379
FXUS65 KBYZ 241632
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
932 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TO START DAY, BUT TEMPS SLOWLY MODERATE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES LATE TODAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TWO TO FIVE INCHES POSSIBLE IN
FOOTHILLS.
- STRONG FOOTHILL WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. IMPACTS
TO HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON I-90 NEAR LIVINGSTON.
- DRY WITH A WARMING TREND FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST WINDS, TEMPERATURES, AND PRECIPITATION/SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS THROUGH TOMORROW.
STILL SEEING WIND CHILL VALUES UNDER 20 BELOW ZERO AT TIMES OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES. GIVEN THAT WILL KEEP THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IN PLACE UNTIL EXPIRATION TIME AT NOON TODAY. ADDED N STILLWATER
AND SE CARBON COUNTY ZONES TO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS
LATEST MODELS TICKED UP JUST A BIT ON SNOW TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90. ALSO PUSHED TIMING TO NOON TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODELS GOING A BIT LONGER INTO THE MORNING WITH UPSLOPE SNOWFALL.
WINDS HAVE BEEN OVERACHIEVING THIS MORNING FROM BILLINGS WEST
INTO THE FOOTHILLS AHEAD OF THIS AFTERNOONS COLD FRONT. INITIAL
UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WERE NOT HANDLED VERY WELL
BY THE MODELS AND THE PRESSURE PERTURBATIONS WERE ABLE TO GET THE
DENSE COLD AIRMASS MOVING. THAT MOMENTUM ONLY INCREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST DUE TO THE DOWNHILL TERRAIN IN THAT DIRECTION. LOOKING AT
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 2 TO 4 PM RANGE AND THIS WILL BE THE TIME
WHEN WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. INCREASED WINDS OVER NBM
GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT WIND
TRENDS.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES TODAY UNDER THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME IN PLACE. HOWEVER ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL THE FRONT GETS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE
HEAVIEST SNOW EXPECTED FOR THE UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NORTH/EAST
FACING FOOTHILLS ZONES. THE MAIN AREA FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW WILL BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. BILLINGS IS RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN
GETTING AN INCH TO A BIT MORE, AND GETTING A DUSTING. WILL SEE IF
THE LATE MORNING MODELS PROVIDE A BIT MORE CLARITY FOR THE MAGIC
CITY. AT THIS POINT HAVE KEPT SHERIDAN OUT OF THE ADVISORY WITH 1
TO 2 INCHES FORECAST. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A 16% CHANCE
OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES. WILL ALSO BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT THE
SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS FOR ADDITION TO THE ADVISORY IF THAT
PROBABILITY GOES UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER BITTER COLD NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
WHERE WIND CHILLS ARE 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO. THE COLD ADVISORY WILL
CONTINUE IN OUR FAR EAST UNTIL NOON TODAY. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
OUR CWA WILL SEE SURFACE TEMPS BELOW ZERO THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING AS WELL. HOWEVER, INCREASING CLOUDS MAY ALLOW THE TEMPS
TO LEVEL OFF RATHER THAN DROP MORE BEFORE SUNRISE. THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE DRAPED NW TO SE OVER OUR AREA WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH THE
APPROACHING WAVE FROM CANADA. SO WE MAY SEE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
SNOW OR FLURRIES DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WARMS INTO THE 20S TODAY WITH HIGHS EVENTUALLY
WARMING TO THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE
EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOBE OFF THE POLAR VORTEX DROPS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA
LATE TODAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST
WITH EACH RUN AS WE ANTICIPATED. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH IT
WILL INDUCE EAST/NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING TO
GENERATE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA THIS
EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST LIFT WILL BE OVER AND
NEAR THE NORTH FACING FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBABILITIES
FOR TWO INCHES OF SNOW ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT ACROSS NORTH FACING
SLOPES. OTHER AREAS MAY SEE AN INCH OR LESS. WE HAVE ISSUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS,
NORTHERN CARBON, BIGHORN CANYON AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY FROM
5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT 2
INCHES OF SNOW TO BE COMMON IN THESE AREAS, WITH UP TO AROUND 4
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE RED LODGE VICINITY. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
SHERIDAN COUNTY IN WY AS WELL, BUT CURRENTLY WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING
ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOWFALL THERE.
TO THE EAST...TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO ARE AGAIN EXPECTED WITH LIGHT
WINDS. THIS COULD PUSH WIND CHILLS TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER AREA (NBM 75 PERCENT CHANCE -25F WC), SO
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
WITH THE UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SNOW IN THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S WEST TO LOW SINGLE DIGITS
EAST.
RIDGING QUICKLY MOVES IN BEHIND THIS WEATHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL WARM
THINGS UP ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, AND SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY
HELPING TO ERODE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. EXPECT FOOTHILLS WINDS TO
PICK UP WITH PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ MPH WINDS IN LIVINGSTON
INCREASING TO 70 PERCENT BY MONDAY MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR 60+
MPH REMAIN 30-40 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. HIGHS MONDAY RISE INTO THE
40S FROM BILLINGS WEST AND TO NEAR FREEZING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES
THANKS TO THE INCREASED DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE COMING WEEK
WITH ENSEMBLES NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING THE COLDER AIR TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 40S WEST
TO 30S EAST. EVEN LOW 50S ARE BEING SUGGESTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.
NO MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BT
AVIATION
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF KBIL THIS
MORNING BRINGING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. ANOTHER SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT REDUCTIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. INCREASING NW
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS TO QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028 002/018 010/041 025/046 026/047 027/045 026/047
2/S 52/S 00/N 00/B 00/U 01/E 00/B
LVM 027 007/024 013/041 025/042 024/046 027/045 026/047
2/S 62/S 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/E 00/B
HDN 027 901/016 001/041 020/044 021/046 021/044 021/045
3/S 52/S 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
MLS 016 909/008 901/036 011/033 018/036 015/032 015/037
2/S 20/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/E 11/B
4BQ 021 904/010 000/039 017/039 023/041 020/039 019/041
2/S 30/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 011 917/002 907/028 005/026 012/031 008/028 008/031
2/S 20/B 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
SHR 026 902/013 903/043 017/042 019/046 020/043 019/045
1/N 65/S 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR
ZONES 32-33-37.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 34-56-66-138-139-169-170.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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