543
FXUS65 KBYZ 210347
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
847 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER FAST-
MOVING COLD FRONT. GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 MPH AT SOME
LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS. LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW ALSO
POSSIBLE.
- COLDER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-30%) OF LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. LESS WIND.
- WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN OF GUSTY FOOTHILLS WIND EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES (6-8 C/KM) AND A STRONG 850MB WIND MAX COINCIDING OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES BEHIND A LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE DAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
OF DAMAGING WIND REACHING THE SURFACE IS BETWEEN ABOUT 4 AM AND 8
AM. HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR CUSTER, FALLON, POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM TO SAFELY ENCOMPASS
THE THREAT. HIGH WINDS COULD ALSO BRIEFLY CLIP THE FAR NE SECTION
OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. BT
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-50 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS THAT SAW SNOW TODAY.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. THEN, LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS
AGAIN, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER, WITH A 40% CHANCE OF GUSTS
GREATER THAN 60 MPH EAST OF A LINE FROM BAKER TO EKALAKA. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED, THIS IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, SO WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
(10-20%) FOR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE EAST WITH THIS FRONT,
WHICH COMBINED WITH THE WINDS (AND SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND FROM
TODAY) MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 MILE.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WILL SEE A CHANGE TO COLDER TEMPERATURES AS A
COLD SURFACE HIGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. LIGHT SNOW
FLURRIES MAY ACCOMPANY THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES (10-30% CHANCE),
BUT THERE IS GENERALLY A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 0.5"
OF SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER HILLS. THE BIGGER
CONCERN WILL BE COLD TEMPERATURES, AND COLD WIND CHILLS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EAST. CURRENTLY, OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES, LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 0, WITH A 40-70%
CHANCE OF LOWS BELOW 0. OVER THE EAST FROM MILES CITY TO THE
DAKOTA BORDER, THERE IS A 40-90% CHANCE (HIGHEST NEAR BAKER) OF
LOWS COLDER THAN -10. FOR BAKER, THERE IS CURRENTLY A 60% CHANCE
OF TEMPS AS COLD AS -20 FRIDAY MORNING AND A 30% CHANCE OF THE
SAME SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THESE COLDER TEMPS, ANY WIND WILL MAKE
THE WIND CHILL FEEL EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER
AS RIDGING BUILDS IN AND A RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. CURRENTLY, MODELS CLIP THE EAST WITH A TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY, WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPS COOLER
OVER THE EAST AND BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW
FLURRIES, HOWEVER, HOW FAR WEST THIS WILL CLIP IS STILL
UNCERTAIN.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY, IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.
THEN, TEMPS WILL DECREASE, WITH HIGHS NEAR 0 OVER THE EAST TO
MOSTLY TEENS OVER THE WEST BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE TEMPS
START TO WARM, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TEENS OVER THE EAST TO UPPER
20S OVER THE WEST. BY MONDAY, HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S. ARCHER
AVIATION
SNOW IS TAPERING OFF IN THE FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF KBIL THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS EVENING TO THE
EAST OF KBIL. 12Z HREF SHOWS A 20-60% CHANCE OF VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 3 MILES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KMLS THIS EVENING, AND THEN
THIS PROBABILITY DECREASES MARKEDLY BY 06Z WEDNESDAY AS THE LIGHT
SNOW TAPERS OFF IN THIS AREA.
WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEN WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHILE REMAINING
BREEZY IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND NEAR
THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLIES
AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 30-45 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS
DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST MT AND NORTH CENTRAL WY.
THERE IS A 45-80% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 45 KT AT
KMLS, KBHK, AND KSHR. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
THE MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. TORGERSON/RMS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 025/035 017/025 003/015 002/027 012/037 022/046 028/050
01/N 00/B 11/B 01/B 11/B 00/B 01/B
LVM 019/034 014/028 005/021 005/029 015/038 023/044 028/046
00/B 00/B 11/B 00/B 11/B 01/B 11/B
HDN 021/035 012/023 000/014 901/023 006/034 015/045 023/048
01/N 01/B 12/J 01/B 21/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 019/029 007/013 910/004 908/014 903/022 010/038 022/040
00/N 00/E 00/B 01/B 11/B 01/B 01/B
4BQ 020/033 010/017 904/008 903/018 001/026 012/042 024/043
00/N 00/B 01/B 01/B 11/B 00/B 01/B
BHK 013/027 000/008 921/000 913/011 908/018 003/033 016/034
21/Q 00/E 00/B 01/B 11/U 01/B 12/J
SHR 017/034 007/022 902/015 903/023 003/033 012/044 020/046
01/N 01/B 12/J 11/B 21/B 00/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM MST WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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