147
FXUS65 KBYZ 080551
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1051 PM MST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED GRASS FIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
- STRONG WINDS FOR WESTERN GAP AREAS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING,
INCLUDING LIVINGSTON. 50% CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST OVER 60 MPH.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50-90%) TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HEAVY
SNOW FOR BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS (30-90% CHANCE FOR >12 INCHES).
RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR LOW ELEVATIONS.
- COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S F.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOCATIONS NEAR WESTERN GAP AREAS SUCH AS LIVINGSTON AND NYE WILL
EXPERIENCE STRONG WINDS THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A
STRONG IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE 10-12 MB
RANGE, WESTERLY 700 MB WINDS IN THE 40S KTS, AND A LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS
THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES SUNDAY, THE LOW
LEVEL INVERSION GIVES WAY TO EFFICIENT MIXING AND 700 MB WINDS
TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO GAP FLOW WINDS AND
TRANSITION TO A MIX DOWN WIND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
55 KTS. THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL DECREASE LEADING TO DECREASING WINDS. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE
OF GETTING A WIND GUST OVER 60 MPH.
A 500 MB WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER CREATING A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (50-90%) TO THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY BRINGING THE FIRST DECENT SNOW TO NORTH
FACES OF THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS SINCE DECEMBER. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FOR FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED LODGE WILL BE
LIMITED AS THEY WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL MONDAY MORNING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FREEZING. THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS HAVE
A 30-80% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 12 INCHES OF SNOW.
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED LODGE AND ROSCOE HAVE A 25% CHANCE
OF GETTING GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW. LOW ELEVATION LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. LOW
ELEVATION LOCATIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIT THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE HIGH 50S AND LOW 60S F SUNDAY BEFORE
DECREASING INTO THE 40S F MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A MORE
ACTIVE 500 MB PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WORKWEEK,
THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY IN THE 40S AND
LOW 50S F. AFTER THE SATURDAY NIGHT/MONDAY SYSTEM PASSES, THE NEXT
CHANCE (10-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION IS WEDNESDAY. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST CREATING A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME MODELS INDICATE BROAD FRONT RANGE LOW
PRESSURE CREATING SOUTHERLY WINDS SENDING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. THIS UNCERTAIN AS OTHER MODELS INDICATE THIS BAND WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. TORGERSON
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. GUSTS OF 35 TO 50KTS WILL BE COMMON FROM K3HT TO K6S0 AND
KLVM. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHERLY AND MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 040/063 037/045 026/048 026/046 025/051 029/052
1/B 01/B 78/W 10/B 02/W 10/U 00/U
LVM 060 040/057 036/045 023/043 023/043 024/045 027/046
1/N 01/N 98/W 10/B 13/W 10/U 01/B
HDN 068 035/064 035/046 025/049 024/046 023/053 026/053
2/R 01/B 68/W 20/B 02/W 10/U 00/B
MLS 064 034/061 034/045 026/046 025/046 023/049 027/050
1/E 00/B 55/W 10/U 01/E 00/U 00/U
4BQ 062 036/062 034/045 028/048 027/048 026/050 027/052
1/E 00/B 16/W 10/B 01/E 10/U 00/B
BHK 055 032/058 031/043 023/045 022/045 023/046 023/048
0/N 00/B 25/W 10/U 01/B 10/U 00/U
SHR 064 032/062 031/044 020/045 021/045 021/048 022/050
1/E 00/B 28/W 31/B 13/W 21/U 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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