855
FXUS65 KBYZ 062328
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
428 PM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUSTS ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE 25 TO 50 MPH RANGE, STRONGEST ON
SUNDAY.
- STRONG TO DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS (60-75 MPH) ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. STRONGEST WINDS ON SUNDAY.
- LOCALLY ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH
VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. GREATEST CONCERNS IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED MINIMAL PRECIP THIS WEEK.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WERE EXPIRED
THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH THAT BROUGHT HEAVY MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL DEPARTS THE REGION. RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS WELL AS A STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WEST. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW IN
SOUTHERN CANADA. THE MAIN IMPACTS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG
TO DANGEROUS WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WITH
SUNDAY BEING THE WINDIEST DAY.
GETTING INTO THE FORECAST, A WEAK SHOWER OR TWO MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO BE LIGHT. A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL DEVELOP INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH A
SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WHERE THE LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES A 14-19MB GRADIENT THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND GAP LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH THE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN GUSTS IN THE 40S TO 50S MPH FOR
THE GAPS. FOR THE US-191 CORRIDOR, 700MB WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 40
TO 55 KNOTS ARE DEPICTED LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THOUGH 700MB WINDS ARE SHOWN TO BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY
ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES, MULTIPLE GUIDANCE TOOLS SUGGEST
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, A HIGH WIND WARNING WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
9 AM ON SATURDAY FOR NORTHERN SWEETGRASS AND WHEATLAND COUNTIES.
WIND GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40S MPH (WEAKEST IN THE SOUTHEAST AND IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
TOMORROW. THOUGH THE RECENT PRECIPITATION WILL ALLEVIATE FIRE
CONCERNS FOR SOME AREAS, THERE WILL BE AREAS OF ELEVATED GRASS
FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WE GET WARMER, DRIER, AND
WINDIER. WINDS WITHIN THE HIGH WIND WARNING LOOK TO WEAKEN A BIT
SATURDAY NIGHT, AS INVERSIONS DEVELOP PREVENTING THE STRONGER MID-
LEVEL WINDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH
A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE GAP LOCATIONS TOMORROW AS THE GUSTY WINDS
WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE DAY AND DO NOT HAVE AS STRONG OF MID-
LEVEL WINDS OR AN INVERSION IN PLACE.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN FLATTEN/ SHIFT TO A NW FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
SUNDAY, BUT AS THIS HAPPENS MID- UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY. 700MB WINDS OF 50-80 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL
MONTANA, ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BRING STRONG TO
DANGEROUS WINDS IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY. THE INCREASING GRADIENT AND
INVERSION WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS FOR THE GAPS
AND FOOTHILLS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE LOCATIONS
WILL SEE LOCALLY INFLUENCED GUSTS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE
BECOMING A MORE HYBRID SETUP WITH STRONG WESTERLIES AND MIXING. AS
A RESULT, A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT STARTING AT 11 PM
SATURDAY FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS AND GAP LOCATIONS. A HIGH
WIND WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CRAZIES, WITH GUSTS UP TO 90
MPH POSSIBLE, CREATING POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS BACKCOUNTRY
CONDITIONS. LASTLY, HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN PLACE FOR STILLWATER,
GOLDEN VALLEY, AND MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE FORECAST IN STILLWATER AND
GOLDEN VALLEY.
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, GUSTS IN THE 30S TO LOW 50S MPH ARE
FORECAST ON SUNDAY, GREATEST IN THE CENTRAL-WEST AND WEAKER IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH IN
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY, THIS WILL BE MONITORED. ADDITIONALLY, LOOKED
INTO THE THREAT OF MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY FOR THE RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS. IT IS A TRICKY SETUP WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEING
MORE NORTHWESTERLY, THOUGH MODELS SHOW GUSTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
COMING DOWN INTO THE FOOTHILLS. AM LESS CONFIDENT IN THE THREAT
FOR THE MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF THE LESS FAVORABLE
MOUNTAIN TOP FLOW, AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE A FRESH SNOWPACK. THE
SNOWPACK SHOULD HELP CREATE AN INVERSION SUNDAY, LIMITING THE
EXTENT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD MAKE IT DOWN THE MOUNTAIN.
NEVERTHELESS, THOSE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF TRAVELING OR RECREATING.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN AS A SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT ARE
FORECAST TO COME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING AN END TO THE
WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY, THOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE MORE
SHOWERY AND NOT WIDESPREAD. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH-
CENTRAL ZONES. MODELS THEN WANT TO BRING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
SURFACE FLOW IS SHOW TO BE EAST-NORTHEAST THANKS TO A SURFACE LOW
OVER IDAHO. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FLOW WITH APPRECIABLE FORCING AND
MOISTURE WOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE
AREAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WINTER COULD RETURN TO
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND TUESDAY, AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH POTENTIAL WAVES THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY,
WARMING INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S ON SUNDAY. MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY
HAVE TEMPS FORECAST IN THE 40S AND 50S, WHILE COOLER TEMPS ARE
FORECAST WITH THE PRECIP ON TUESDAY, IN THE 30S AND 40S.
MATOS
AVIATION
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS IN
THE 30S KTS, AND OCCASIONALLY UP TO 45 KTS AFTER 10Z, NEAR KLVM,
K1KM, AND K6S0. BREEZY WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST SATURDAY MORNING,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 35 KTS COMMON NEAR ALL OTHER TAF SITES.
ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/059 042/068 035/048 028/043 024/052 036/061 034/049
00/N 00/N 36/W 73/J 22/W 22/W 44/J
LVM 028/053 041/060 040/051 023/038 020/050 038/058 032/047
01/N 00/N 35/W 54/J 12/J 23/W 44/J
HDN 027/060 037/070 032/049 027/044 023/052 032/061 030/049
01/N 00/N 46/W 85/J 22/W 22/W 54/J
MLS 027/058 041/067 028/042 027/042 022/048 031/056 028/041
00/N 00/N 34/J 43/J 01/B 23/W 33/J
4BQ 026/058 038/068 033/049 028/042 024/049 032/059 030/045
00/U 00/B 23/W 64/J 11/B 12/W 33/J
BHK 023/055 037/063 025/042 023/042 019/045 027/053 024/040
00/N 00/N 23/J 43/J 11/B 22/W 33/J
SHR 019/056 030/066 033/052 022/039 016/048 028/060 027/046
00/U 00/B 14/W 76/J 32/W 22/W 44/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 29-34-42.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 65-66.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 68.
WY...NONE.
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