291
FXUS65 KBYZ 221601
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
901 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND). WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW TO 30 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDEST IN THE EAST.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WEST OF FORSYTH AND BROADUS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- GUSTY FOOTHILLS WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ADDITIONAL PUSHES OF
COLDER CANADIAN AIR ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT
WEEK'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
UPDATE
COLD AIR HAS BACKED A BIT FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING COMPARED TO
WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. IN ADDITION A
BAND OF LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED IN THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION
OF AN EXITING JET MAX, ALONG AND EAST OF A RYEGATE TO BROADUS
LINE. THIS AREA IS ADVANCING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH THE COLD AIR
INTRUSION AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR. UPDATED FORECAST
TO HANDLE BOTH OF THESE ELEMENTS THIS MORNING, LOWERING
TEMPERATURES CENTRAL/WEST BY 5 DEGREES OR SO AND ADDING A MENTION
OF LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH AT THIS POINT NOT SEEING MORE THAN A DUSTING
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A
COLD AN SNOWY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION,
WITH RIDGING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND A DEEP/COLD HUDSON BAY LOW
OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A 110KT H3 JET EXITING
EASTERN MT, HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE EAST
(WITHIN ITS RRQ) AS OF 0830Z. UPSTREAM THERE IS MORE ENERGY
DROPPING THRU NORTHWEST CANADA. FOR TODAY, EXPECT COLDER TEMPS
ASSOCIATED WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH, AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NEAR
THE DAKOTAS BORDER TO 20S ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS...EASILY THE
COLDEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN YET IN 2026. COLD AIR WILL DEEPEN FURTHER
FOR FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE 1050MB SURFACE
HIGH OVER NORTHEAST MT AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
AS EXPECTED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND W/ MODELS FINALLY CATCHING
ON, WE ARE LOOKING AT A PERIOD OF ARCTIC RIBBON LIGHT SNOWFALL
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, IN RESPONSE TO THE UPSTREAM WAVE AND NW-SE
ORIENTED FRONTOGENESIS. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE WE WILL JUST TOUCH
THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR 15:1 OR 18:1
SNOW RATIOS, WHICH ALONG WITH 0.5-0.10" OF PRECIP WOULD YIELD SNOW
ACCUMS FROM 0.5-2.0" EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND WEST OF THE
COLDEST AIR EXISTING IN OUR EAST. GIVEN MOST OF THIS AREA HAS NOT
SEEN WINTRY WEATHER SINCE DECEMBER, AND THE EXPECTATION OF
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS, HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL ALSO
MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE COLD ADVISORY ALREADY ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
ROSEBUD, CUSTER, FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL
REACH 25-35 BELOW TONIGHT. ANY LIGHT SNOW IN OUR FAR EAST WILL BE
FINE W/ MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. FRIDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL
RANGE FROM 10 TO 30 BELOW ZERO (COLDEST EAST) SO BE READY FOR A
COLD MORNING COMMUTE.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
WEEKEND PER ANOTHER CANADIAN WAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. SNOWFALL WILL BE LIGHT (MAYBE 1-2") BUT EXPECT WIND CHILLS TO
FALL BELOW ZERO AGAIN, TO -20 OR COLDER IN THE EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OVERALL, FRIDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE COLDEST DAY
(SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO). HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
LOOK TO BE SINGLE DIGITS EAST TO TEENS/20S WEST.
FOR THE RECORD, BILLINGS HAS NOT SEEN A MEASURABLE SNOW SINCE DEC
12TH, A STRETCH OF 40 DAYS. THIS STREAK WILL COME TO AN END BY
TOMORROW, IF NOT LATER TODAY.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR A PERIOD OF LEE SIDE TROFFING AND
INCREASING FOOTHILLS WIND LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PROBABILITY OF
50 MPH GUSTS IN THE USUAL SPOTS IS 25-50%. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPS OF COURSE, BUT MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER CANADIAN FRONT
ARRIVES MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. IN FACT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS TO OUR WEST W/ VERY COLD AIR LOCKED IN SOUTHERN CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION. CUSTER ANALYSES SUGGESTS A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THRU THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS MOST LIKELY, BUT THERE
WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF COLDER AIR AND
POSSIBLE OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL. STRESS THE UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT
WEEK'S FORECAST, AND MONITOR FOR CHANGES. JKL
AVIATION
13Z DISCUSSION...
A STRAY SNOW SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FOR KMLS/KBHK WHERE A
BRIEF DIP DOWN TO IFR IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 16Z LOW CLOUDS MOVE INTO
THE REGION BRINGING SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH PARTIAL
TO FULL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. SHSN WILL IMPACT KBIL/KSHR STARTING
BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z. WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, DIPS DOWN
TO IFR SHOULD BE EXPECTED ANYTIME AFTER 02Z AT THESE SITES. WINDS
AT ALL SITES WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE NE BETWEEN
10-20KTS. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 021 903/007 904/024 008/026 015/040 021/039 018/033
2/S 56/S 02/S 42/S 10/B 12/J 21/B
LVM 027 000/010 000/024 014/032 018/041 024/042 024/040
0/B 32/S 00/B 11/B 00/B 01/B 11/E
HDN 020 902/005 908/021 003/023 007/038 014/037 013/032
2/S 57/S 02/S 42/S 10/B 12/J 22/J
MLS 011 912/901 910/011 905/013 003/027 009/026 008/022
2/S 22/S 00/B 21/B 00/B 12/J 21/B
4BQ 014 906/002 908/016 001/015 006/034 013/032 012/027
2/S 45/S 00/B 31/B 00/U 12/J 21/B
BHK 005 922/905 917/007 914/008 902/022 002/021 001/017
2/S 11/I 00/B 21/B 00/B 12/J 21/B
SHR 019 000/009 910/022 004/023 006/039 013/038 014/034
2/B 56/S 11/B 33/S 10/U 02/J 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
29-30-34-36-42-57-58-63-138-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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