205
FXUS65 KBYZ 210829
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
129 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY BEHIND AN EARLY MORNING COLD FRONT.
GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 50 MPH AT SOME LOCATIONS EAST OF
BILLINGS. LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE.
- COLDER WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW (20-40% CHANCE) THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LESS WIND. EXPECT SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPS, AS COLD
AS 20 BELOW ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER, AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
10 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HERE SO MONITOR THE FORECAST. WHEN IT DOES WARM UP,
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 08Z SHOWS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU
NORTH CENTRAL MT WITH STRONG 850MB COLD ADVECTION. 850MB WINDS ARE
ANALYZED TO BE 50-55KTS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA, BUT STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LAGGING A BIT IN SOUTHERN SK, WHERE WIND
GUSTS ARE CURRENTLY STRONGEST (40-50 MPH). THUS IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
CLOSER TO 12Z BEFORE STRONG GUSTS ARE ABLE TO SURFACE IN SOUTHEAST
MT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 50+ MPH GUSTS ACROSS OUR EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING (THRU 15Z), WHILE THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. IT IS A RELATIVELY
SHORT WINDOW AND HIGHEST GUSTS SHOULD END UP BEING IN WESTERN SD,
BUT WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FOR
OUR FOUR EASTERN ZONES. ALSO, WITH A 1-2" SNOWFALL YESTERDAY,
THESE WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW & REDUCED VISIBILITY
(IN ADDITION TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS). THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE GUSTY NW WINDS OF 30-45 MPH, AND
PERHAPS NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR TODAY'S WIND IN
SOUTHERN AB/SK IN NW FLOW ALOFT. ONCE THIS PASSES, THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE DRY. BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, WE WILL
SEE HEIGHT FALLS AS A PIECE OF THE COLD HUDSON BAY LOW DROPS TO
SOUTHERN MB. THE CYCLONIC/CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY, AND PRESSURES MAY REACH 1050MB OVER NORTHEAST
MT BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS IS A STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH THAT
SHOULD BRING US THE COLDEST TEMPS YET OF THE WINTER (COLDEST
EAST). THERE IS A 70% CHANCE THAT BAKER REACHES -20F BY FRIDAY
MORNING, WHILE SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE LIKELY REGIONWIDE. WIND CHILLS AS
THE PRESSURES RISE WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW ZERO, AND TO -30F IN
OUR EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. A HEADS UP FOR EARLY MORNING
COMMUTERS AND KIDS AWAITING SCHOOL BUSES THAT FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BE QUITE COLD.
THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY & FRIDAY HAS BEEN LOOKING MOSTLY DRY,
BUT WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A PERIOD OR TWO OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A NW-SE RIBBON OF LIGHT SNOW LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOULD BE EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS (PER DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG EASTERN SLOPES) AND WEST
OF ROSEBUD COUNTY (DRIER WITH NO DGZ TO THE EAST). IF TEMPERATURE
PROFILE IS WARM ENOUGH TO INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC LAYER, WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT 1-2" OF SNOW DURING THIS TIME, INCLUDING THE
BILLINGS AREA. PLUS, IF THIS HAPPENS, THE SNOW COVER WILL HELP
PROMOTE COLDER NIGHTTIME LOWS AS WE MOVE TO THE WEEKEND.
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING, BUT CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR
ANOTHER CANADIAN SHORTWAVE AND PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL SLOW OUR EXPECTED WARMUP, AND GIVES POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW. IT NOW APPEARS THAT OUR FAR EAST WILL
GET NO WARMER THAN THE TEENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE LOW 30S
ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR WEST BY SUNDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, WE ARE
LOOKING AT BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR WARMING TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT MUST
STRESS THAT A TRANSITION TO STRONG PACIFIC FLOW IS VERY MUCH IN
DOUBT, WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ALONG THE COAST.
CLUSTER ANALYSES SUPPORT THIS LOCATION FOR THE RIDGE, BUT WITH
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH HEIGHTS WILL RISE DOWNWIND OF THE
RIDGE INTO OUR REGION. BOTTOM LINE; STRESS UNCERTAINTY IN NEXT
WEEK'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT SEEMS TO BE TRENDING
COLDER.
JKL
AVIATION
THE MAIN HAZARD TO AVIATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS FROM A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING OVER THE
PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BETWEEN 09 AND 18Z THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT A MAXIMUM WIND GUST IN THE 40S MPH WITH KMLS, KSHR, AND
KBHK HAVING 30%, 50%, AND 90% CHANCES OF GETTING A WIND GUST OVER
50 MPH. WINDS DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035 014/021 901/009 901/026 008/031 017/042 026/044
0/N 00/B 23/S 02/S 20/B 01/B 11/B
LVM 033 013/025 000/016 002/026 010/033 019/041 026/042
0/B 00/B 11/B 00/B 10/B 01/B 11/B
HDN 034 011/020 903/009 906/024 004/029 010/041 020/041
0/Q 11/B 23/S 12/S 31/B 11/B 12/J
MLS 027 006/011 912/001 909/015 905/019 007/036 017/034
1/N 00/E 01/B 01/B 10/B 01/B 11/E
4BQ 031 009/015 908/006 907/018 001/022 011/038 020/037
1/N 00/E 12/S 01/B 10/B 00/B 11/B
BHK 025 901/005 922/903 917/009 911/015 001/030 011/029
3/J 00/E 01/I 01/B 10/B 00/B 11/E
SHR 032 008/021 904/010 906/024 002/026 006/041 019/042
0/Q 01/B 23/S 11/B 21/B 00/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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