146
FXUS65 KBYZ 241047
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
447 AM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL GRASS FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WIND ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARM & DRY AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGING TO PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK RESULTING IN WARM TEMPS,
AND ASIDE FROM A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TODAY (10-20F ABOVE
NORMAL) AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S (20-30F
ABOVE NORMAL) THANKS TO A PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH DEEP MIXING
AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP IN THE FOOTHILLS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LEES SIDE SURFACE
TROUGHING AND A WEAK INVERSION. PROGGED PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS IS MODEST (6-8 MB FROM IDA-LWT), SO GUSTS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD ONLY BE IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER, WITH DEEP MIXING
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD SEE GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A 70-90% CHANCE OF GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH
FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR TO
JUDITH GAP. GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD EAST TO OTHER AREAS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH COMMON.
THE VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT
AND NORTHERN WY. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO
9 PM WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
PLEASE REFRAIN FROM ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK GRASS FIRES!
ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION
IN THE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. LATEST MODELS WANT TO HANG UP
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THURSDAY AS WELL
AS NEARBY AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PLAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK VERY
PROMISING. THE CHANCE OF EVEN 0.05 OF PRECIP RANGES FROM 25% EAST
TO 40% WEST. IN THE MOUNTAINS, LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST ABOVE 6000 FT. THE PROBABILITY FOR
AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOWFALL AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (MAINLY WED
NIGHT) RANGES FROM 15% EAST TO 50% WEST OF BILLINGS NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS. ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET OR AT THE MOST SLUSHY IN THE
FOOTHILLS THURSDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT
UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN, BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY, AND 60S/70S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MID 70S FOR MONDAY. BT
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM) THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS OVER 30KTS DEVELOPING BEFORE SUNSET THERE. ELSEWHERE THERMAL
WIND GUSTS AND MODEST MIXING WILL BRING GUSTS IN THE 20-25KT
VICINITY DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND GUSTS WILL FALL OFF
AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 049/081 038/051 027/059 031/067 040/074 043/075
1/B 11/N 54/J 10/U 00/U 00/B 11/B
LVM 068 050/073 035/050 025/056 032/066 040/073 043/071
1/N 21/N 54/J 10/U 00/B 00/B 11/B
HDN 071 047/081 036/051 026/058 028/068 036/076 040/077
1/B 11/N 55/W 20/U 00/U 00/B 11/B
MLS 066 046/073 034/045 023/053 028/063 036/072 042/073
1/B 11/B 33/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B
4BQ 067 048/078 037/048 026/054 031/065 038/074 044/075
0/B 00/B 23/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
BHK 063 042/072 031/041 019/049 026/060 034/067 039/069
1/E 01/B 42/J 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B
SHR 068 042/080 033/046 023/053 027/067 036/075 040/075
0/B 00/N 25/W 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>129.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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