361
FXUS65 KBYZ 281844
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1244 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
- COLD FRONT MONDAY BRINGS COOLER TEMPS AND RAIN/SNOW.
- ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
WIDESPREAD MIN RH VALUES UNDER 20 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED BOTH TODAY
AND SUNDAY. THE SAVING FACTOR IN TERMS OF FIRE CONCERNS IS THAT
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FORECAST TIME OF THE FROPA ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
A DIFFERENCE OF THREE HOURS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE TRENDS
ARE PRETTY CLEAR THOUGH, THAT THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
BILLINGS AT THE LATEST MIDDAY MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO SQUASH
NEARLY ALL FIRE CONCERNS MONDAY, WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF
SHERIDAN CO. AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE THE COLD FRONT MAY
TAKE INTO THE AFTERNOON BRING IN THE MOISTURE AND CAA. ASSOCIATED
WITH, AND BEHIND, THIS COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE RAIN SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. THE TIMEFRAME OF THE PRECIP HAS ALSO
TRENDED UP TO WHERE THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA MAY SEE THE ONSET
ON RAIN BEFORE NOON MONDAY. DUE TO THIS THERE IS NOW ALSO A MORE
LIMITED TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EVEN
THROUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE DROPPING QUICKLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE END TIME FOR THE PRECIPITATION IS ALSO EARLIER NOW. THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE ON EAST/NORTHEAST FACING ASPECTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY.
AFTER BRIEF RIDGING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, A POTENT
LONGWAVE TOUGH DIGS ITS WAY FROM COASTAL BC INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, HOWEVER, EXACT AMOUNTS AND THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN IMPORTANT UNANSWERED QUESTIONS AT THIS TIME.
IT APPEARS THAT THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SLIGHTLY TRENDING TOWARDS
LAST NIGHT'S CANADIAN SOLUTION WHERE IT TAKES THE ENERGY AND DIGS
IT INTO THE CO/WY ROCKIES BECOMING A CUTOFF LOW. THIS WOULD BE A
VERY GOOD SETUP TO BRING IMPACTFUL SNOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA;
ESPECIALLY NE MOUNTAIN ASPECTS. THE OTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT THIS
FEATURE REMAINS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ATTACHED TO THE PARENT JET AS
IT MOVES EASTWARDS. THIS WOULD STILL GIVE THE ENTIRE CWA A GOOD
DRINK OF WATER, HOWEVER, TOTALS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS; AND
MUCH MORE OF THE AREA WOULD SEE RAIN INSTEAD OF SNOW.
THE OVERALL PATTERN STARTING THIS WEEK DOES LOOK MUCH MORE
SPIRING-LIKE. THIS COULD GIVE US REPEATED CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND ACTIVE WEATHER WELL INTO APRIL WHICH MAY ALLOW
SOME LOCATIONS TO GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION.
WMR
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH 02Z EVENING. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/072 042/056 025/047 027/063 040/061 032/049 030/052
00/B 28/W 52/J 11/B 35/W 54/W 22/W
LVM 038/070 042/055 021/048 027/061 038/053 029/046 028/051
01/N 38/W 42/J 12/W 56/W 54/J 21/N
HDN 035/073 039/059 023/049 026/065 038/064 031/049 027/053
01/U 27/W 62/J 11/B 25/W 65/W 32/W
MLS 037/066 037/055 022/042 025/061 040/063 031/044 026/047
00/U 25/W 31/U 00/B 13/W 44/W 22/J
4BQ 039/069 041/064 024/044 027/063 041/066 032/046 027/047
00/U 02/W 41/U 00/U 13/W 54/W 32/J
BHK 035/065 035/059 019/040 020/055 035/062 029/046 023/044
00/U 13/W 31/U 01/N 23/W 43/W 32/J
SHR 035/072 040/068 022/045 023/063 035/061 028/046 024/050
00/U 04/W 73/J 11/B 25/W 66/J 33/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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