775
FXUS65 KBYZ 211227
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
627 AM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM.
UPDATE
DUE TO THE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE ISSUED A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY, WYOMING. IF YOU LIVE OR
HAVE TRAVEL PLANS THROUGH SHERIDAN COUNTY, WYOMING TODAY, PLEASE
TAKE CARE TO NOT CAUSE A SPARK, AND AVOID BURNING IF POSSIBLE.
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE "HUMID"
CONDITIONS TODAY, ALLOWING GRASS FIRE CONCERNS TO BE LOWER ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN MONTANA. HOWEVER, AREAS NEAR THE MONTANA-WYOMING
STATE LINE SHOULD STAY AWARE TODAY AS CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY
TREND WORSE (WARMER AND DRIER) THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. ARENDS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS AGREE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL FLATTEN
TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. IN
ADDITION, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST WE WILL PULL IN
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION WITH THE FRONT LATER TODAY. THUS, WE SHOULD BE COOLER
TODAY WITH HUMIDITY NOT QUITE AS LOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 60S
NORTH AND 70S SOUTH, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30S
NORTH TO NEAR 10 PERCENT SOUTH, WARMEST AND DRIEST IN WYOMING.
OVERALL, GRASS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE LESS TODAY COMPARED TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS, BUT THE LATE DAY FRONTAL WINDS (20-35 MPH GUSTS)
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY,
WYOMING SHOULD ALSO BE WATCHED AS WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAY LIFT NORTH INTO THE COUNTY FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INCREASES OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
MIDDAY BEFORE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OVER SOUTH-
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING, SHOWERS MAY ALSO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW DECENT FRONTOGENESIS AND
INSTABILITY WITHIN CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING DECENT MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. QPF HAS JUMPED AROUND EACH SET
OF MODEL RUNS WITH LATEST CYCLE UP TO 0.05-0.10" COMMON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THERE IS, AS USUAL, POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS, ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT PRON AREAS LIKE RED LODGE. SNOW LEVELS STAY RELATIVELY
HIGH WITH ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION (UP TO 1-2") AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE
6000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS.
AFTER A COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S ON SUNDAY, WE
WILL SEE WARMING AND DRYING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE 70S AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY THANKS
TO SOME PRE-FRONTAL WARMING. WITH THIS, WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO
RETURN TO THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COOLER TEMPS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE WE
MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WITH THAT SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW ROBUST THAT SYSTEM MAY BE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE LATTER OF
WHICH SHOULD BE DRY UNDERNEATH A RETURN OF FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. BT/ARENDS
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING BREEZY NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THIS, A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHEAST
A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARRIVE. IN ADDITION, THIS
FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
EVEN LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH- EASTERN MONTANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
BRIEF MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER MODERATE
RAIN SHOWERS (OVERALL MODERATE CHANCE). THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE FOR
A STAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO TODAY, BUT THE CHANCE REMAINS LOW
(LESS THAN 10 PERCENT). WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS, SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CAUSE
PERIODIC MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 037/061 034/067 041/065 044/072 035/054 030/058
4/W 60/U 00/B 01/E 12/W 32/W 10/B
LVM 069 034/059 034/064 041/065 049/066 035/054 028/059
4/W 40/U 00/B 12/W 12/W 21/N 10/B
HDN 073 036/061 031/067 038/067 043/072 034/055 028/059
2/N 60/U 00/B 01/E 12/W 32/W 10/B
MLS 066 034/055 031/062 036/061 041/067 030/047 026/053
1/N 31/U 00/B 00/E 12/W 21/B 10/B
4BQ 075 037/058 034/064 039/065 043/071 035/053 029/055
0/B 41/U 00/B 00/E 01/B 21/B 10/B
BHK 066 030/052 029/060 031/056 036/064 027/046 023/050
1/N 31/B 00/B 00/E 11/B 21/B 10/B
SHR 078 036/057 031/065 036/066 041/072 032/054 026/056
1/N 61/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 32/W 10/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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