451
FXUS65 KBYZ 050815
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
115 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN, WET SNOW AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TO
OUR REGION; STARTING IN WEST AND SPREADING EAST TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- SNOWFALL FORECASTS HAVE INCREASED FOR THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS.
- WARM AGAIN WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE
WEEKEND. GUSTS 60+ MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TROF MOVING INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST WITH ITS AXIS EXTENDING FROM IDAHO INTO NE ARIZONA. STRONG
DIFFLUENT FLOW WAS EVIDENT ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA WHERE RADAR
RETURNS WERE INCREASING.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF RAIN,
WET SNOW AND ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW. IN THE MOUNTAINS...NW-N
ASPECTS WILL BE FAVORED WITH ONE TO TWO FEET OF ACCUMULATION OVER
HIGHER PEAKS. FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
INITIALLY BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW TONIGHT. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE RAIN SHOWERS SPREAD WEST TO EAST TODAY BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY SNOW THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR BEING PULLED IN, BUT ALONG WITH
DYNAMIC COOLING THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR ADVECTION WE SHOULD SEE
SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS BY FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
THOSE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS OR HIGHER HILLY AREAS
OVER THE PLAINS. NORTHERLY WINDS DEEPEN TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATING SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH
DECENT LIFT ALONG NORTH FACING SLOPES INCLUDING RED LODGE.
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED, THUS WE HAVE ADDED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS, AS
WELL AS THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS.
TRENDS AND CHANGES...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE
BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS (2-6 INS) AND SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS
(UP TO 3 INS) FROM 5 PM TODAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY. WINTER STORM
WARNING ISSUED FOR CRAZIES AND ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS UNTIL
11 AM FRIDAY. THERE IS A HINT FROM RECENT DETERMINISTIC MODEL
RUNS OF POSSIBLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM BILLINGS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL MONITOR OVERALL MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
TRENDS...BUT THIS COULD POTENTIALLY BE A TRAVEL IMPACT FOR THE
BILLINGS AREA FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE, AND I-90 FROM BILLINGS
SOUTH THROUGH HARDIN AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY.
IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE DIFFICULT
BACKCOUNTRY CONDITIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. TRAVEL OVER BOZEMAN
PASS MAY BE IMPACTED AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING. MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR I-90 FROM LIVINGSTON TO COLUMBUS AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH ROADS MAY BE MOSTLY SLUSHY.
US-212 WILL SEE SNOW COVERED OR SLUSHY ROAD CONDITIONS IN THE RED
LODGE AREA BY TONIGHT. TRAVEL IMPACTS WILL ALSO IMPACT I-90 IN
THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS WITH SLUSHY AND SLICK CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, MODELS MAY BE TRENDING TOWARD BETTER
UPSLOPE AND DYNAMIC FORCING FOR THE BILLINGS AREA SOUTH,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OVER I-90 FROM BILLINGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN BIG HORN COUNTY. PLEASE MONITOR FUTURE
FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FRIDAY.
THE MAIN TROF AXIS MOVES EAST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE IN UNSTABLE NW FLOW BEHIND THE MAIN
SYSTEM.
TURNING TO THE WEEKEND, ONCE THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM EXITS, WE WILL
QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO RISING HEIGHTS AND TIGHTENING
DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS. ENSEMBLES SHOW THE IDA-LWT GRADIENT
INCREASING TO 14-18MB, WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASING WESTERLY MID
LEVEL WINDS YIELDS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR 50+ MPH GUSTS. LOCAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A 70-80% CHANCE OF 60 MPH GUSTS FROM LIVINGSTON TO
BIG TIMBER & HARLOWTON. GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE A POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-
FRONTAL TIME PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. ANYONE PLANNING TO
TRAVEL ON I-90 OR US-191 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS
CROSSWINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND WILL BE RISING TEMPS, PERHAPS
NEARING 70F BY SUNDAY, ALONG WITH HUMIDITIES TO 20% IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS COULD LEAD TO CONCERNS OVER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE EXPECTED
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS MATERIALIZES.
NEXT BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OCCURS SOMETIME MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL QUITE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL AS BROAD TROFFING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TAKES
SHAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, AND POSSIBLY SNOWFALL AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
AS COOLER AIR ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. MODEL SPREAD
IS QUITE HIGH YET, SO MONITOR THE FORECAST. THERE COULD BE LOWER
ELEVATION TRAVEL IMPACTS. BT
AVIATION
WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MOVE INTO KLVM FROM THE WEST, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND REACHING KBIL AND KSHR BY LATE MORNING AND KMLS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS SHOWERS INCREASE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR WILL BECOME MORE COMMON.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WITH THE SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 031/050 031/058 041/067 040/058 030/042 024/046
7/R 83/O 10/N 00/N 15/W 74/J 21/N
LVM 044 029/043 026/051 038/059 040/055 025/037 021/042
9/O 83/S 11/N 00/N 14/W 54/J 22/J
HDN 052 027/050 028/058 036/068 036/059 029/043 021/048
6/R 83/S 10/N 00/N 26/W 75/J 32/J
MLS 046 026/045 027/057 040/067 036/053 029/040 020/042
1/B 40/B 00/N 00/N 15/W 54/J 11/B
4BQ 055 027/045 027/056 039/068 039/059 029/042 021/044
0/B 41/B 00/U 00/U 14/W 65/J 21/B
BHK 049 021/040 022/054 036/063 031/051 024/039 016/040
0/B 21/B 00/N 00/N 14/W 64/J 11/B
SHR 052 025/043 022/054 029/065 034/058 023/039 015/042
6/R 84/S 10/U 00/U 14/W 77/J 42/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 56-66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONE 199.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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