391
FXUS65 KBYZ 072129
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
229 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED GRASS FIRE RISK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
- MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WETTER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
A DRY FRONT / WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA AT THIS TIME WHICH
IS CLEARING OUT THE BROKEN SKIES THAT HAVE BEEN AROUND SINCE LAST
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND RH VALUES
TO DROP AS WELL WITH THE QUICKLY WARMING TEMPS. THIS COULD POSE
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND
WEST OF BILLINGS. TOMORROW COULD SEE WINDS JUST AS BREEZY AS
TODAY, HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER WITH RH VALUES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID, STILL EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT GAP WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE
AREA. 700MB WINDS ARE CURRENTLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 30KTS AND THEY
SHOULD STRENGTHEN UP TO 40KTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FEATURE MOVING IN LATE SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDA-
LWT SHOULD ALSO BE ABLE TO EXCEED 12MB AND POTENTL REACH 15MB;
PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO GET THOSE GAP WIND GOING. THE LACK OF CLOUD
COVER SHOULD ALLOW THE PBL TO DE-COUPPLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. ALL OF
THESE INGREDIENTS COMBINED SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADVISORY LEVEL (50KT
+) WINDS TO IMPACT LIVINGSTON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY EVENING A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
DRAGGING WITH IT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER
WITH THIS FEATURE IN TERMS OF HOW LONG IT WILL BE IMPACTING OUR
CWA. THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH SOME SNOW
STARTING IN THE MONTANA MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
RAIN SPREADING INTO THE FOOTHILLS AFTER SUNSET. BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IT IS LIKELY THAT THE ENTIRE CWA WILL BE SEEING SOME TYPE OF
PRECIPITATION WHICH SHOULD COME IN THE FORM AS RAIN FOR EVERYONE
BELOW ~6KFT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE NW PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY AND THEN BE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE AREA BY MID-AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DROP SNOW LEVELS
BEHIND IT DOWN TO 4KFT BY MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL
DROP QUICKLY, THE MOISTURE WILL NOT STICK AROUND MUCH LONGER AFTER
THE FROPA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS (<1") FOR
AREAS BELOW 5.5KFT. THERE ARE SOME MODEL RUNS THAT WANT TO GIVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW INTO THE RED LODGE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MID DAY MONDAY, HOWEVER, MOST OF THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS KEEP THE EASTERLY WINDS WELL EAST OF THAT AREA.
ALL GLOBAL MODELS KEEP AN ACTIVE PATTERN IN NORTH AMERICA IN THE
LONG RANGE. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR US IS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN ADDITION TO REPEATED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. OF COURSE, THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE SO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE PLANS COMING UP NEXT WEEKEND. WMR
AVIATION
BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TODAY. WHILE WINDS OVER
THE PLAINS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING, GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT) INTO SUNDAY.
AROUND KLVM, GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
(MODERATE CHANCE). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/064 038/046 027/047 026/047 025/050 027/051 029/050
01/B 68/O 20/U 12/S 10/U 00/B 11/B
LVM 041/058 038/045 024/043 023/043 023/044 024/046 026/045
02/R 88/O 20/U 12/S 10/U 01/B 12/S
HDN 035/066 036/048 026/050 025/048 022/051 023/053 025/051
01/B 58/R 21/B 13/O 10/U 00/U 12/O
MLS 034/062 034/044 027/046 024/045 023/048 024/048 023/046
00/U 36/O 10/U 01/E 10/U 00/B 01/E
4BQ 035/064 034/047 028/047 027/046 024/049 024/050 025/048
00/U 15/O 21/B 12/O 11/U 00/U 01/B
BHK 032/060 031/044 023/045 024/043 022/044 022/047 022/046
00/U 25/O 11/U 12/O 11/B 00/U 01/B
SHR 032/064 030/048 023/045 022/044 020/047 020/048 020/046
00/U 27/R 42/S 34/O 21/U 01/U 12/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM MST
MONDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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