074
FXUS65 KBYZ 030818
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
118 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (MAINLY LIVINGSTON TO
NYE) TONIGHT. (50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 50+ MPH)
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT WEEK. 20-50% CHANCES
FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 70 F FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH
FRIDAY. SLIGHT COOL DOWN WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
- MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY...
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL CREATE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE HIGH 50S
AND 60S F ACROSS THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN TEENS AND 20S %. STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
EITHER OF THESE DAYS HOWEVER, HELPING US AVOID ELEVATED FIRE
CONDITIONS. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A
FAVORABLE FOOTHILLS PRESSURE GRADIENT SET UP LEADING TO STRONG
WINDS FOR WESTERN GAP AREAS. LOCATIONS SUCH AS LIVINGSTON AND NYE
HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF GETTING A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH.
WEATHER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE WEDNESDAY AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. A PIECE OF ENERGY
FROM THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH CREATING A LARGE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
HELP TO TURN WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND ADVECT PACIFIC MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THE FIRST PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCES (50-90%) FOR PRECIPITATION ARE LOCATIONS
WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WITH 20-40% CHANCES FOR LOCATIONS TO THE
EAST.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION AS RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WHERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS
EXPECTED. LOCATIONS FROM MELVILLE, LIVINGSTON, AND RED LODGE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH RED LODGE HAVING A 70%
CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. THE BEST CHANCE
(20%) OF GETTING SNOW FLAKES FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS IS FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED (<0.5 INCH).
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS (ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH, CRAZY, BIGHORN) HAVE A
50-75% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM. WEST AND NORTH FACING SLOPES SHOULD SEE THE GREATEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND
50S F BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS
ALSO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND, THOUGH
DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME. MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR THIS
POTENTIAL IMPACTFUL WEATHER. TORGERSON
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR INTO THIS MORNING. SW WINDS
BEGIN INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING KLVM BY
THIS EVENING. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 037/065 038/050 032/050 032/058 041/061 038/062
0/U 00/B 27/R 53/S 00/N 11/N 14/R
LVM 059 036/058 035/046 029/043 028/052 037/056 037/055
0/N 00/N 68/O 53/S 00/N 11/N 24/O
HDN 064 029/065 033/052 029/050 029/060 037/063 034/062
0/U 00/U 26/R 63/O 10/N 11/N 24/R
MLS 059 030/061 030/048 025/047 029/057 038/057 032/057
0/U 00/U 02/O 21/B 00/N 11/B 13/R
4BQ 060 032/063 032/053 028/045 028/056 036/058 034/062
0/U 00/U 02/R 42/S 00/U 11/B 12/R
BHK 057 030/060 025/047 022/041 024/054 033/053 029/053
0/U 00/U 01/B 21/E 00/N 11/N 12/O
SHR 059 028/063 030/051 025/043 022/055 030/058 029/060
0/U 00/U 16/R 75/S 10/U 11/B 13/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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