170
FXUS65 KBYZ 232016
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
116 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, BUT SLOWLY MODERATE
COMPARED TO FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. PROBABILITY FOR
TWO INCHES OR MORE IS AROUND 30%.
- STRONG FOOTHILLS WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OVER 50 MPH IN LIVINGSTON IS AT 70%.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MANY LOCATIONS, A BIT COOLER ALONG
THE EASTERN STATE LINE.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A COUPLE OF COLD DAYS IN STORE BEFORE A WARMING TREND RETURNS THE
AREA TO THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED
THE WINTER THUS FAR STARTING MONDAY.
A BITTER COLD 1050MB SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG THE
NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTH DAKOTA BORDER WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
ZERO EXTENDING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AT MID DAY.
TONIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS FROM NEAR
ZERO ACROSS THE WEST TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO EAST. WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING OF CLOUD COVER AND SOME FRESH SNOW COVER EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW LOCATIONS TO DROP FURTHER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
ANTICIPATE, AND WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE IN SOME OF THOSE FAVORED
LOCATIONS (BAKER/SHERIDAN/HARDIN FOR INSTANCE). WINDS LOOK TO BE
LIGHTER TONIGHT BUT MAYBE A BIT TOO LIGHT IN THE NBM AS THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST IT SHOULD PRODUCE SOME
PRESSURE FALLS PRODUCING ENOUGH WIND TO SUPPORT EXTENDING THE
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOR
CUSTER/CARTER/FALLON COUNTIES WHERE WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -30 SEEM
REASONABLE TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WARMS INTO THE 20S TOMORROW
AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR PULLS FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOBE OFF THE POLAR VORTEX
SWIPES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH ENOUGH
ENERGY TO GENERATE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR AN
INCH OF SNOW ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS MAINLY THE SAME AREAS
THAT SAW SNOW THIS MORNING, WITH A BIT MORE OF A FOCUS FOR 2 TO 3
INCHES (40 TO 50 PERCENT) IN THE BEARTOOTH/PRYOR/N BIGHORN
FOOTHILLS. EASTERN ZONES STAY COLD BUT DO REACH THE DOUBLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO BASED ON THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE. MORE NEAR TO BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT
INCREASED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT COULD PUSH WIND CHILLS IN SE
MONTANA BACK TOWARD ADVISORY LEVELS ONCE AGAIN (NBM 80 PERCENT -25
WC), SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS GOING FORWARD.
WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SNOW IN THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS EAST.
THE ARCTIC LOBE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ALLOWING WEAK RIDGING/HEIGHT
RISES ALOFT TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY HELPING TO ERODE THE COLD ARCTIC
AIRMASS. EXPECT FOOTHILLS WINDS TO GET GUSTY WITH PROBABILITIES
FOR 50+ MPH WINDS IN LIVINGSTON INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR 60+ MPH REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT AT THIS
TIME. HIGHS MONDAY RISE INTO THE 40S FROM BILLINGS WEST AND TO
NEAR FREEZING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES THANKS TO THE INCREASED
DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
MODELS NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING THE COLDER AIR TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND EVEN LOW 50S TO
REAPPEAR FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS,
WHILE THE EASTERN STATE LINE ZONES STAY RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOK MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, ENDING FOR
ALL TAF SITES BY 00Z. EXPECT OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO MVFR
CONDITIONS UNDER SNOW SHOWERS AND OBSCURATION OF THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 907/025 001/015 009/040 026/045 025/046 027/046 025/046
02/S 51/B 00/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 01/B
LVM 904/023 003/022 010/040 025/042 024/046 027/046 027/045
01/E 42/S 00/N 00/B 00/B 01/B 00/B
HDN 911/023 904/012 902/040 021/044 020/046 021/044 021/044
12/S 62/S 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 911/014 906/006 902/035 014/032 016/036 017/033 015/036
01/E 10/B 00/U 01/B 11/B 01/B 01/B
4BQ 909/019 904/008 902/038 019/037 020/041 020/038 018/039
01/B 31/B 00/U 00/B 11/B 01/B 11/B
BHK 918/009 915/000 910/026 006/027 011/029 010/027 008/031
01/B 10/B 00/U 01/B 21/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 914/018 906/009 904/040 018/040 018/045 020/044 019/042
11/B 64/S 00/U 01/B 11/U 01/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST SATURDAY FOR
ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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