596
FXUS65 KBYZ 231626
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
926 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AIR SETTLES IN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS (BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND). WIND CHILLS OF 10 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO THIS
MORNING. COLDEST IN THE EAST.
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TODAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO OF ACCUMULATION. ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND (AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS).
- STRONG FOOTHILLS WIND GUSTS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- WARMING TREND FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXIST FOR LATTER PART OF WEEK.
UPDATE
APPROACHING EXPIRATION TIME FOR THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY BUT
WIND CHILLS STILL PUSHING 35 BELOW ZERO IN SOME SPOTS. EXTENDED
THIS ADVISORY THROUGH 5PM THIS AFTERNOON TO COVER THE SLOWER WARM
UP OVER THESE AREAS, THOUGH MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL A BIT SOONER.
WITH LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO FALL IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
AREA WILL KEEP THIS HIGHLITE GOING FOR NOW. DO EXPECT SNOW TO
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY EARLY AFTERNOON, SO MAY ALSO BE
ABLE TO END THIS HIGHLITE A BIT SOONER THAN THE CURRENT EXPIRATION
TIME. CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
WHETHER AN ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TONIGHT AS FORECAST LOWS ONCE AGAIN FALL WELL BELOW ZERO, AND HOW
MUCH SNOW THE NEXT BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY WILL BRING. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS OVER OUR REGION WITH A BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW EXTENDING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES
BEING GENERATED FROM UPSLOPE, OVERRUNNING 700MB MOISTURE AND ALSO
AIDED BY RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 500 MB JET. THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
LINGER THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SOME SUBSISTENCE AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN TONIGHT. SNOW TOTALS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS CONDITIONS ARE TOO
COLD FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH TODAY. LOOK FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR CENTRAL ZONES TO SEE AROUND AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION.
THE BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION REMAINS THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS REGION (>80% CHANCE). WE DID
UNDERCUT MODEL HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WEST TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS.
IMPACTS AND THREATS TODAY...ARE MAINLY FOCUSED ON THE BITTER WIND
CHILLS IN OUR EAST. READINGS OF 25 TO 40 BELOW ZERO WILL OCCUR
(CURRENTLY 30 BELOW IN FALLON COUNTY). THE COLD ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD THROUGH 10 AM. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH 5 PM IS BASED ON
COMBO OF LIGHT SNOW AND WIND CHILLS IN THE 10 BELOW TO 25 BELOW
RANGE THIS MORNING. SOME ROADS, ESPECIALLY THOSE NEAR HIGHER
TERRAIN, MAY BECOME SNOWPACKED IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, MOST ROADWAYS
WERE ALREADY BELOW FREEZING BEFORE THE SNOW BEGAN AND SHOULD NOT
BECOME ESPECIALLY SLICK. MAINLY MINOR INCONVENIENCES FOR DRIVERS
OVERALL.
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE IN WESTERLY FLOW PROVIDING A MODEST WARM UP
FOR SATURDAY (20S WEST TO AROUND 5 DEGREES EAST) BEFORE ANOTHER
WAVE WITHIN THE CYCLONIC FLOW DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW.
CURRENTLY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST WITH BETTER MID
LEVEL FORCING AND A 30% CHANCE OF A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AT LEAST
50 MB DEEP ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY SEE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM. NBM
PROBABILITY FAVORS THE NORTH FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND
BIGHORNS WITH 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW (30% CHANCE) INCLUDING THE RED
LODGE AREA. THIS MAY BE UNDERDONE IF WE DO SEE A PERIOD OF DECENT
DENDRITIC GROWTH, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THOSE
PROBABILITIES RISE AS WELL AS POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE
AREAS. STAY TUNED FOR TRENDS ON THIS.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE RIDGING
MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES AND WARMING TEMPS. THE PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE
FOR GAP FLOW AND WE MAY SEE A THREAT OF STRONG WINDS DEVELOP IN
OUR THE FOOTHILLS (LIVINGSTON/NYE) AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF ON MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ARE STILL SHOWING SOME MINOR
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW. BT
AVIATION
12Z DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 00Z FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. DURING THIS PERIOD THERE SHOULD BE MINIMAL VIS
REDUCTIONS, HOWEVER, CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR. AS THE
SNOW MOVES OUT AFTER 00Z, ALL STIES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR, HOWEVER,
LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS MAY LOCALLY PERSIST
THROUGH 06Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH 06Z. REGIONAL
WINDS OUT OF THE NE AT 10-15KTS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY
GOING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. KBIL WILL
SEE WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM NE AT 10KTS AT 00Z, TO SW AT
10-15KTS BY 06Z. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 004 901/024 003/022 016/041 023/040 021/039 022/040
7/S 02/S 51/B 00/U 01/B 11/B 01/B
LVM 013 004/023 008/029 020/041 026/042 025/043 025/041
3/S 00/E 50/B 00/N 01/B 10/B 11/B
HDN 005 906/023 001/020 007/041 018/037 016/037 017/038
7/S 13/S 61/B 00/U 12/J 22/J 11/B
MLS 904 909/013 908/011 002/031 010/024 009/027 009/028
1/I 02/S 20/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 003 905/019 903/012 003/036 016/030 014/033 014/033
3/S 02/S 20/B 00/U 01/B 21/B 11/B
BHK 906 914/009 913/006 904/024 004/020 001/022 004/025
0/I 01/B 10/B 00/U 01/E 21/B 11/B
SHR 003 908/020 902/017 003/041 016/037 015/038 014/037
7/S 12/S 63/J 00/U 01/B 21/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
29-30-34-36-42-57-58-63-138-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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