013
FXUS65 KBYZ 220309
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
809 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW (20-60% CHANCE) THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. LESS WIND. EXPECT SUB-ZERO LOW TEMPS, AS COLD
AS 20 BELOW ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER, AND WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
10 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HERE SO MONITOR THE FORECAST. WHEN IT DOES WARM UP,
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
UPDATE
WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
OUT EAST TO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS
OF 8PM. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL NEAR ZERO TO A BIT BELOW
ZERO NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER AND THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT. A JET MAX MOVING OVERHEAD MAY BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WELL.
HAVE DECREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS AND INTRODUCED LOW POPS (20%
OR LESS) TO EASTERN AREAS. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 BELOW OR LESS TOMORROW NIGHT, HAVE EXPANDED THE COLD
AIR ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY. STP
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
VERY LIGHT FLURRIES, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER INTO FRIDAY AS CYCLONIC/CONFLUENT
NW FLOW ALOFT SUPPORTS BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS A STRONG AND COLD SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL
BRING THE COLDEST TEMPS YET OF THE WINTER (COLDEST EAST).
CURRENTLY, FOR CUSTER, FALLON, AND CARTER COUNTIES, LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE AROUND -15 TO -25, WITH A 40%
CHANCE NEAR BAKER OF LOWS COLDER THAN -25. EVEN A LIGHT WIND OVER
THOSE AREAS WILL BRING WIND CHILLS AROUND -25 TO -35 AND A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY, MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BECOMES
STRONG ENOUGH FOR LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL AREAS AND
THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FROM COLUMBUS TO COLSTRIP AND SOUTH AND A
40-60% CHANCE OF THE SAME OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE
FOOTHILLS.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE
AND PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO LINGER OVER AT LEAST THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEST. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE
MODELS WITH HOW QUICKLY THESE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM, WITH SOME
MODELS CALLING FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 20S OVER THE EAST TO LOW 30S
OVER THE WEST AND OTHERS AIMING FOR LOW 30S OVER THE EAST TO LOW
40S OVER THE WEST. CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS TRENDING ON THE WARMER
SIDE, BUT THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH. WITH THE RETURNING
WARM TEMPERATURES, STRONGER WINDS LOOK TO RETURN OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. ARCHER
AVIATION
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20% OR LESS) OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING EASTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND EAST WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY/ THURSDAY EVENING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 014/023 902/009 901/026 008/024 011/040 023/042 022/045
01/E 24/J 00/B 11/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 011/027 901/015 003/026 013/030 016/040 025/042 025/046
00/B 12/J 00/B 10/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 010/022 903/010 905/024 005/023 006/039 018/041 017/042
01/E 35/J 11/B 31/B 11/B 12/J 11/B
MLS 007/011 912/001 908/016 906/013 001/032 013/033 014/032
22/J 01/B 00/B 11/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 011/016 907/006 905/018 000/015 003/035 017/037 017/037
11/B 13/J 00/B 21/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
BHK 902/006 923/903 915/008 913/008 904/026 006/025 005/024
22/J 01/I 00/B 11/B 00/B 12/J 11/B
SHR 007/019 906/011 907/023 002/022 003/040 015/040 017/043
01/B 35/J 10/B 32/J 10/U 01/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM
MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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