652
FXUS65 KBYZ 251103
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
503 AM MDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL GRASS FIRE DANGER TODAY, DUE TO VERY WARM,
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- GUSTY WINDS (40 TO 60 MPH) ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY,
BREEZY ACROSS THE PLAINS (25 TO 40 MPH).
- COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- WARM & DRY AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT HAS BROUGHT LIGHT
SHOWERS OR VIRGA TO NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY
INCREASING ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN
AND WINDS INCREASE IN THE MID LEVELS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30-50
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LIVINGSTON TO NYE INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
VERY WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
TODAY AHEAD OF A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AIDING IN DEEP MIXING, AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
ALLOW STRONG WINDS TO SPREAD OUT THROUGH THE US-191 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS MAKING IT INTO CENTRAL
AREAS BY MID DAY. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH (PROBABILITY
OF 60 MPH WINDS IS 30-50%, GREATEST IN THE CRAZY MTN FOOTHILLS NEAR
MELVILLE) CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. OVER THE
PLAINS, GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST (GREATEST AROUND AND WEST
OF BILLINGS. IN THE EAST, WINDS LOOK TO BE LOWER WITH GUSTS IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 70S TO LOWER
80S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON, BILLINGS
AND SHERIDAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST STARTING IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH,
SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BRINGING AN END TO THE
STRONGEST WINDS. WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 MPH LOOK TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT FOR A PERIOD FOR MOST AREAS, BEFORE WINDS DECREASE INTO THIS
EVENING/NIGHT. ONE AREA TO WATCH IS SHERIDAN, WHERE STRONGER WINDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.
RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR LOCATIONS WEST AND SOUTH OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WHERE
GRASSES ARE DEAD OR DRY. FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS LOW AS THE WEST NOR WILL
WINDS BE AS HIGH. AS A RESULT, A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. PLEASE REFRAIN
FROM ANY ACTIVITIES THAT MAY SPARK GRASS FIRES!
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT TONIGHT, WITH
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN. A PACIFIC WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST BRINGS A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE AND FORCING INTO
THURSDAY. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (30-75%) ARE
FORECAST, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW
ABOVE 6000 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE NOT A BIG PRECIPITATION
EVENT, THE PROBABILITY OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF LIQUID
PRECIPITATION IS ROUGHLY 30-70% WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY, WITH LOWER
CHANCES OVER THE EAST. THE PROBABILITY OF 0.25 INCHES OR MORE DROPS
TO 15-40%, GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. SNOWFALL OF A
FEW INCHES IS FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER HILLS AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS. ROADS SHOULD REMAIN WET OR AT THE MOST SLUSHY IN THE
FOOTHILLS THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE 50S ON FRIDAY, TO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S
SATURDAY, AND 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WINDS LOOK LIGHT OVERALL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INCREASED
WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS UPPER
TROUGHING BEGINS MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
COULD EVOLVE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. STP
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM) WITH GUSTS TO
45KTS AT TIMES. AFTER MIX OUT TIME (16-18Z) EXPECT GUSTY
(25-40KTS) WESTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF AN EARLY EVENING COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECT
GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS AND INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE QUICKLY AFTER 06Z AS STRATUS AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN PLACE NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TO COVER THIS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 080 037/050 027/057 034/071 041/076 042/073 040/061
1/N 64/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W 22/W
LVM 073 034/048 024/057 034/069 041/072 044/070 039/057
1/N 63/J 00/U 00/B 00/B 12/W 23/W
HDN 081 036/050 024/059 029/074 035/077 040/075 038/064
1/N 55/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 22/W
MLS 072 035/046 022/053 029/066 037/071 041/069 036/061
2/W 22/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
4BQ 077 036/049 024/055 033/070 040/075 042/075 040/063
1/B 23/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 071 032/042 018/049 026/061 035/067 037/065 035/059
1/B 32/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/E
SHR 080 032/044 022/055 029/071 038/075 041/074 037/063
1/N 37/W 10/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 123>129.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page