291
FXUS65 KBYZ 281223
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
523 AM MST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES MID MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS TODAY. HIGHS 50S WEST TO 30S EAST.
- WARMER AND MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE 60S
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT WITHOUT THE STRONG WINDS.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH A
GOOD CHANCE (40-70 PERCENT) FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL FOOTHILLS MAY STILL BRIEFLY
MIX DOWN REACHING 30 TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING, BUT MECHANISMS FOR
GAP WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED. SINCE WARNING/ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE
NO LONGER EXPECTED, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND HIGHLIGHTS FOR
THESE AREAS. BT
DISCUSSION
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GUSTY WINDS LINGER OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS INTO THIS MORNING
BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA MID MORNING AND BRINGS
AN END TO THE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK.
SNOWFALL WITH THIS COLD FRONT HAS DWINDLED TO LITTLE MORE THAN A
DUSTING ACROSS FALLON COUNTY AT THIS POINT, SO HAVE DROPPED
MESSAGING FOR SNOWFALL AS ANY KIND OF IMPACT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES COLDER TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S, 40S CENTRAL AREAS, AND
30S ALONG THE EASTERN STATE LINE. A 10 TO 20 MPH NORTHERLY BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT MAKING IT FEEL A BIT COLDER
(AFTERNOON WIND CHILLS 30S/40S CENTRAL AND WEST, TEENS EAST), SO
PLAN ON BUNDLING UP IF HEADING OUTDOORS TODAY.
COOL DOWN IS SHORT LIVED AS JET STREAM SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND DRAGS
COLDER AIR WITH IT. AREA COMES UNDER A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A
WOUND-UP DISTURBANCE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON SUNDAY MOVING
INTO THE 4-CORNERS VICINITY BY TUESDAY. LATEST RUNS ARE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT ITS OVERALL
ORGANIZATION LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE, THUS IT STILL LOOKS LIKE ANY
IMPACTFUL WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
AT THE SAME TIME THE JET STREAM STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH LOCKING UP
COLDER AIR AND THUS OUR PORTION OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES STAYS IN
BETWEEN POTENTIAL SYSTEMS FOR A QUIET END OF THE WEEKEND AND START
TO THE WORK WEEK AHEAD. WEAK SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP A GOOD DEAL OF SUN AROUND AND
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME THOUGH WILL NOT SEE THE STRONG WINDS
THAT WE SAW THIS PAST WEEK ACCOMPANYING THOSE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES. A GOOD CHANCE TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY THE BEGINNING
OF METEOROLOGICAL SPRING.
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS A SYNOPTIC SCALE TROF THAT SLIDES IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THE PACIFIC. MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS WEST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE STRENGTHENING JET
STREAM COMES IN OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND DIVES INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, WHICH OVER TIME STRETCHES THIS SYSTEM OUT AND DISRUPTS
THE ORGANIZATION OF THE PORTION OVER OUR AREA, LIMITING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IT COULD HAVE. THAT SAID LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, ALONG WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS
SYSTEM ISN'T VERY COLD BY EARLY MARCH STANDARDS SO RAIN OR A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS CURRENTLY THE ADVERTISED PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
TURNING SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. THE EXCEPTION IS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL FOOTHILLS (KLVM, K6S0) WHERE WESTERLY WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY, BUT TURN EASTERLY BY
THIS EVENING (AFT 01Z). SOME LOCAL STRATUS AND FLURRIES MAY OCCUR
THIS MORNING NEAR KMLS AND KBHK...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 023/054 032/059 031/062 040/062 036/051 030/052
0/U 00/B 01/E 10/U 01/E 64/W 21/B
LVM 055 029/057 035/055 031/058 037/056 031/045 027/046
0/N 00/B 12/W 10/U 03/W 73/W 11/N
HDN 045 021/053 027/058 027/062 032/064 033/049 025/053
0/B 00/B 01/E 00/U 01/E 65/W 21/U
MLS 034 019/046 025/055 024/056 032/060 030/043 022/047
0/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/E 33/W 10/U
4BQ 042 023/050 028/057 028/058 035/062 032/048 025/048
0/B 00/B 00/E 00/U 00/B 34/W 21/B
BHK 031 014/042 022/053 023/055 032/058 025/042 019/043
1/B 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 23/W 11/B
SHR 047 022/052 028/055 027/058 029/060 028/045 022/046
0/U 00/B 02/W 10/U 01/B 57/W 32/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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