211
FXUS65 KBYZ 290611
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1211 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY INTO
MONDAY.
- COLD FRONT MONDAY BRINGS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN/SNOW.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP MIDWEEK, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN/SNOW LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S INTO THIS MORNING,
WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERALL, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SPREADING OVER EASTERN AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE REGION. TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
COOLER IN SOME LOCATIONS COMPARED TO SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS BEGIN SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S AND 30S MPH COMMON AS MID LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE. LIVINGSTON COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
FOOTHILLS. A JET MAX NOSING IN THIS EVENING MAY BRING LOW CHANCES
(LESS THAN 25%) FOR SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW
APPROACHES THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON MONDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS (25 TO 45 MPH) AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION (40-90% CHANCE) WILL
OCCUR WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE FORM OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
RAIN CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX AND WET SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTH
TO THE 60S OVER THE SOUTH, WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ELEVATED GRASS FIRE
CONCERNS OVER SHERIDAN COUNTY ON MONDAY, DEPENDING ON THE FRONTAL
TIMING AS SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING, WHILE OTHERS BRING IT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR
A BIT WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION DECREASES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW
LINGERING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S WILL BE COMMON MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS OVER THE EAST, TO A TENTH OR
TWO, TO AS MUCH AS A HALF INCH FOR SOME AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WEST. PROBABILITIES FOR 0.25 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION OR
MORE ARE ROUGHLY 30-80% OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES, GREATEST
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE FOR 4 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERLY UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS WELL WITH, A LOW TO
MODERATE CHANCE AT AN INCH OF SNOW, AND MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES
INTO THE FOOTHILLS WHERE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PROGGED TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WILL KEEP LIGHT SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S ON TUESDAY, WARMING INTO THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S WEDNESDAY. HEADING INTO THURSDAY, LARGE SCALE TROUGHING
BEGINS MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLES INDICATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW SCENARIO OR A SPLITTING TROUGH
SCENARIO. WHILE EACH COULD BRING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW AND
RAIN/SNOW OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, THE CLOSED LOW SCENARIO,
PARTICULARLY IF THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS WY, WOULD BRING A BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, BUT
THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK BEARS WATCHING. STP
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE. THESE
WINDS WILL BEGIN AROUND 15Z FOR KLVM AND AROUND 18Z FOR K6SO AND
K3HT. WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 041/056 025/046 028/060 040/061 032/049 030/052
1/U 27/O 61/B 11/B 35/W 54/W 22/W
LVM 068 044/051 022/044 028/059 038/053 029/046 028/051
1/N 28/O 51/B 13/R 56/W 54/J 21/N
HDN 074 038/058 024/048 027/063 038/064 031/049 027/053
1/U 26/O 72/S 11/B 25/W 65/W 32/W
MLS 066 037/055 022/042 028/059 040/063 031/044 026/047
0/U 14/R 41/U 10/B 13/W 44/W 22/J
4BQ 069 041/063 024/043 029/058 041/066 032/046 027/047
0/U 01/N 51/U 11/B 13/W 54/W 32/J
BHK 066 034/058 019/039 022/051 035/062 029/046 023/044
0/U 12/R 41/U 10/N 23/W 43/W 32/J
SHR 072 038/065 022/043 025/059 035/061 028/046 024/050
0/U 03/R 83/S 11/B 25/W 66/J 33/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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