637
FXUS65 KBYZ 280901
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
301 AM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- CONDITIONS TREND COOLER AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK, STARTING WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT OF WEATHER IS ONGOING, BUT WITH TEMPS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA RUNNING 10-20F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THRU WHAT IS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. 2AM DEWPTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AT HIGHER ELEVATION
STATIONS AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MESOANALYSIS SHOWING PWATS OF
LESS THAN 0.20"...OR ABOUT A STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL.
TODAY'S WARMER TEMPS (60S TO LOWER 70S) AND DEEPER MIXING THRU A
RATHER DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD VERY LOW AFTERNOON RHS,
PERHAPS NEAR 10% IN PARTS OF THE WEST HALF OF OUR CWA. WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL BE ONLY MODESTLY BREEZY (GUSTS 20-30
MPH) AND WE WILL SEE A BACKDOOR WIND SHIFT TO N-NE WINDS NORTHEAST
OF THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FORECAST HAS
ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL BUT GIVEN CURRENT OBS HAVE DROPPED
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES A BIT. SUNDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AND NOT
QUITE SO DRY. COLD FRONT IS SET TO ARRIVE MONDAY, AND THOUGH THE
EC REMAINS EARLIER W/ THE FROPA THAN THE GFS, ALL MODELS SHOW A
DAYTIME FROPA. BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER FOR
MONDAY'S FORECAST HIGHS AND HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO THE TEMP FORECAST
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING A HEALTHY
FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF PCPN MOVING N-S BEHIND THE FROPA. IN FACT,
AT BILLINGS, THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE FINISHED BY
SUNSET. EXPECT A RAIN TO WET SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
A LOW LEVEL JET OVER EASTERN MONTANA WILL KEEP BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH OVERALL LIGHT WINDS, AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT INTO THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S TODAY.
A MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND BRING IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO MOST AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES SUNDAY, WARMEST OVER THE SOUTH. AS A WAVE MOVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NW, INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE
AREA, AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT (PROBABILITY OF 50
MPH WINDS IS 15-40%). BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY
MORNING ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH RANGES FROM 30-60% ALONG THE
WEST, TO 20-40% ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. A QUICK SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
MIX (40-90%)OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH TO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH, WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, SHOWERS
LOOK TO DECREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH SNOW LINGERING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS A BIT LONGER. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A FEW TENTHS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS
(MODERATE CHANCES FOR 0.25 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL AND WEST),
DROPPING TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE EAST. CURRENTLY THERE IS A
MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BEFORE ENSEMBLES INDICATE LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS
WITH THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN LOWER HEIGHTS. WHILE THE DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND RAIN/SNOW OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST. STP
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS GUSTING
INTO THE 20S KTS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 03Z TODAY. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 039/069 041/054 024/046 027/063 040/061 032/049
0/B 00/B 18/W 51/B 11/B 25/W 54/O
LVM 069 039/067 042/052 021/047 027/061 038/053 029/046
0/B 00/N 28/W 41/B 12/W 46/W 54/S
HDN 073 035/072 037/057 022/047 026/065 038/064 031/049
0/B 00/B 18/W 61/B 11/B 25/W 65/O
MLS 067 037/064 038/054 021/042 025/061 040/063 031/044
0/B 00/U 25/W 21/U 00/B 13/W 44/O
4BQ 070 038/067 041/063 024/042 027/063 041/066 032/046
0/B 00/U 02/W 31/B 00/B 13/W 54/O
BHK 065 035/064 036/056 019/039 020/055 035/062 029/046
0/B 00/U 12/W 21/U 00/N 13/W 43/O
SHR 071 035/070 039/064 021/044 023/062 035/061 028/046
0/U 00/U 15/W 72/J 11/B 25/W 66/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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