IS 30%. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS TUESDAY
MORNING AND THIS WILL BRING A SHIFT TO GUSTY NW WINDS
REGIONWIDE...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WE ARE
LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD 30-50 MPH GUSTS. IN ADDITION, ASCENT LOOKS
STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN
OUR EAST AND UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS. EXPECT SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 0.5-2.0", GREATEST IN THE FAR EAST AND OVER THE
PRYOR/BIGHORN MTNS. THE LIGHT SNOW/WIND COMBO MAY YIELD SOME
BLOWING SNOW WITH TEMPS STAYING BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
TOMORROW.
THIS WAVE DEPARTS QUICKLY LATE TUESDAY BUT ANOTHER ON ITS HEELS
WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS DRIER BUT HAS
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR
SHERIDAN AND OVER OUR EAST. ENSEMBLES SHOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS,
AND THE CURRENT NBM PROBS INDICATE A ~50% CHANCE OF 50+ MPH GUSTS
AT BAKER, EKALAKA AND SHERIDAN.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE
GRADIENT REVERSES, WITH LEE SIDE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING INTO THE
REGION FROM CANADA. AFTER NEAR TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TODAY
AND TUESDAY, THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY, LOOK FOR COLDER THAN
NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
SURFACE HIGH, PERHAPS NEAR 1050MB IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENT/CYCLONIC FLOW AND LOWER
HEIGHTS AS THE HUDSON BAY LOW APPROACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THE COLDEST OF THIS FRIGID AIR MASS WILL NO DOUBT MISS US
TO THE EAST, BUT WE WILL SEE IMPACTS AND QUITE POSSIBLY THE
COLDEST AIR YET OF THE SEASON. THERE IS A 25% CHANCE THAT BAKER
WILL REACH -20F FRIDAY MORNING, WHILE EVEN THE WEST HAS A 30%
CHANCE OF SEEING SUB-ZERO LOWS AT THE SAME TIME. THERE COULD BE A
LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT OVERALL THINGS
ARE LOOKING DRY, COURTESY OF SPLIT FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
KEEPING ANY OVERRUNNING POTENTIAL AT A MINIMUM. THE CONFIDENCE IN
SUB-ZERO TEMPS WOULD BE HIGHER WITH A LITTLE SNOW COVER.
COLD AIR MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING PACIFIC
FLOW TO WIN OUT, BRINGING A WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND. IN THIS
REGARD OUR FORECAST HAS TRENDED WARMER IN THE EXTENDED. WITH
CONFIDENCE FROM ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSES THIS MODEST COLD
SPELL LOOKS BRIEF. LOOK FOR TEMPS BACK TO THE LOWER 40S IN OUR
WEST BY NEXT SUNDAY, AND OF COURSE A SHIFT BACK TO GUSTY DOWNSLOPE
WINDS.
JKL
AVIATION
WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE
WITH VALUES INTO THE 30S KTS FOR FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SUCH AS K6S0
AND K3HT. WINDS DECREASE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE REMAINING IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE FOR
THE FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 031/041 025/035 019/028 008/022 009/035 020/042
0/U 03/J 01/B 01/B 21/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 042 028/037 020/034 019/036 009/026 011/037 022/043
0/U 02/J 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 044 027/039 021/035 014/027 004/021 006/033 015/042
0/B 06/J 01/B 01/B 22/J 12/J 11/B
MLS 031 019/031 017/028 009/018 902/012 001/023 009/033
0/E 16/J 10/N 00/E 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 034 020/034 019/031 012/023 001/016 004/028 012/039
0/B 16/J 11/N 00/B 11/B 11/B 10/B
BHK 023 010/026 011/022 001/010 914/004 910/019 004/028
0/E 28/J 21/N 00/E 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 043 020/039 017/033 013/028 002/022 002/033 012/044
0/N 05/J 02/J 00/B 22/J 11/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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