115
FXUS65 KBYZ 070950
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
250 AM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED GRASS FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
- MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WETTER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S TODAY (COOLEST IN
THE EAST), AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ON SUNDAY. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE WARMTH, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE
TEENS TO 30%. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MT WILL MOVE OFF INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING, COINCIDING WITH AN UPPER WAVE.
THIS WILL BRING BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS ACROSS THE PLAINS ARE FORECAST IN
THE 20S AND 30S MPH, WHILE HIGHER GUSTS INTO THE 40S MPH ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN GAP AND FOOTHILL AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAINS ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY TODAY DUE TO BREEZIER CONDITIONS. THE WARMEST AND
DRIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ZONES TODAY. FOR
SUNDAY, THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN SOUTHEAST ZONES AND
NORTHERN WYOMING. PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
ANOTHER FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS. ALONG WITH THE GRADIENT, 700MB WINDS
WILL INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO THE 40S KNOTS. BASED ON LOCAL
GUIDANCE, THE MOST FAVORABLE TIME PERIOD FOR GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
WOULD COUNTER THE AFTERNOON PERIOD DUE TO THE LACK OF AN
INVERSION, A MORE MIXED SETUP COMES INTO PLAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS INTO THE 50S MPH WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING/EXCEEDING 60 MPH. BE PREPARED FOR GUSTY
CROSSWINDS IF TRAVELING ALONG I-90 WEST OF BIG TIMBER.
THE MUCH ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE LATEST TRENDS
BRING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, SHIFTING WINDS TO
THE EAST. THE MAIN TROUGH ENERGY IS THEN SHOWN PUSHING INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA BY EARLY MONDAY. ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL
BEGIN AND LAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
FORECAST IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS. THE
LATEST PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IS 60-90%,
GREATEST FOR SOUTH AND WEST FACING ASPECTS. THE PROBABILITY FOR AT
LEAST 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS 30-60%, GREATEST FOR SW ASPECTS AND
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES (INCLUDING RED
LODGE), ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LOWER, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR
AT LEAST 2" IS 25-50% AND 10-40% FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES. LAST BUT
NOT LEAST, THE BIGHORNS ARE FORECAST TO PICKUP SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AS WELL, WITH A 25-50% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES.
ACROSS THE PLAINS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S
AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION. AS PRECIPITATION ARRIVES, TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S. A RAIN/SNOW MIX REMAINS
MOST PROBABLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR AT
LEAST 0.1 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIP IS 20-60% (LOWEST IN THE EAST).
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE
TROUGH DEPARTS LEAVING UNSETTLED FLOW THROUGH MID-WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50F, ALTHOUGH STILL
AROUND TO ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER POTENTIAL PRECIP EVENT IS SHOWN
BY ENSEMBLES IN SOME FASHION FOR WEDNESDAY, THOUGH CERTAINTY
REMAINS LOW. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE APPROACH THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, AFTER
SEVERAL WEEKS OF EARLY SPRING.
MATOS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30KTS WILL BE COMMON, WITH GUSTS AROUND 40KTS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 040/062 040/051 027/049 026/049 026/051 027/051
0/B 00/E 37/W 31/B 11/B 00/U 00/B
LVM 060 040/057 040/047 025/043 022/045 024/046 025/046
0/N 00/N 68/W 21/B 12/J 10/U 01/B
HDN 067 034/065 038/052 026/050 023/050 023/052 023/053
1/B 00/B 27/W 31/B 12/W 10/U 01/B
MLS 060 034/062 035/047 026/045 022/047 023/048 023/049
0/E 00/B 25/W 21/B 01/B 10/U 00/B
4BQ 062 035/063 035/052 027/046 025/049 024/049 025/051
0/E 00/U 04/W 21/B 11/E 10/B 01/U
BHK 055 032/059 031/046 024/042 022/045 022/045 022/046
0/N 00/U 15/W 31/B 11/B 11/U 01/U
SHR 060 031/063 033/052 021/044 021/046 021/048 021/049
0/E 00/B 16/W 52/J 23/W 21/U 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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