001
FXUS65 KBYZ 280007
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
507 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL WYOMING TODAY, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH COMMON. OVER
THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. ELEVATED GRASSFIRE CONDITIONS EXISTS.
- COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BRIEF COOLDOWN OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW (10 TO 30 PERCENT). LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- WARM, DRY, AND LESS WINDY TO START NEXT WEEK. OVER THE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH OF BILLINGS, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- WEATHER SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGS INCREASED
WINDS TO GAP WIND LOCATIONS (LIVINGSTON TO NYE), AS WELL AS A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST WIND HIGHLITES FOR TONIGHT. FORECAST
HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH REGARD TO THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. EARLIER THE FRONT WAS SUPPOSED TO
BASICALLY SLIDE THROUGH THE AREA IN ONE PIECE TONIGHT. THE LATEST
THINKING IS THAT IT HAS PROGRESSED ABOUT AS FAR AS ITS GOING TO GO
AT THIS TIME, AND WILL GET PUSHED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A DISTURBANCE ALOFT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. AS
SUCH THE DYNAMICS TO SHUT OFF THE WIND MACHINE OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS WILL NOT COMPLETELY DECOUPLE TONIGHT LEAVING AREAS FROM
MELVILLE SOUTH TO LIVINGSTON/BIG TIMBER/NYE STILL IN AN AREA
FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST AN OCCASIONAL GUST IN THE 60 MPH VICINITY.
ADJUSTED HIGHLITES TO END THE WARNINGS FOR THE MOUNTAINS, GOLDEN
VALLEY, STILLWATER, AND MOST OF WHEATLAND COUNTY GIVEN THE CURRENT
THINKING. PUSHED THE REST OF THE HIGHLITES THROUGH MID MORNING
TOMORROW WHEN THE MAIN PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH
WHICH SHOULD BRING AN END TO THE STRONG WIND THREAT IN THESE
REMAINING AREAS.
THE ADJUSTMENT TO THE FRONTAL BEHAVIOR HAS ALSO TRUNCATED THE
THREAT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MOST OF SE MONTANA, WITH GENERALL
A DUSTING BEING THE MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATION NOW FOR AREAS EAST OF
MILES CITY INTO THE BAKER AREA, AND NOT MUCH ELSE FOR THE REST OF
THAT AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING TODAY, WITH COOLER AND MUCH LESS WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MONTANA (GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF
BILLINGS) DUE TO A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WEST OF
THIS BOUNDARY WHERE THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS EXIST, WESTERLY
GUSTS OF 25 TO 45 MPH ARE COMMON, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH OVER
THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY, MOSTLY LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS PREVAIL WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S. AS WE PROGRESS
INTO TONIGHT, THE WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WASH OUT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT, PUSHING THE WARMER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
EAST. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THESE
WESTERLY WINDS WILL PUSH BEFORE A SECONDARY WAVE AND REINFORCING
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY PUSHES NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN-CENTRAL WYOMING (MORE ON THIS LATER). BEFORE THIS
SECONDARY WAVE/COLD FRONT ARRIVES, WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PERSIST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. WHILE WINDS LOOK TO DECOUPLE
FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS (ALLOWING WINDS
TO SUBSIDE A BIT), A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS
WEST OF BILLINGS (BIG TIMBER, MELVILLE, AND HARLOWTON) MAY SEE
ENOUGH MIXING TO KEEP GUSTY WINDS GOING. WITH THIS, INCREASING
MID-LEVEL WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT MAY
EXTEND THE THREAT OF STRONG 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENOUGH OF A
SURFACE INVERSION MAY DEVELOP TO LIMIT ANY HIGH WIND THREAT. THE
ONE PLACE WHERE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AN INVERSION MAY NOT DEVELOP IS
BIG TIMBER, AND THIS IS SUBSEQUENTLY WHERE THE CHANCE OF A 60 MPH
WIND GUST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT REMAINS THE HIGHEST (30
PERCENT CHANCE). GUSTY WINDS ALSO LOOK TO CONTINUE AROUND
LIVINGSTON TO NYE TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH GIVEN THE
INCREASED MID- LEVEL WINDS AND A DECENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
(IDA TO LWT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 10MB). BY SATURDAY MORNING,
WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE AS MID-LEVEL WINDS DECREASE AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT OVER PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TODAY REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE.
BEHIND THE SATURDAY COLD FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK
TO PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH 40S AND 50S OVER THE FOOTHILLS. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ALSO
LOOK TO DEVELOP, BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE PUSHED IT FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST, MAINLY OUT OF OUR AREA. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS
STILL A 10 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND MILES CITY
AND BAKER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN LITTLE TO NONE WHERE SNOW DOES FALL.
CONDITIONS TREND WARMER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BENIGN UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN SETS UP OVER US. WITH THIS, MUCH LESS WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF BILLINGS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OVER THE COMMON GAP WIND
LOCATIONS OF LIVINGSTON TO NYE ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM
DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING MUCH COLD AIR INTO THE REGION, THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION DOES RETURN. ARENDS
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR KLVM/K6S0/K3HT THROUGH AT
LEAST 03Z TODAY. WINDS WILL RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY AT KLVM
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE RETURNING WESTERLY AFTER 15Z. KBIL WILL
SEE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 35KT OT OF THE WEST THROUGH SUNSET
TONIGHT. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE FOR KSHR/KMLS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY POTENTIALLY STRONG
WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK. KBIL MAY ALSO SEE SOME MINOR LLWS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AND 010AGL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WEAKER, THEREFORE IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAF. LIGHT SN IS POSSIBLE NEAR KBHK BETWEEN 02-12Z, SOME PRECIP
MAY GET CLOSE TO KMLS, HOWEVER, NOTHING IS EXPECTED AT THE
TERMINAL. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/046 023/054 031/060 030/061 038/061 036/050 029/055
00/B 00/B 01/B 10/U 01/E 54/W 21/U
LVM 038/056 031/056 034/055 030/059 036/057 033/046 027/050
00/N 01/B 11/B 10/U 01/N 64/W 11/N
HDN 033/046 021/054 028/059 027/062 032/063 034/051 026/057
10/B 00/B 00/B 10/U 00/E 45/W 21/U
MLS 026/035 020/045 025/055 025/056 032/058 031/046 024/052
10/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 11/U
4BQ 032/042 023/049 029/057 028/059 034/062 033/048 027/053
00/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 15/W 21/B
BHK 022/031 015/041 022/053 021/052 031/056 028/042 021/047
41/E 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 21/B
SHR 032/048 022/051 029/056 027/057 029/060 028/046 022/051
00/N 00/B 11/B 10/U 00/B 47/W 32/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
141-172.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page