478
FXUS65 KBYZ 100820
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
120 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK, BUT STILL 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY (30-60%) FOR THE SOUTHERN
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA INTO THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. 2 TO 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- AFTER A BREAK DURING THE WORK WEEK, GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY...
GENERALLY QUIET PATTERN FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD.
WEAK ENERGY SLIDING ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE JET STREAM
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER
OF ZONES FROM GOLDEN VALLEY EAST TO CUSTER COUNTY. A DUSTING OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH SUNRISE. ANOTHER AREA
OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS IS OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS MORE DIRECTLY
RELATED TO JET ENERGY CROSSING WYOMING. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS BEFORE
ENDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPPER PATTERN SHOWS LIGHTER WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
TODAY, BECOMING MORE SPLIT FLOW HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG
UPPER LOW COMES ON SHORE IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. MOISTURE FETCH OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL WORK NORTHEAST THROUGH UT/CO AND INTO
WY/ID BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY COMING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SOUTHERN
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA/BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING FURTHER SOUTH OVER TIME AND
IS NOW OPENING UP A BIT AS WELL, SO WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY TREND LOWER
OVER TIME. SPLIT FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR
CONTINUED QUIET, WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONGER PACIFIC JET STREAM NOSES IN FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER FOOTHILLS WINDS
(LIVINGSTON/BIG TIMBER/HARLOWTON) FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A
DECENT MOISTURE FETCH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS JET STREAM, AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY,
WITH AT LEAST 20-30% PRECIPITATION CHANCES SPREADING INTO THE
ADJACENT PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. SOME OF THE LATEST MODELS ARE TRYING
TO PUSH THE MOISTURE FETCH NORTH OF THE AREA SO STILL A GOOD DEAL
OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AMOUNT, AND PLACEMENT.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE INFLUENCED A BIT BY EXISTING SNOW COVER
HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN
ZONES WHERE 30S TO LOW 40S WILL BE COMMON, WHILE ELSEWHERE MOST OF
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE 40S. 40S TO LOWER 50S WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREADS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY WITH A RANGE IN BILLINGS
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S. THIS LARGE SPREAD CONTINUES
THROUGH NEXT WEEK INDICATING A LOT OF PATTERN UNCERTAINTY THAT MAY
SHAKE UP THIS STAGNANT WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR
THE PAST 6 WEEKS. STAY TUNED! CHAMBERS
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...
VLIFR FOG IS BEING OBSERVED AT KBIL AT THIS HOUR AND MAY PERSIST
THROUGH 10Z WITH BR POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND AS SOON AS THIS HAPPENS KBIL
WILL LIKELY RAPIDLY RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. KMLS/KBHK MAY HOLD ON TO TRANSIENT IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNRISE AS WELL.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST
SITES. KLVM/K6S0/K3HT SHOULD EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 20KTS
THROUGH 20Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FULLY OBSCURED THROUGH 15Z THEN
BECOME PARTIALLY OBSCURED. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046 024/047 024/051 027/052 029/050 030/050 028/048
0/U 01/B 00/U 00/U 01/E 22/O 22/O
LVM 043 025/046 026/049 026/048 028/046 030/046 027/045
0/U 02/O 10/U 00/B 01/N 33/O 43/S
HDN 048 022/048 021/052 024/054 025/052 029/052 026/052
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 01/B 12/O 22/O
MLS 044 023/045 021/045 024/048 024/048 027/048 025/047
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/E 12/O
4BQ 046 025/049 024/051 027/053 026/051 027/051 027/053
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B
BHK 042 021/048 021/047 023/049 023/047 024/047 024/046
0/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/E 12/O
SHR 045 019/048 023/051 023/052 023/050 024/051 025/051
0/B 01/B 10/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 22/O
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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