472
FXUS65 KBYZ 242358
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
558 PM MDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL GRASS FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY, DUE TO
VERY WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- GUSTY WINDS (40 TO 60 MPH) ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
WEDNESDAY, BREEZY ACROSS THE PLAINS (25 TO 40 MPH).
- COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARM & DRY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND, WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BRING VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW
70SF. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80SF. THREE OF THE FIVE CLIMATE SITES
(BILLINGS, LIVINGSTON, AND SHERIDAN) HAVE A FORECAST HIGH THAT IS
NEAR OR HIGHER THAN THE SINGLE DAY RECORD FOR WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER
IDAHO. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE
WESTERN GAP LOCATIONS IN ADDITION TO NOCTURNAL INVERSIONS. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30S TO LOW
40S MPH. DEEP MIXING AND STRONGER MID-LEVEL WINDS MOVE INTO THE
REGION TOMORROW, BRINGING GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL MT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY THE US-191 CORRIDOR, WHERE GUSTS OF 40 TO 60
MPH ARE FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NORTH THROUGH HARLOWTON IS 60 TO 90
PERCENT. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 60 MPH OR GREATER FOR THE SAME
AREAS IS 30 TO 50 PERCENT, GREATEST NEAR MELVILLE. OVER THE
PLAINS, GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST (GREATEST AROUND AND
WEST OF BILLINGS. IN THE EAST, WINDS LOOK TO BE LOWER WITH GUSTS
IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S MPH. ONE AREA TO KEEP AN EYE ON WILL BE
SHERIDAN, AS DEEP PREFRONTAL MIXING HAS A TENDENCY TO PRODUCE
HIGHER GUSTS. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH IN SHERIDAN
IS 30 TO 50 PERCENT.
RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LOCATIONS WEST AND SOUTH
OF ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION
OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY AND
EAST MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS LOW AS THE
WEST NOR WILL WINDS BE AS HIGH. AS A RESULT, A RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK
GRASS FIRES!
AN UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THE RIDGING WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A COLD FRONT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS
HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AND AN
END TO THE GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE
BRINGING A REINFORCED CHANCE ON THURSDAY. THE MOUNTAINS LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL OF 1 TO
3 INCHES FORECAST ABOVE 6000 FEET. ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, A RAIN TO
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FORECAST, WITH LIGHT SNOWFALL OF A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE PLAINS, PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY FALL AS
RAIN, THOUGH THE HIGHER HILLS COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL IS 10 TO 40%). TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS HAVE INCREASED WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST, THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.1" INCHES OF LIQUID
PRECIP IS NOW 25 TO 50% (GREATEST WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY). ROADS
SHOULD REMAIN WET OR AT THE MOST SLUSHY IN THE FOOTHILLS THURSDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS THURSDAY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50
DEGREES.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN AGREEMENT THAT
UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN, BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY, AND 60S/70S
FOR THE WEEKEND AND MID 70S FOR MONDAY.
MATOS
AVIATION
00Z UPDATE...
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AT KLVM BEFORE WINDS INCREASE LATE MORNING TO AROUND 35-45 KTS.
THERE IS ABOUT A 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 50 KTS LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KLVM, K6S0 AND K3HT. WIDESPREAD BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN LATE MORNING BEFORE A FRONT PASSES THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT IN THE EVENING. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 037/052 026/059 033/069 041/076 042/073 040/061
12/N 54/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 051/073 034/049 024/058 033/068 041/072 044/070 039/057
21/N 43/J 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W 23/W
HDN 046/081 036/052 025/059 028/070 035/077 040/075 038/064
12/B 45/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 22/W
MLS 046/072 034/047 023/053 028/065 037/071 041/069 036/060
21/B 22/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
4BQ 047/077 036/049 026/056 031/067 040/075 042/075 040/063
01/U 23/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B
BHK 042/071 030/043 019/050 025/062 035/067 037/065 035/059
12/B 32/J 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B
SHR 042/080 032/045 022/057 028/069 038/075 041/074 037/063
01/U 25/W 10/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONES 123>129.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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