553
FXUS65 KBYZ 010701
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1201 AM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE (60%) OF
LIGHT SNOW MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF BILLINGS.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (MAINLY LIVINGSTON TO
NYE) BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHT
COOL DOWN WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (30 TO 70 PERCENT).
DISCUSSION
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. WEAK
WESTERLY FLOW AND A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL KEEP MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ONE
CAVEAT IS A PACIFIC DISTURBANCE THAT COMES ONSHORE IN NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA SUNDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES EAST INTO WYOMING BY MONDAY
NIGHT. MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY AHEAD OF AND WRAPPED AROUND THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TO THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
BIGHORN/PRYOR MOUNTAINS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN TRACKING FURTHER NORTH RUN TO RUN
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES AWAY FROM THE
MOUNTAINS ARE NEAR ZERO WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LATEST PROBABILITIES SHOW A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, WITH AROUND A 10%
CHANCE AT ELEVATIONS DOWN TO RED LODGE'S. FOR SNOWFALL,
PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION ARE AROUND
25% OR LESS. PROBABILITIES FOR THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS ARE ABOUT
HALF OF THOSE FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS.
TEMPERATURES TREND FROM THE 40S/50S SUNDAY TO MAINLY IN THE 60S
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SO, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER DURING
THIS WARM UP COMPARED TO THE WARMER DAYS THIS PAST WEEK, THOUGH
LATEST MODELS ARE TRENDING STRONGER WITH WIND SPEEDS FOR GAP
FAVORED LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
GUSTS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS IN LIVINGSTON (58+ MPH) PEAK AROUND
40 PERCENT LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM REMAIN HIGH IN THE LATEST NBM RUN (60-80%). CURRENTLY
PROBABILITIES FOR 0.15 OF AN INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS RANGE FROM 10% IN BAKER TO 40% FROM BILLINGS
WEST INTO THE FOOTHILLS, FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. MOUNTAINS ARE SHOWING 50 TO 70% CHANCES FOR A THIRD OF AN
INCH OR MORE DURING THIS PERIOD WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
ADVERTISED ABOVE 7000 FEET. OVERALL THIS SYSTEM ISN'T VERY COLD SO
NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTFUL SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AT THIS
TIME.
TAKING A DEEPER LOOK AT THE SYSTEM, IT DOESN'T LOOK THAT
IMPRESSIVE OVERALL. THE SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE AS A BROAD SYNOPTIC
TROF THAT GETS STRETCHED OUT FURTHER AS IT ARRIVES OVER THE
N. ROCKIES BY THE JET STREAM DIVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROF, PULLING ANY SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZATION
APART OVER OUR AREA. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER GROUPS, THE
GFS/GEFS SEEM TO BE DRIVING THE STRONGER POPS/PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS WITHIN THE NBM, WHILE THE ECMWF AND OTHER LONGER RANGE
MODELS ARE MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS. SO, AT THIS POINT AM NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE AN
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM, AND ECMWF EFI BACKS THIS UP, BUT IT WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOLER OVER THE AREA THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S PERSIST TO END THE WORK WEEK AND
BEGIN THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BROAD UPPER TROF LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. ENERGY FOR PRECIPITATION STAYS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE. MOUNTAINS WILL STILL
SEE OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHANCES (30%)
FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS EARLY
MONDAY (00Z) POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057 033/058 032/064 040/063 038/052 032/052 032/053
0/B 01/E 00/U 01/N 64/R 11/B 22/S
LVM 057 036/055 031/059 038/056 032/046 028/046 028/047
0/B 12/W 00/U 03/W 73/O 12/S 22/O
HDN 055 030/057 028/064 033/065 035/053 029/054 028/053
0/B 00/E 00/U 01/E 65/R 21/B 22/O
MLS 046 025/054 026/059 033/061 034/047 025/050 027/049
0/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 33/R 11/B 11/B
4BQ 052 030/056 029/060 033/063 035/050 027/050 029/050
0/B 00/E 00/U 00/B 24/R 11/B 12/S
BHK 044 023/055 024/056 032/060 030/045 022/046 025/048
0/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 13/O 11/B 11/B
SHR 054 030/057 028/059 030/061 030/046 024/047 023/048
0/B 01/B 10/U 00/B 47/R 32/O 22/O
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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