287
FXUS65 KBYZ 200900
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
200 AM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, ESPECIALLY
EAST OF BILLINGS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-50 MPH.
- GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS
EAST OF BILLINGS. LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW ALSO POSSIBLE.
- COLDER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-25%) OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY. LESS WIND.
- WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN OF GUSTY FOOTHILLS WIND EXPECTED BY
THE WEEKEND.
- A SEVERE SOLAR RADIATION STORM EVENT AND SEVERE GEOMAGNETIC
STORM ALERT HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY BY THE SPACE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER. VISIT WWW.SWPC.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NW FLOW OVER THE REGION AND A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL BC/AB. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES
PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUING IN CENTRAL MT AND THE LATEST IDA-LWT
GRADIENT IS 15MB AT 08Z. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BACKED TO THE WNW
WITH 700MB WINDS ~40 KNOTS AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASING THE
STABILITY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE RESPONDED RECENTLY WITH GUSTS ~50
MPH AT LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE. COLD ADVECTION/PRESSURE RISES
ARRIVE BETWEEN 12-15Z SO THE POTENTIAL FOR 50+ MPH GUSTS AT THE
GAP LOCATIONS IS SHORT-LIVED EARLY TODAY. PROBABILITY OF REACHING
60 MPH IS 30%.
FRONTAL WINDS WILL TURN NW AND GUSTY ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
MORNING, AFTER SUNRISE, AND WIDESPREAD 30-45 MPH GUSTS ARE
ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND, THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL
BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHERN
UPSLOPE AREAS AND ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-21Z (WHEN FORCING WILL BE
STRONGEST), THOUGH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES SHOULD LINGER OVER
OUR EAST INTO THE EVENING W/ SHALLOW INSTABILITY. FAVORED AREAS
ARE LOOKING AT SNOW ACCUMS OF 0.5-2.0", GREATEST OVER THE HILLS.
CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 2" IS 10-20". WITH CONSIDERATION TO THE WIND
AND SNOW, ALONG WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING TEMPS, HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TODAY
IN CUSTER, FALLON, CARTER, POWDER RIVER, SOUTHERN ROSEBUD,
SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS. MAIN CONCERN IS
TRAVEL OVER PLACES LIKE LAME DEER AND HOME CREEK DIVIDES (US-212),
AND I-90 THROUGH ABERDEEN HILL AND SHERIDAN.
BILLINGS HAS NOT YET SEEN A MEASURABLE SNOW IN JANUARY, ACTUALLY
NOT SINCE DEC 12TH, AND THAT PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN TODAY PER THE
DOWNSLOPING NW WINDS. BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE IT OUT.
WINDS DIE DOWN THIS EVENING BUT ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE NORTH WILL
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL WINDS LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS DRIER BUT HAS GREATER WIND
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. MODELS SHOW >50KTS AT 850MB
WITH COLD ADVECTION YIELDING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES STARTING
09-12Z. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONFIDENCE (>60% CHANCE)
OF 50+ MPH GUSTS, AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (30-40% CHANCE
IN FALLON/CARTER AND ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THEW BIGHORNS). IF
THERE IS EXISTING SNOW COVER AFTER TODAY'S LIGHT SNOW, THIS COULD
PRODUCE A NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION AND REDUCE THE WIND POTENTIAL A
BIT. THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR. HAVE RAISED FORECAST WIND GUSTS
TO SHOW GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN
OUR FAR EAST TOMORROW BUT ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE MINIMAL. WE
FINALLY GET OUT OF THE TRAIN OF WINDY CLIPPER SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT REVERSES ITSELF IN RESPONSE TO COLDER
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING INTO THE REGION...THOUGH THAT IN
ITSELF WILL KEEP NW WINDS SOMEWHAT BREEZY OVER OUR EAST INTO
THURSDAY (I.E. FALLING TEMPS & WIND CHILLS).
COUPLE OF COLDER DAYS COMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A NEAR 1050MB
HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CONFLUENT/
CYCLONIC NW FLOW AS A PIECE OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW PUSHES AS FAR
WEST AS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. MOISTURE IS LARGELY LACKING AND THUS
THIS LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD, BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
THERE WEREN'T SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS THE COLD
AIR MASS SETTLED IN, WITH UPSLOPE SURFACE WINDS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ON TOP OF THE COLD AIR, SO
THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. IN ANY EVENT, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO TEENS/20S WEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
NIGHTTIME LOWS BELOW ZERO EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS WEST. BAKER HAS A
40% CHANCE OF REACHING -20F FRIDAY MORNING.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR RISING HEIGHTS AND A WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. FOR THIS THERE IS CONFIDENCE, BUT MODELS ARE STARTING TO
SHOW SOME WRINKLES. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE ANOTHER
CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND SOME MAGNITUDE OF COLD ADVECTION NEXT
WEEKEND, HOLDING OFF THE ONSET OF PACIFIC FLOW. ENSEMBLES SHOW
HIGH SPREAD BUT LEAN ON THE WARMER DOWNSLOPING SCENARIO.
YESTERDAY'S CLUSTER ANALYSES ALSO FAVOR THE WARMER SOLUTIONS, WITH
A LEE SIDE TROF OR WEAKER HIGH PRESSURES. SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A
TRANSITION DAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY FOOTHILLS
WINDS TOO, OF COURSE.
JKL
AVIATION
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS
IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. STRONG WINDS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS INITIALLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE
OVERNIGHT WHILE REMAINING BREEZY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE FOR THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. A COLD FRONT TODAY
WILL BRING SNOW CHANCES (50-80%) TO LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS
FROM 12-21Z. SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING
SNOW CONCERNS AND A 40-60% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHK,
KMLS, AND KSHR. SNOW WILL LIKELY CREATE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 025/035 015/026 003/017 004/034 017/039 025/046
3/J 00/N 01/B 22/S 11/B 11/B 11/E
LVM 035 022/034 017/029 005/024 005/036 020/041 026/045
2/J 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/U 11/B 11/B
HDN 038 020/035 011/023 002/016 001/032 011/037 019/046
7/J 01/N 01/B 22/S 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 030 018/029 007/013 908/006 906/021 004/027 014/039
7/J 21/N 01/E 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 033 020/032 010/018 901/011 901/025 007/031 016/043
7/J 21/N 01/B 12/S 11/B 10/B 11/B
BHK 027 012/023 000/008 918/000 914/017 000/024 009/034
8/J 22/J 01/E 11/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 037 021/034 009/022 002/017 901/031 010/037 016/047
7/J 01/N 01/B 22/S 11/U 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5
PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 58-138.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5
PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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