557
FXUS65 KBYZ 192201
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
301 PM MST MON JAN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SEVERE SOLAR RADIATION STORM EVENT AND SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC
STORM ALERT HAVE BEEN ISSUED BY SWPC. VIST WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV FOR
MORE INFORMATION.
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY (GUSTS
40-65 MPH).
- COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY (GUSTS 30-50 MPH). BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS MAY
BRING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS.
- GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT.
- COLDER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-25%) OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. LESS WIND.
- WARMING TREND BY THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEK'S MODEST COLD SPELL
LOOKS BRIEF, AND FORECAST TEMPS OVERALL HAVE TRENDED NOT AS
COLD. GUSTY FOOTHILLS WINDS MAY RETURN.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, STRONG WINDS CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY,
WITH A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH FROM LIVINGSTON TO
BIG TIMBER AND A 20% CHANCE OF THE SAME NEAR HARLOWTON. WHILE A
FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP FOR GAP WIND
AREAS NEAR LIVINGSTON TONIGHT, 700 MB WIND DIRECTION IS MOSTLY
OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST, WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE AND WILL LIMIT
THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH. TUESDAY MORNING, 700 MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 45-50 KTS, AND WITH THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION, ARE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR JUDITH GAP TO BIG TIMBER, SO THE STRONGEST WINDS
THERE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT TUESDAY MORNING BRINGS ANOTHER PUSH OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY, WIDESPREAD GUSTS
AROUND 30-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50 MPH ALONG SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY MT INTO SHERIDAN
COUNTY WY.
WITH THIS COLD FRONT, ASCENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST AND UPSLOPE AREAS
FAVORED BY NORTH WINDS. THE PRYORS AND NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE THE MOST SNOW, WITH A FEW INCHES EXPECTED TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, THE BEST CHANCE (50%) OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN
COUNTY MT INTO NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY WY. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER WINDS WITH THE SNOW, THE STRETCH OF I-90 BETWEEN
HARDIN AND SHERIDAN WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
TUESDAY EVENING WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
BREEZY CONDITIONS (GUSTS 30-50 MPH) ACCOMPANYING ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVE IN EARLY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS AGAIN POTENTIAL WITH THIS
FRONT FOR SOME STRONGER WINDS, WITH A 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER
THAN 50 MPH FOR SHERIDAN COUNTY WY AND ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER.
THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIER THAN THE ONE TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY A
10-20% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES (10-25% CHANCE),
BUT THERE IS GENERALLY A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.2" OF
SNOW.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER
AGAIN AND MAY SEE STRONGER WINDS RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S (NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER) TO
LOW 40S (CENTRAL AND WEST), DECREASING TO LOW 20S TO MID 30S
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY WILL SEE COLD AIR MOVE IN OVER THE EAST, WITH
HIGHS FALLING TO SINGLE DIGITS NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER. FRIDAY WILL
SEE HIGHS NEAR 0 OVER THE EAST TO MID 20S OVER THE WEST. THEN,
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 30S
TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY. ARCHER
AVIATION
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS (INCLUDING KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT). WHILE WINDS
WILL BACK OFF OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY
AHEAD OF A MID-DAY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40S KNOTS) AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH REGION TUESDAY. WITH THIS, THERE IS
A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN
MONTANA, NORTHERN WYOMING, AND ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/040 025/036 016/028 006/021 010/036 020/043 026/049
03/J 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 027/036 020/034 018/033 010/028 013/039 023/043 027/046
02/J 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/U 11/B 11/B
HDN 027/038 021/035 013/026 005/020 005/034 015/042 021/047
06/J 01/B 00/B 11/B 12/J 11/B 12/J
MLS 020/031 018/029 008/016 906/009 902/022 007/033 016/036
16/J 00/N 00/E 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 022/034 020/032 011/021 000/013 003/028 011/036 020/043
07/J 01/N 00/B 11/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 012/028 013/024 001/009 916/002 909/020 003/028 010/030
18/J 22/J 00/E 01/B 01/B 11/B 12/J
SHR 021/038 017/034 009/027 001/019 003/034 011/043 020/048
06/J 01/N 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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