095
FXUS65 KBYZ 291900
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
100 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY INTO
MONDAY.
- COLD FRONT MONDAY BRINGS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN/SNOW.
- BRIEF WARMUP MIDWEEK.
- POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION EVENT LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
OUT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE PROVIDING THE WET AND WINDY WEATHER
TUESDAY, A SMALL PIECE OF ENERGY WILL ZIP THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GIVE PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MONTANA A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LOOKING TO THAT TUESDAY SHORTWAVE, THE FORWARD PROGRESSION HAS
SIGNIFICANTLY LAGGED IN THE MODEL RUNS SINCE YESTERDAY. WHAT ONCE
LOOKED LIKE A MIDDAY FROPA FOR BILLINGS IS NOW FORECAST TO OCCUR
AROUND 00Z. JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST COULD MIX DOWN CREATING A BREEZY AFTERNOON FOR PLACES SUCH AS
LIVINGSTON AND BIG TIMBER. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NNW WITH A PERIOD OF HIGHER WIND GUSTS. AS THESE WINDS GAP
THROUGH THE LITTLE BELT AND SNOWY MOUNTAINS, THEY MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50MPH IN WHEATLAND CO.
WITH THE FROPA NOW OCCURRING LATER IN THE DAY, THERE IS AN
ELEVATED CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE
ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER (BELFRY, BH CANYON, ALZADA, ECT.) AND
SHERIDAN, WY. BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS GUSTING 20S TO 30S MPH ARE
EXPECTED REGION WIDE, WITH MAYBE THE EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS
DIRECTLY ADJACENT TO THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S F WHICH IS
15 TO 20 F ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN THE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE SUB 20
PERCENT ALONG THE WY/MT BORDER AND POTENTIALLY APPROACH 10
PERCENT AROUND THE CITY OF SHERIDAN. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BEHIND
THE FRONT, TEMPS WILL FALL QUICKLY AND RH VALUES WILL HAVE A GOOD
RECOVERY OVERNIGHT.
MODELED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS. WHILE MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY FAVORING THE HIGHER TOTALS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THEY MAY
BE A LITTLE OVERDONE. THIS SHORTWAVE DOES NOT HAVE ANY GOOD
MOISTURE TAP WHICH WILL NOT ALLOW FOR PWATS TO GET TOO HIGH.
ADDITIONALLY, WHEN LOOKING AT THE PAST TWO "PRECIPITATION" EVENTS
ACROSS THE CWA, THEY HAD SIMILAR SETUPS TO THIS SYSTEM AND MOST
LOCATIONS DID NOT EVEN PICK UP 0.1". THE PRECIPITATION THE MODELS
SHOW BEHIND THE FROPA IS MORE BELIEVABLE THAN THE STUFF THAT SOME
OF THE CAMS DEPICT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ADVECTING INTO A REGION WITH VERY DRY MID AND LOW LEVELS AND THUS
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY NEED A DECENT AMOUNT OF TIME TO
APPROACH SATURATION BEFORE ANYTHING CAN REACH THE GROUND. TOWARDS
THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIPITATION EVENT (TUESDAY AM) TEMPS MAY
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A WIDESPREAD TRACE OF
SNOW TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF MILES CITY. AS THE SYNOPTIC PRECIP
PUSHES OUT LATE TUESDAY MORNING, A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW
IS POSSIBLE ON NE FACING ASPECTS (RED LODGE, STORY). SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT (~10KTS) OUT OF THE NE WITH A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE BROAD SCALE DECENT
BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WHICH COULD EITHER LIMIT THE EVENT TO THE
FOOTHILLS, OR HINDER IT COMPLETELY AS TO WHERE NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
OCCURS.
LATER IN THE WEEK WE ARE STILL WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
IMPACTFUL SPRING STORM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DISCREPANCIES
BETWEEN HOW DEEP THE THROUGH WILL DIG OR IF THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SPLIT FLOW / CUTOFF LOW SITUATION. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT IF THE
DEEPER TROUGH DOES PAN OUT, THIS COULD BE A VERY BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANTLY
BOOSTING OUR LATE SEASON SNOWPACK. IF THE MORE POLEWARD SOLUTION
OCCURS, PRECIPITATION CAN STILL BE EXPECTED, HOWEVER IT WILL
LIKELY BE FAR LESS. AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION, MODELS SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WILL HAPPEN LATE WEEK. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN A DAY OR SO TO SEE
IF THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST MODELS FOR THIS POTENTIALLY
IMPACTFUL STORM. WMR
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ALONG
THE SOUTH CENTRAL MT FOOTHILLS (KLVM,K6S0) WILL GUST 25-35 KNOTS
AT TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VIRGA
IS POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTHWEST OF KBIL LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z
THIS EVENING. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/060 027/046 030/059 040/063 032/043 026/049 030/058
27/W 72/J 21/B 36/W 76/J 32/J 11/B
LVM 045/062 025/045 030/058 038/054 028/041 025/049 031/056
18/W 62/J 33/W 68/W 75/J 21/B 01/B
HDN 038/063 026/048 029/062 037/066 032/042 023/046 025/056
26/W 82/J 21/B 36/W 87/J 42/W 11/B
MLS 036/060 023/043 030/055 034/061 032/040 024/042 022/051
23/W 40/U 00/B 14/W 66/W 32/J 11/B
4BQ 040/065 026/044 030/054 034/065 032/044 024/042 025/053
01/N 61/B 11/B 14/W 76/W 43/J 11/B
BHK 033/061 020/041 023/047 027/052 027/041 022/040 021/049
22/W 40/B 11/N 13/W 66/J 32/J 11/B
SHR 040/072 024/045 027/057 032/064 028/041 022/044 023/054
03/W 95/J 22/W 26/W 87/J 43/W 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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