478
FXUS65 KBYZ 061237
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
537 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING, DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TODAY.
- WARMER WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUSTS 60+ MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW.
UPDATE
AN AREA OF SPLIT FLOW IS GRADUALLY SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL WAVE OVER NORTHERN WY. THIS
HAS ALLOWED NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRACK EAST, SHOWERS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST
OVER NORTH CENTRAL WY AND SOUTHEAST MT, AS FORCING WANES. THAT
BEING SAID, UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WORKING INTO WESTERN AREAS HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS, MOVING INTO THE USPLOPE REGIONS
OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS. SNOTELS IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING
ARE SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM NEAR 0.5 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT,
TO NEAR AN INCH, AND EVEN CLOSE TO 2 INCHES UP IN THE CRAZY
MOUNTAINS. MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE FOR THE REGION.
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 DEGREES C/KM, AND A
CONVERGENCE ZONE FOR AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF BILLINGS, SHOULD KEEP
A FOCUS OF SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS (LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE PROGS THIS). AS A
RESULT, HAVE INCREASED POPS, SNOW AMOUNTS AND EXTENDED THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ON
THE NORTHERLY SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS, WITH A FEW INCHES
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, AND UP IN THE BIGHORNS/PRYORS. THE REST OF
THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS REMAIN IN GOOD SHAPE AND WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME. STP
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
CURRENTLY, A MID LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ITS WAY TROUGH NORTHERN WY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT. THIS IS BRINGING NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO MID LEVELS, AIDING IN SOME UP UPSLOPE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF SNOW FOR NORTH FACING SLOPES SOUTH OF BILLINGS. ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, PRECIP IS FALLING IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW FOR THE HIGHER HILLS. DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS CAN EXPECT TO GET ANOTHER 5-10
INCHES WITH ANOTHER 4-8 INCHES IN THE BIGHORNS AND PRYORS AND A
FEW INCHES IN THE CRAZIES. AS FAR AS AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MT, THERE
IS LOW CHANCES (10-30%) FOR AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIP
THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO COOL
DRAMATICALLY WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
STILL USE CAUTION ON THE MORNING COMMUTE AND CHECK ROAD
CONDITIONS IF NECESSARY. INTO THIS WEEKEND, HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD BACK IN AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A TIGHT
WESTERLY PATTERN. THE ASSOCIATED PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT FAVORS
STRONG GAP WINDS FOR THE LIVINGSTON/NYE AREA INCREASES THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. ADDITIONALLY, 700 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO 50-70 KTS. THIS GREATLY INCREASES
CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY
FOR SUNDAY. SATURDAY, THERE IS ABOUT A 60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO AT
LEAST 60 MPH FOR THE LIVINGSTON/NYE AREAS. MOVING INTO SUNDAY,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60 MPH (60-75%) FOR
THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 70 MPH IS
ABOUT 40-60% AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT, HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN
PLACE FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WATCH THE FORECAST AS IT WILL EVOLVE IN THE
COMING DAYS. HIGHER PRESSURES FROM A POTENTIAL FRONT FROM THE
NORTH LOOKS TO MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING, QUICKLY DECREASING CHANCES
FOR STRONG WINDS. THERE'S STILL UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO PRECIP
TIMING AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT CURRENTLY THERE ARE
MODERATE CHANCES FOR NORTHERN WY AND SOUTH CENTRAL MT FOR AT LEAST
A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW CHANCES
(20-30% CHANCE) EXIST FOR SOUTHEAST MT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WILL BE IN THE 40S TODAY, 50S SATURDAY AND
60S SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE 30S FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TUESDAY.
TS
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO THE SNOW. VFR IS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. SW WINDS BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT KLVM TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30KTS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048 030/061 042/068 034/051 030/043 026/050 034/057
3/J 10/N 00/N 46/W 84/J 22/W 33/W
LVM 043 028/053 041/060 039/052 026/040 023/049 034/055
4/J 01/N 10/N 35/W 64/J 13/J 33/W
HDN 048 027/060 037/069 031/052 028/045 024/052 031/058
2/B 10/N 00/N 56/W 85/J 22/W 33/W
MLS 044 027/058 041/066 029/044 027/043 024/047 030/052
2/B 00/N 00/N 34/J 63/J 11/B 23/W
4BQ 043 026/059 039/069 032/052 029/044 024/049 032/055
4/J 00/U 00/U 23/W 74/J 11/B 22/W
BHK 040 024/054 037/063 026/043 023/041 020/044 026/048
2/J 00/N 00/N 23/J 64/J 11/B 22/W
SHR 041 020/057 030/066 029/054 024/041 018/049 027/055
7/J 00/U 00/U 24/W 76/J 32/J 23/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 34-42-63-141-172-228.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS
MORNING FOR ZONES 56-66.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 58-64-65-138-169.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 65-66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 67-68.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 68.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING
FOR ZONE 199.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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