682
FXUS65 KBYZ 241220
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
520 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TO START DAY, BUT TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES LATE TODAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TWO TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE IN
FOOTHILLS.
- STRONG FOOTHILL WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IMPACTS
TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON I-90 NEAR LIVINGSTON.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THE COLD ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR FAR EAST UNTIL NOON TODAY. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR CWA WILL SEE SURFACE TEMPS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING AS WELL. HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUDS MAY ALLOW THE TEMPS
TO LEVEL OFF RATHER THAN DROP MORE BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DRAPED NW TO SE OVER OUR AREA WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE FROM CANADA. SO WE MAY SEE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WARMS INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY
WARMING TO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE
EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOBE OFF THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
LATE TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST
WITH EACH RUN AS WE ANTICIPATED. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IT
WILL INDUCE EAST/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER AND
NEAR THE NORTH FACING FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBABILITIES
FOR TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH FACING
SLOPES. OTHER AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OR LESS. WE HAVE ISSUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS,
NORTHERN CARBON, BIGHORN CANYON AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY FROM
5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT 2
INCHES OF SNOW TO BE COMMON IN THESE AREAS, WITH UP TO AROUND 4
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE RED LODGE VICINITY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WY AS WELL, BUT CURRENTLY WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOWFALL THERE.
TO THE EAST...TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS COULD PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER AREA (NBM 75 PERCENT CHANCE -25F WC), SO
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SNOW IN THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS
EAST.
RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL WARM
THINGS UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, AND SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
HELPING TO ERODE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. EXPECT FOOTHILLS WINDS TO
PICK UP WITH PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ MPH WINDS IN LIVINGSTON
INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT BY MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR 60+
MPH REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS MONDAY RISE INTO THE
40S FROM BILLINGS WEST AND TO NEAR FREEZING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES
THANKS TO THE INCREASED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK
WITH ENSEMBLES NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE COLDER AIR TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 40S WEST
TO 30S EAST. EVEN LOW 50S ARE BEING SUGGESTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BT
AVIATION
12Z DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION INTO
WIDESPREAD MVFR BY 21Z AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ACROSS ALL SITES MAY VARY BETWEEN VFR AND IFR STARTING
AT 18Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR
THAT MVFR WILL PREVAIL. AFTER 15Z ALL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER
20KTS ACROSS THE REGION. AT KBIL EXPECT WINDS TO SLOWLY SHIFT FROM
SW TO NW BY 20Z. FOR KBIL/KSHR PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z AND REMAINING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THIS TIMEFRAME IS FORECAST FOR KRED.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 027 002/018 010/041 025/046 026/047 027/045 026/047
2/S 42/S 00/N 00/B 00/U 01/E 00/B
LVM 025 006/024 013/041 025/042 024/046 027/045 026/047
1/B 52/S 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/E 00/B
HDN 026 901/016 001/041 020/044 021/046 021/044 021/045
3/S 62/S 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
MLS 015 908/008 901/036 011/033 018/036 015/032 015/037
2/S 20/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/E 11/B
4BQ 021 903/010 000/039 017/039 023/041 020/039 019/041
2/S 30/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 010 914/002 907/028 005/026 012/031 008/028 008/031
2/S 20/B 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 022 903/013 903/043 017/042 019/046 020/043 019/045
1/B 53/S 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
ZONES 32-33-37.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 56-66-138-169-170.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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