325
FXUS65 KBYZ 011948
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1248 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE (30 TO 60 PERCENT)
OF LIGHT SNOW MONDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF BILLINGS.
- WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (MAINLY LIVINGSTON TO
NYE) WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHT
COOL DOWN WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (30 TO 70 PERCENT).
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH
THIS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, OUTSIDE OF THE COOLER CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MONTANA
TODAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LESS, BUT WILL START TO BECOME BREEZY
OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS BY TUESDAY. WHILE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EXISTS TODAY, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO
MONDAY AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES OUR REGION TO THE SOUTH. WHILE
THE MAJORITY OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF BILLINGS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (30
TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE). WHERE SNOW DOES FALL, ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT WITH ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE INCHES,
GREATEST OVER SOUTH AND WEST FACING SLOPES. WHILE LESS LIKELY,
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE (10 TO 20 PERCENT) THAT A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILL OVER ONTO THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS AROUND THE
ABSAROKA- BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS
(MAINLY AROUND THE COMMON GAP LOCATIONS OF LIVINGSTON TO NYE)
WEDNESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH THIS,
THERE IS CURRENTLY A MODERATE CHANCE OF SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL
WINDS (58+ MPH GUSTS) WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON AROUND
LIVINGSTON TO NYE. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF ANY STRONG MID- LEVEL
WINDS MAY LIMIT THE SURFACE WINDS A BIT.
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA. WITH THIS, PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE HIGHER HILLS AND FOOTHILLS (SNOW LEVELS
STARTING AROUND 6000 FEET BEFORE DROPPING AROUND 4000 FEET). IN
THE MOUNTAINS, ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED. WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, MODELS HAVE COME INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT
ON THE MAIN ENERGY DIVING SOUTH OF OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE TIED MAINLY TO THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. THEREFORE, AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED DOWN A BIT, BUT ENSEMBLES
ARE STILL ADVERTISING ANYWHERE FROM A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, GREATEST
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WHERE THERE IS A 20 TO 35 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION. WITH THAT
SAID, DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY LIMIT
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS, SO WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW
AMOUNTS TREND AS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BEGIN TO PICK UP ON THIS
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE, THE CHANCE OF SEEING AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW
OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS LOW TO ZERO, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
AROUND RED LODGE (40 PERCENT). OVER THE MOUNTAINS, GENERALLY 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST, WITH UP 10 INCHES OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE
OF SEEING 12 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THESE
MOUNTAIN RANGES IS 20 PERCENT.
ON FRIDAY, A SECONDARY WAVE WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MAY BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, BUT ACCUMULATION LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.
ARENDS
AVIATION
WHILE MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO MONDAY, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING, PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, CAUSING OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS OF THE HIGH
TERRAIN (30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE). ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/061 032/066 038/064 038/052 032/052 032/053 035/059
01/E 00/U 01/N 64/W 11/B 22/J 23/W
LVM 035/056 031/060 039/057 032/046 028/046 028/047 032/051
11/E 10/U 02/W 73/W 12/J 22/W 34/W
HDN 029/061 027/065 031/066 035/053 029/054 028/053 030/061
01/E 00/U 00/E 65/W 21/B 22/W 24/W
MLS 026/055 026/059 032/062 034/047 025/050 027/049 030/055
00/E 00/U 00/B 33/W 11/B 11/B 23/W
4BQ 030/059 029/061 032/063 035/050 027/050 029/050 029/058
00/B 00/U 00/B 24/W 11/B 12/W 13/W
BHK 023/057 024/057 030/060 030/045 022/046 025/048 026/053
00/B 00/U 00/B 13/W 11/B 11/B 22/W
SHR 030/059 029/059 028/062 030/046 024/047 023/048 025/057
11/B 20/U 00/B 47/W 32/W 22/W 23/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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