513
FXUS65 KBYZ 041732
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1032 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAINS, HIGHEST FOR NORTH ASPECTS. WET SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1
TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG FOOTHILLS (E.G. RED LODGE & STORY),
WITH A 30% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
- WARM WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
STRONG GAP WINDS FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FOOTHILLS PRESSURE
GRADIENT (9-11 MB) BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN. LIVINGSTON AND NYE HAVE A
50% CHANCE OF GETTING A WIND GUST OF GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S F
AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN TEENS AND 20S%.
THINGS WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE
SPREADING OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SNOW FOR ALL OF OUR MOUNTAIN RANGES
(CRAZY, BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA, BIGHORN) WITH A 40-80% CHANCE OF
GETTING GREATER THAN 8 INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
BEARTOOTHS AND LOWEST IN THE BIGHORNS. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON NORTH SLOPES. FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SUCH AS MELVILLE,
RED LODGE, AND STORY ARE LIKELY TO SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WITH
ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY (70%) GREATER THAN 2 INCHES FOR RED LODGE
AND STORY. LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MOSTLY RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM WITH THE BEST CHANCE (10-30%) FOR SNOW BEING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGHER HILLS OVER THE
PLAINS ARE LIKELY TO SEE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
KEEPING THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS (50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
0.25 INCHES). PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WORK INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40-55 F RANGE. ABOVE
AVERAGE HEIGHTS RETURN FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND DRY CONDITIONS.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 50 MPH LIKELY (80-90%) FOR THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND GENERALLY <50% CHANCES FOR THE PLAINS. ANOTHER
TROUGH COULD IMPACT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES, THOUGH NOT MUCH
MORE CAN BE SAID AT THIS TIME. TORGERSON
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
WIND AT KLVM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z GUSTY
NW WINDS (UP TO 25KTS) ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO KLVM AROUND 06Z AND SHOULD REACH
KBIL AROUND 15Z. WHILE CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, ANY SITE COULD DIP DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE
PRECIPITATION. IF/WHEN KLVM SWITCHES TO SN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED AFTER 00Z. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 039/051 031/049 031/060 041/067 044/062 029/044
0/B 27/R 63/O 10/N 00/N 14/W 54/J
LVM 060 035/044 029/043 026/052 038/059 043/056 026/040
0/N 79/O 63/S 10/N 00/N 14/W 43/J
HDN 066 032/051 027/049 026/059 037/068 041/063 027/044
0/U 17/R 73/O 10/N 00/N 15/W 65/J
MLS 061 029/048 024/045 027/059 040/066 040/055 026/039
0/U 03/R 31/B 00/N 00/N 14/W 43/J
4BQ 063 033/053 026/044 026/057 039/065 040/063 027/041
0/U 02/R 41/B 00/B 00/B 03/W 54/J
BHK 061 028/048 022/041 023/055 036/062 036/055 022/036
0/U 01/B 30/B 00/N 00/N 13/W 53/J
SHR 064 030/050 024/042 019/055 029/063 035/062 023/040
0/U 07/O 84/S 10/B 00/U 03/W 66/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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