375
FXUS65 KBYZ 082137
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
237 PM MST SUN FEB 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED GRASS FIRE RISK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, MAINLY OVER
SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA.
- STRONG WINDS, GUSTS OF 45 TO 60 MPH, AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO MONDAY. RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
MINOR IMPACTS TO MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE POSSIBLE.
- HEAVY SNOW (GENERALLY 8 TO 12 INCHES) IN THE ABSAROKA- BEARTOOTH
AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. 1 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
- COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH THE WORKWEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S F.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
STRONG CROSSWINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE INTO
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH THIS, WIND
GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 60 MPH ARE FORECAST. WHILE A DECREASING SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY ALLOW WINDS TO TEMPORARILY DECREASE THIS
EVENING, INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF STRONG
CROSSWINDS GOING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM, MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ALONG WITH THE GAP WINDS, WINDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 TO 65 MPH, STRONGEST IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FRONT. AREAS AROUND ABSAROKEE
TO RED LODGE ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FRONT COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF
GUSTY WINDS (20S AND 30S MPH) FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (MODERATE
CHANCE). ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (20 TO 40 MPH) LOOKS TO IMPACT THE FOOTHILLS
OF THE BEARTOOTH, PRYOR, AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. LOOKING FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE PLAINS, WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WITH THE
FRONT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER.
THE WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING THE WIND WILL ALSO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY THANKS
TO A DEEP FETCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE. WITH THIS, ACCUMULATING
MOUNTAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WHILE AREAS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH-
WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY (60 TO 100 PERCENT CHANCE), THE CHANCE
OF SEEING PRECIPITATION DECREASES AS YOU MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
DAKOTAS (30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE AROUND BAKER TO ALZADA). AS FAR
AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, LOOK FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START OUT AS MAINLY RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO
WET SNOW BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME RIVER VALLEY
LOCATIONS MAY STAY ALL RAIN AS THE COLD AIR PUSH BEHIND THE FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ALL THAT COLD, MINOR IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE ARE POSSIBLE WHERE PRECIPITATION DOES TURN TO ALL
SNOW. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING MINOR IMPACTS
DUE TO SNOW IS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS AROUND WHEATLAND,
GOLDEN VALLEY, AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES (MODERATE CHANCE). WHILE
THE MAIN PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA, ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS (SNOW/GRAUPEL) LOOK TO
PERSIST OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THEN
DROPS OFF ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
AS FAR AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GO, MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
MAY SEE ONLY A TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF WET SNOW,
MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH IS NORTH AND
WEST OF BILLINGS AROUND WHEATLAND, GOLDEN VALLEY, AND MUSSELSHELL
COUNTIES WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOW
FORECAST. IN THE MOUNTAINS, 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST IN
THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. OVER THE BIGHORN AND
PRYOR MOUNTAINS, LESS SNOW IS FORECAST, AROUND 1 TO 4 INCHES. AS
FAR AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS GO AHEAD OF THE SNOW, ANYWHERE FROM A
TRACE TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE FORECAST, WITH THE LOWEST
AMOUNTS OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN COOLER
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY WHEN
ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE BRINGS SNOW BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS (MAINLY
THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTHS). OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ALONG A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
WEDNESDAY. ARENDS
AVIATION
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING
KLVM, WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT TURNING WINDS NORTHERLY, SPREADING MVFR
CEILINGS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO MONDAY
MORNING, AND INCREASING RAIN/SNOW CHANCES. UNDER THE HEAVIEST
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS, BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH THE SHOWERS. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/045 025/047 026/047 026/051 029/053 028/050 029/050
78/W 10/B 02/W 10/U 00/B 01/B 12/W
LVM 034/045 023/043 025/044 025/047 028/047 027/045 027/044
98/J 10/B 13/W 20/U 00/B 11/E 23/J
HDN 032/046 025/049 023/048 023/052 025/055 025/051 027/053
58/W 20/B 02/W 20/U 00/B 11/B 12/W
MLS 032/045 026/046 024/046 023/048 025/050 024/047 025/048
45/W 00/U 00/E 10/U 00/U 00/B 01/B
4BQ 032/045 026/047 026/049 025/050 026/052 025/050 026/050
25/W 10/U 01/B 10/U 00/B 00/B 01/B
BHK 030/043 023/043 023/047 022/047 024/049 023/047 024/047
24/J 00/U 01/B 10/U 00/U 00/B 01/B
SHR 029/044 021/045 021/047 022/049 023/050 021/047 022/049
17/W 31/B 13/W 31/B 01/B 11/B 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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