945
FXUS65 KBYZ 221844
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1244 PM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY.
- WEATHER SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
- WARMER & DRIER NEXT WEEKEND.
- NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
EARLY MORNING SHORTWAVE HAS EXITED AND SKIES ARE CLEARING RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FROM NOW INTO TUESDAY
AS WE SEE A RETURN OF FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE RIDGE WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPS, OF COURSE, BUT A COUPLE OF WEAK BACKDOOR WIND
SHIFTS (ONE TOMORROW AND THE OTHER LATE TUESDAY) WILL KEEP WINDS
IN CHECK, THOUGH IT WILL BE PERIODICALLY BREEZY ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS PER DAYTIME MIXING. AFTER TODAY'S "COOLER" DAY, LOOK FOR
TEMPS BACK TO THE 60S MONDAY, 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY, AND UPPER
60S AND 70S WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY,
THE TIMING OF WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.
THERE IS A PERIOD OF WIND TO KEEP AN EYE ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. IT IS DOUBTFUL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH STABILITY FOR
STRONG PRE-FRONTAL GAP FLOW, BUT DEEP MIXING THEN A FRONTAL PUSH
WITH NEAR 50 KNOTS OF 700MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ON WEDNESDAY. GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ARE LIKELY AT LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON (75% CHANCE)
AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A RISK OF HIGHLIGHT LEVEL GUSTS (30%
CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 58+ MPH). LOOK FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH TO
PUSH EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING AT BILLINGS.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN QUITE MODEST THROUGH THE MID TO LAKE
WEEK PERIOD. LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
BRIEFLY OVER OUR NORTH LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A WEAK PACIFIC
WAVE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A SECONDARY WAVE ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN TROF WHICH COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THURSDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE EARLY FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW RISK OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THIS
TIME, BUT THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
IS ONLY 10-20%. THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE COOLER. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY THEN MAINLY 50S FRIDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A RIDGE TO REBUILD FOR NEXT WEEKEND,
BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER...AGAIN. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB TO THE
60S SATURDAY AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F SUNDAY, AS THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM
WINTER AND EARLY SPRING CONTINUES.
IF THERE IS ANY HOPE FOR A COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY APRIL. IN THE MEANTIME, THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WARM/DRY ZONAL FLOW WITH
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, KEEPING THE COLD AIR
WELL TO OUR NORTH IN AK AND NW CANADA. WHILE WE HAVE SEEN RECORD
HEAT ALL OVER THE WESTERN U.S., AK HAS IN SOME PLACES EXPERIENCED
RECORD COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
NOTE: THE FORECAST FOR DAYS 4-7 HAS LITTLE TO NO HUMAN
INTERVENTION AND SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION. LET US KNOW IF YOU
HAVE QUESTIONS.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT BREEZY
WEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS WINDS DECREASE LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK OVER
THE REGION. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/064 041/068 046/077 037/050 027/055 031/064 038/069
00/B 00/E 11/N 43/W 10/U 00/B 00/B
LVM 034/065 042/067 051/070 034/050 024/055 030/063 038/067
00/B 01/E 31/N 32/J 10/U 00/B 00/B
HDN 031/065 039/068 043/078 035/050 026/056 026/065 034/070
00/B 00/E 11/B 33/W 10/U 00/B 00/B
MLS 031/061 036/064 042/070 030/044 024/052 026/060 034/065
00/B 00/E 22/W 22/W 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 032/064 037/067 044/076 036/047 027/052 028/062 036/068
00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W 10/U 00/B 00/B
BHK 029/060 031/061 038/067 028/041 020/050 025/059 032/062
00/B 00/E 21/B 31/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 031/064 036/068 041/077 033/047 022/052 025/062 033/068
00/B 00/B 01/B 23/W 10/U 00/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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