779
FXUS65 KBYZ 231102
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
502 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WIND ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY.
- WEATHER SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
- WARM & DRY AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
- NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN NOTED IN THE MODELS OR ENSEMBLES.
WE EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A
WARMING TREND INTO MIDWEEK AS UPPER RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE
REGION.
TEMPS...LOOK FOR TEMPS BACK TO THE 60S MONDAY, 60S TO LOWER 70S
TUESDAY, AND UPPER 60S AND 70S WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY, THE TIMING OF WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPS ONE
WAY OR THE OTHER. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THURSDAY
THEN MAINLY 50S FRIDAY BEHIND A MID WEEK COLD FRONT.
WINDS...WHILE PERIODS OF WINDY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FOOTHILLS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO MIXING, SOME PUSHES OF COOLER AIR
WILL FOIL THE DEVELOPMENT OF LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING, THUS
KEEPING PRESSURE GRADIENTS/WIND OVER THE FOOTHILLS IN CHECK.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND IMPACTS APPEARS TO BE IN A PREFRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE PATTERN
AND STABILITY PROFILES DO NOT FAVOR GAP FLOW, DEEP MIXING WITH
NEAR 50 KNOTS AT 700MB MAY TRANSLATE TO FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS
AND NEAR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MT FOOTHILLS. GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY AT LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON (75% CHANCE) AND
WILL REQUIRE MONITORING FOR A RISK OF HIGHLIGHT LEVEL GUSTS (30%
CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 58+ MPH). LOOK FOR GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH TO
PUSH EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS INCLUDING AT BILLINGS.
PRECIPITATION...ANOTHER WAVE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE AT MIDWEEK. PRIOR TO
THIS, ISOLATED WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, IT
LOOKS LIKE A BRISK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA (SIMILAR TO
LAST SATURDAYS) AROUND WEDNESDAY EVENING. NOT MUCH PRECIP IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE DOOR IS OPENED FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO SOME TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY. ENSEMBLES
SHOW A LOW RISK OF MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING THIS TIME. THE
PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IS 10% OR LESS
OVER MOST AREAS, BUT UP TO 30% FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
FURTHER OUT...CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR UPPER RIDGING TO RETURN IN FORCE NEXT WEEKEND,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER. TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB
TO THE 60S SATURDAY AND PERHAPS NEAR 70F SUNDAY, AS THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM WINTER/EARLY SPRING CONTINUES. BT
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 041/072 047/080 036/050 027/056 029/065 039/073
0/B 00/E 11/N 44/W 10/U 00/B 00/B
LVM 064 042/070 051/072 036/050 024/054 031/065 040/071
0/B 01/N 31/N 44/W 00/U 00/B 00/B
HDN 064 038/072 045/081 036/050 025/055 026/066 035/074
0/B 00/E 12/W 45/W 10/U 00/B 00/B
MLS 060 036/067 043/072 031/043 022/051 024/061 034/069
0/B 00/E 11/E 33/W 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 062 039/069 046/077 036/047 026/052 026/063 037/072
0/B 00/B 00/B 23/W 10/U 00/B 00/B
BHK 059 030/065 040/070 028/040 020/047 024/059 033/066
0/B 00/E 11/B 43/J 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 063 035/070 042/080 033/046 024/052 026/064 035/072
0/B 00/B 00/B 24/W 20/U 00/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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