898
FXUS65 KBYZ 222008
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
108 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND). WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. COLDEST IN THE EAST.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION WEST OF FORSYTH AND BROADUS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND (AN INCH OR LESS MOST LIKELY).
- GUSTY FOOTHILLS WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- WARMING TREND EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ADDITIONAL PUSHES OF
COLDER CANADIAN AIR ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT
WEEK'S TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
A GOOD PORTION OF THE COUNTRY IS GOING TO EXPERIENCE SEVERE WINTER
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OUR AREA IS GOING TO ESCAPE MUCH
OF THIS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.
THE POLAR VORTEX IS BEING DISPLACED SOUTHWARD FROM THE ARCTIC
ACROSS THE HUDSON BAY AND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT DOES SO, IT IS GRABBING AN EXTREMELY
COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS BUILT UP OVER NORTHWEST CANADA AND ALASKA
AND PULLING DOWN INTO UNITED STATES. FORTUNATELY FOR MONTANA THE
FORCING IMPARTED ON THIS DENSE 1050MB COLD DOME WILL WORK TO SHIFT
IT SOUTHEAST INSTEAD OF STRAIGHT SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THIS WILL BRING MORE OF A GLANCING BLOW (THROUGH SATURDAY)
FROM THIS COLD AIR THAT COULD SEE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES FALL
WELL BELOW -40 DEGREES, FROM CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN, AT TIMES. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL SEE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES WITH MORE
MODERATE COLD AIR FOR AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COLDEST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS DOWNSLOPING
OFF AREA MOUNTAINS WILL WORK TO SCOUR OUT THE COLDEST AIR.
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BITTER COLD TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIME KIDS HEAD OFF TO SCHOOL.
PLEASE MAKE SURE THE KIDDOS ARE DRESSED APPROPRIATELY FOR THE
CONDITIONS AS IT HAS BEEN A WHILE SINCE WE HAVE SEEN
TEMPERATURES/WIND CHILLS THIS COLD. STAY WITH KIDS AT THE BUS STOP
TO KEEP THEM WARM UNTIL THE BUSSES ARRIVE AS BUSSES MAY HAVE
TROUBLE STARTING IN THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND COULD BE LATE. IT
ONLY TAKES A MATTER OF MINUTES FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA TO
SET IN WHEN IT GETS THIS COLD IF NOT DRESSED PROPERLY. A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD IMPACT BUS ARRIVAL TIMES WILL BE AN INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW OVER CENTRAL INTO WESTERN
ZONES. THIS SNOWFALL WILL BE THANKS TO A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER
PATTERN PROVIDING A BIT OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT WILL COMBINE WITH
SFC-H7 FRONTOGENESIS AND SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE GETTING WRUNG OUT
WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. THIS SNOW SHOULD BE FLUFFY POWDER AND
MAINLY BLOW OFF ROADS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SLICK AREAS SO PLAN
YOUR FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH A FEW EXTRA MINUTES TO GET TO
YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WHICH DOES INCLUDE THE BILLINGS VICINITY.
DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE AREA TOMORROW AND BRINGS AN END TO THE
LIGHT SNOWFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. UPPER
PATTERN KEEPS NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HEIGHTS EDGING A BIT HIGHER FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS COMBINED
WITH DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE 20S/30S
SATURDAY/SUNDAY FOR HIGHS, WHILE FAR EASTERN ZONES STICK IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. THERE IS ANOTHER LITTLE RIPPLE IN THE
UPPER FLOW THAT WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, FOCUSED ALONG THE TIGHTEST
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ACCUMULATION BEING MOST LIKELY (60% CHANCE OR BETTER) DURING THIS
BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW POTENTIAL.
BY MONDAY, TEMPERATURES MAY BE IN THE 40S FROM BILLINGS WEST, WITH
20S/30S TO THE EAST. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. EXTENDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MEAGER AND
MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE DAY 7/8 PERIOD. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL TO IMPACT ALL TAF SITES (20-60% CHANCE, HIGHEST NEAR
KBIL AND KSHR) WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS, OCCASIONAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION BY THIS EVENING. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 904/008 904/025 002/025 015/040 022/038 020/035 018/032
55/S 01/E 20/B 00/U 01/E 11/E 11/E
LVM 903/014 901/025 009/032 020/042 026/041 026/042 023/038
23/S 00/B 10/U 00/N 00/E 11/E 11/E
HDN 906/008 909/023 000/021 007/038 016/035 016/033 013/030
56/S 01/B 41/B 00/U 11/E 22/S 22/S
MLS 913/000 911/013 909/012 002/027 009/023 009/023 005/021
22/S 01/B 10/U 00/B 01/E 22/S 11/B
4BQ 907/005 909/019 904/014 003/034 013/030 014/029 009/025
34/S 00/B 10/B 00/U 01/B 22/S 11/B
BHK 924/903 918/008 914/008 904/022 003/020 004/020 000/017
11/I 01/B 10/U 00/B 01/E 22/S 11/B
SHR 907/009 911/022 903/021 004/040 013/037 015/035 013/032
77/S 11/B 41/B 00/U 01/B 12/S 12/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
29-30-34-36-42-57-58-63-138-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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