468
FXUS65 KBYZ 041913
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1213 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER WITH LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS
SNOW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, HIGHEST FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH ASPECTS. WET SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 4 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG FOOTHILLS (E.G. RED
LODGE & STORY), WITH A 40% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES.
- WARM WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUSTS 60+ MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
GRADIENT AND RESULTANT WIND GUSTS IN THE GAP AREAS ARE DECREASING,
AND SEE NO FURTHER WIND ISSUES FOR THE FOOTHILLS BETWEEN NOW AND
TONIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOOK FOR MOSTLY 30-40 MPH GUSTS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF ALONG THE WA/OR COAST AND DIRTY SW
FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TO EASTERN MT. TODAY'S
AIR MASS IS QUITE WARM AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S.
WHERE THERE IS AMPLE SUNSHINE AND A DEVELOPING THERMAL LOW
(SHERIDAN TO BROADUS) TEMPS MAY APPROACH 70F. AS THE WESTERN TROF
MOVES INLAND WE WILL SEE A COLD FRONT ARRIVE IN OUR WEST LATE
TONIGHT. THIS WILL END THE CURRENT STRETCH OF VERY WARM DAYS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN, WET SNOW
AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. REGARDING
MOUNTAIN SNOW, NW-N ASPECTS WILL BE FAVORED, AND IN THESE AREAS
LOOK FOR A SOLID 6-12" SNOWFALL BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SYNOPTIC ASCENT BEFORE THE TROF SPLITS LOOKS TO LINGER LONGEST
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT, SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOCAL
12-15" TOTALS IN THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE ABSAROKAS SOUTH OF
LIVINGSTON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THINGS EVOLVE INTO MORE
OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN PRECIP AND THIS IS WHERE BIGGER QUESTIONS
EMERGE. THE NORTHERLY AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL IMPACT THE PRYORS AND BIGHORNS AND HAVE ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES AND IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON US-14
THROUGH BURGESS JCT. THE TROF PASSAGE WILL ALLOW FOR A MODEST
PERIOD OF CANADIAN COLD ADVECTION, WHICH WILL DRIVE SNOW LEVELS
DOWN TO THE GROUND FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. IF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER OUR WEST THRU 12Z FRI (UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
HERE), KEEPING ITS DIFFLUENT PORTION OVER OUR AREA INTO FRIDAY,
WE COULD SEE SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATE NOT ONLY ALONG NORTH FACING
FOOTHILLS LIKE RED LODGE, PRYOR & STORY, BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH TO INCLUDE THE HILLS NEAR COLUMBUS, BILLINGS, LAME
DEER AND SHERIDAN. BRIEF TRAVEL IMPACTS COULD IMPACT PORTIONS OF
I-90 AND US-212 INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES MAY BE
ENHANCED ON FRIDAY BY A SECONDARY WEAKER SHORTWAVE IN THE UNSTABLE
NW FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN TROF. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF 4+ INCHES OF SNOW AT RED LODGE & STORY.
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FOOTHILLS THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF 1-2" OF
SNOW OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER HILLS. AS FAR AS PRECIP GOES,
LOOK FOR 0.10-0.25" AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY,
AND 0.50-0.80" OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THIS WOULD BE VERY BENEFICIAL
AS WE MOVE THRU ANOTHER WARM, DRY AND WINDY WEEKEND. TEMPS
THURSDAY & FRIDAY SHOULD MAX OUT IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
TURNING TO THE WEEKEND, ONCE THE LATE WEEK TROF EXITS, WE WILL
TRANSITION QUICKLY BACK TO RISING HEIGHTS AND TIGHTENING
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE IDA-LWT GRADIENT
INCREASING TO 14-18MB, WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS YIELDS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 50+ MPH GUSTS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70-80% CHANCE OF 60 MPH GUSTS FROM LIVINGSTON TO
BIG TIMBER & HARLOWTON. GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE A POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL TIME PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANYONE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL ON I-90 OR US-191 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND WILL BE RISING TEMPS, PERHAPS
NEARING 70F BY SUNDAY, ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES TO 20% IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS, DEPENDING
ON WHETHER THE EXPECTED PRECIP OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS
MATERIALIZES.
NEXT BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OCCURS SOMETIME MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS AND INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL AS BROAD TROFFING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TAKES SHAPE.
WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL AS COOLER AIR
AGAIN SAGS OUT OF CANADA. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH IN DETAILS SO
MONITOR THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE LOWER ELEVATION TRAVEL
IMPACTS (PERHAPS YOUR KID IS RETURNING TO COLLEGE AFTER SPRING
BREAK) SO THIS IS SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF.
JKL
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
WIND AT KLVM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ELSEWHERE, LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z GUSTY
NW WINDS (UP TO 25KTS) ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO KLVM AROUND 06Z AND SHOULD REACH
KBIL AROUND 15Z. WHILE CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT
THIS TIME, ANY SITE COULD DIP DOWN TO MVFR DURING THE
PRECIPITATION. IF/WHEN KLVM SWITCHES TO SN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED AFTER 00Z. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/051 030/049 030/058 042/067 040/055 028/042 024/044
17/W 73/W 10/N 00/N 15/W 64/J 21/N
LVM 035/044 029/043 027/052 039/059 041/053 025/037 020/040
58/J 74/J 10/N 00/N 14/W 54/J 22/J
HDN 032/053 027/050 027/060 037/068 037/058 027/043 022/045
06/W 72/W 10/N 00/N 25/W 65/J 32/J
MLS 029/048 026/045 027/058 041/065 037/052 026/038 018/038
02/W 30/B 00/N 00/N 14/W 44/J 11/B
4BQ 033/055 028/044 027/057 039/067 036/058 028/039 019/040
01/B 51/B 00/U 00/U 13/W 65/J 21/B
BHK 028/049 023/041 023/055 036/063 033/051 022/036 014/037
00/B 20/E 00/N 00/N 13/W 54/J 21/B
SHR 030/053 028/042 020/054 029/064 032/055 022/037 015/039
06/W 84/J 10/U 00/B 14/W 66/J 32/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 3 PM
MST FRIDAY FOR ZONE 171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 3 PM
MST FRIDAY FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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