888
FXUS65 KBYZ 022011
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
111 PM MST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
- WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (MAINLY LIVINGSTON TO
NYE) TUESDAY NIGHT. (AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 50+ MPH)
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (30 TO
70 PERCENT).
- MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
A QUICK HITTING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARDS THROUGH
WY/CO THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO SOME OF OUR MOUNTAINS ALONG AND NEAR THE MT/WY BORDER.
THIS SNOW WILL AMOUNT TO 2" OR LESS IN TOTAL.
AS WE ENTER TUESDAY, RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION WHICH
WILL BRING BACK THE WARM, DRY, AND CALM WEATHER. FORECAST HIGHS
ACROSS THE REGION (EXCLUDING MOUNTAINS) WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE
60F. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE VALLEYS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT (ROUNDUP,
HARDIN, BILLINGS WEST END) COULD APPROACH 70F. IN ADDITION TO
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN VERY DRY
CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD MIN-RH VALUES IN THE TEENS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED. THE GOOD NEWS THOUGH, IS THAT WINDS AT THE SURFACE
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LIMITED.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RH VALUES ARE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THERE LOOKS TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME
GAP WIND ACTIVITY AT LIVINGSTON AND NYE. MODELS SHOW A IDA-LWT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 9-11MB BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH IS
ENOUGH TO GET GUSTS IN THE 40S MPH RANGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING
AT OVER YNP TODAY COULD AID IN A BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
PARK AND A TIGHTER GRADIENT. ADDITIONALLY, 700MB WINDS INCREASING
TO 30KTS OUT OF THE WEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD COULD BE THE
FINAL INGREDIENT NEEDED TO GET 50S-60MPH GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE AT THIS TIME FOR WIND GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON REACHING 58MPH
WEDNESDAY AM.
MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT AROUND THE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO WESTERN N. AMERICA MID TO LATE WEEK. WHILE DETAILS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, THE BROAD PICTURE FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
NOW BOTH SHOWING A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST BEFORE PART OF THE ENERGY TRANSLATES INTO A CUTOF LOW OVER
THE DESERT SW. BOTH OF THESE LONG RANGE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TOUGH SKIRT POLEWARD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THROUGH OUR
REGION, HOWEVER, AT DIFFERENT STRENGTHS. REGARDLESS, THIS LOOKS TO
BE A GOOD SOURCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CWA. MOISTURE
PULLED INTO THE REGION BY THE DIGGING PARENT TROUGH SHOULD BE
EASILY ACCESSED BY THE TRAILING ENERGY. THIS APPEARS TO BE A TWO
DAY EVENT SPANNING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THE PRECIP
FALLING ON THURSDAY. THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 0.5-1" OF SWE WHILE
THE FOOTHILLS IN OUR WESTERN ZONES PICK UP 0.5" OF RAIN WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS MIXED IN. OVERALL, IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIP BELOW 5500FT WILL FALL AS RAIN KEEPING THE SNOW
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE WEATHER
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE. MULTIPLE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES COULD BE IN STORE. THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SO BE SURE TO CHECK THE FORECAST GOING
FORWARDS. WMR
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS TODAY BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA AND
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL RESULT IN
PERIODIC OBSCURATIONS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/065 039/065 038/050 033/051 032/058 041/061 038/057
00/U 00/B 46/R 42/W 10/N 12/W 35/W
LVM 031/061 038/058 035/045 028/045 028/052 037/056 037/052
00/U 01/N 77/O 32/J 11/N 21/N 35/W
HDN 028/066 031/065 033/052 030/052 029/060 037/063 034/059
00/U 00/U 36/R 43/W 11/N 12/W 35/W
MLS 027/061 031/061 030/048 027/049 029/057 038/057 032/053
00/U 00/U 12/O 11/B 00/N 12/W 24/W
4BQ 028/062 033/063 033/053 030/046 028/056 036/058 034/057
00/U 00/U 02/R 32/W 10/U 11/B 24/W
BHK 025/058 032/060 027/047 023/043 024/054 033/053 029/052
00/U 00/U 01/E 11/E 01/N 11/N 23/W
SHR 027/060 028/063 030/050 027/045 022/055 030/058 029/056
00/U 00/U 26/R 64/W 21/U 12/W 25/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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