154
FXUS65 KBYZ 220029
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
629 PM MDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE AREA TONIGHT.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH THE CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
RETURNS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM.
- NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
UPDATE
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY MOVED ENTIRELY THROUGH THE CWA ALREADY. THE
PRESSURE RISES INDUCED SOME VERY STRONG WINDS, ESPECIALLY AT
SHERIDAN WHICH REPORTED A GUST TO 67 MPH. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT
MID LEVELS AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT (REMAINING MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH) HAVE MUTED THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION. WE HAVE LOWERED
POP'S OVER THE AREA FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LATEST
MESO-ANALYSIS SHOWS DOWNWARD MOTION OVER US BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWER LEVELS WERE PERHAPS JUST TOO DRY AS WELL TO REACH
LEVELS NECESSARY FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. WE MAY STILL SEE POCKETS OF
SOME SHOWERS HERE AND THERE...MAINY OVER AND NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN.
BT
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
AIR MASS IS COOLER AND MORE HUMID TODAY THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS
WE WE BEGIN TO DRAW COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH. IN FACT, AS
PRESSURE FALLS MAXIMIZE TO OUR SOUTH WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN EAST
WINDS MAKE IT TO THE LIVINGSTON AIRPORT. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION
IS SPILLING THRU NORTHERN MT AND WILL MAKE IT THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON (SHOULD SEE NORTH WINDS AT JUDITH GAP VERY SOON). AS
THIS OCCURS, TEMPS WILL DROP AND WINDS WILL TURN GUSTY, AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE. BEFORE THE FROPA THERE IS TIME FOR
MIXED/DRY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SHERIDAN. IT IS IN THESE SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE GRASS
FIRE CONCERNS ARE GREATEST TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FLATTENING IN
RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THRU THE PACNW AND INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. PRECIP (RAIN/SNOW) HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN MT AS OF 18Z. THOUGH HEAVIEST PRECIP OVERALL WILL LIKELY
OCCUR TO OUR NORTH, WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ALONG A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH MODEST INSTABILITY, MOVING NORTH TO
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH BUT LOCALIZED 0.10-0.20" MAY FALL IN
ANY HEAVIER BANDS THAT DEVELOP. SNOW LEVELS ARE HIGH AND LOWER
ELEVATION PTYPE WILL BE RAIN, BUT TOWARD THE TAIL END OF THE
PASSING WAVE IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT A LITTLE NON-ACCUMULATING WET
SNOW FALLS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGHEST HILLS. MOUNTAINS WILL
SEE UP TO 1-2" (TOPS) OF SNOW ABOVE 7KFT. OVERALL NOT A WET SYSTEM
BUT ANY MOISTURE WILL BE BENEFICIAL AFTER THE PAST TWO VERY WARM
AND DRY DAYS. SYSTEM DEPARTS LATE TONIGHT AND IF THERE IS ENOUGH
PRECIP FOLLOWED BY CLEARING BEFORE DAYBREAK, LOCALIZED FOG COULD
BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS FLAT RIDGING RETURNS. SUNDAY WILL BE
COOLER BUT NOT COLD (HIGHS IN 50S TO LOWER 60S), FOLLOWED BY 60S
TO NEAR 70F MONDAY & TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, OF COURSE, BUT A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACKDOOR PUSHES WILL KEEP WINDS IN CHECK. GREATER WIND
POTENTIAL EMERGES BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ENHANCED PRE-
FRONTAL DOWNSLOPING, BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH AT THE USUAL SPOTS. NONETHELESS SOMETHING TO WATCH.
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE AND COLD FRONT BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
AGAIN LOOKS WEAK, BUT A SLIGHTLY BETTER TAP OF COOLER CANADIAN AIR
COULD YIELD AT LEAST A LOW RISK OF LOWER ELEVATION WET SNOW IF THE
WAVE AMPLIFIES. CURRENT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW IS ONLY
10-20%. A FEW GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HINT AT THIS, BUT DON'T
GET YOUR HOPES UP. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY WAVE IN A
VEERED NW FLOW BY FRIDAY AND THIS SHOULD KEEP "COOLER" TEMPS
AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S THURSDAY & FRIDAY, WITH LOWER 60S RETURNING SATURDAY
IN WHAT LOOKS CONFIDENTLY LIKE THE NEXT PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING.
FOR WINTER-LOVERS WISHING FOR MORE SNOW, THE NEXT WEEK DOESN'T
LOOK PROMISING BUT THERE ARE VAGUE SIGNS OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN BY THE END OF THE MONTH AND INTO EARLY APRIL. STAY
TUNED....
NOTE: THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 4-7 HAS LITTLE TO NO HUMAN
INTERVENTION AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION. LET US KNOW IF YOU
HAVE QUESTIONS.
JKL
AVIATION
00Z DISCUSSION...
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME,
HOWEVER, MANY LOCATIONS MAY STRUGGLE TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION AT
THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS, PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHRA WERE INCLUDED
IN THE TAFS FOR KBIL/KSHR/KMLS. AFTER 06Z ALL SITES WILL BE DRY
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. AFTER 15Z WESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK
UP ONCE AGAIN WITH WIDESPREAD 15-20KT GUSTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT; ESPECIALLY FOR KLVM. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE LOCALLY OBSCURED THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/061 034/065 039/068 045/071 036/055 030/056 032/061
30/U 00/B 00/E 11/B 22/W 00/B 00/B
LVM 032/059 032/065 039/067 048/068 037/055 028/057 032/062
30/N 00/B 01/E 11/N 21/N 00/B 00/B
HDN 036/061 030/066 037/068 042/071 035/055 028/057 030/061
30/U 00/B 00/E 11/E 22/W 10/B 00/B
MLS 034/056 030/061 036/062 042/066 031/049 025/051 027/056
41/B 00/B 00/E 11/B 11/B 10/U 00/B
4BQ 035/057 032/065 038/067 044/070 036/053 028/053 030/059
31/U 00/B 00/E 00/B 11/B 10/B 00/B
BHK 030/053 028/061 031/059 038/065 030/048 023/049 025/055
31/B 00/B 00/E 11/B 11/B 10/U 00/B
SHR 035/056 030/064 035/068 041/071 034/052 025/054 027/060
31/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 12/W 10/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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