136
FXUS65 KBYZ 180635
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1235 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY SE MONTANA TODAY.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 80S LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
AS YESTERDAY'S VORT MAX EXISTS TO OUR EAST A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. EVEN THROUGH THE MAIN
ENERGY HAS EXISTED INTO THE GREAT PLAINS, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS DOMINANT CENTERED OVER MB/WESTERN ONTARIO. AS THIS FEATURE
LAGS IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION, ONE MORE LOCALIZED VORT MAX MAY
PIVOT AROUND THROUGH FAR NE MT AND WESTERN ND. THIS COULD GIVE
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS NEAR BAKER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING VERY LIGHT. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS
WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEAK
FEATURE, 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 30KTS, AND 700MB
WINDS IN THE LOW 40S KT, OVER EASTERN MT. WITH A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY TODAY, BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA CAN BE EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
UNDER 40 MPH.
AS THIS DOMINAT RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND ITS INFLUENCE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RISE EACH DAY. WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS FORECAST TODAY, THE
FORECAST HIGHS GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE
IS A 90% CHANCE THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80 F FOR BILLINGS,
MILES CITY, AND SHERIDAN ON TUESDAY. ALONG WITH THESE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, ALSO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS WITH WIDESPREAD MIN RH
VALUES BELOW 20% FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS SLOWLY GROWING
CONFIDENCE IN AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM FOR WESTERN N. AMERICA.
ALL CLUSTERS ARE NOW AGREEING ON SOME SORT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS COULD BE A GOOD
PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THERE IS ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE
THAT BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN COULD SEE 0.5" OF QPF WITH THIS EVENT.
AS WITH ALL LONG RANGE FORECASTS, DETAILS WILL CHANGE AND BECOME
MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. WMR
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS PRODUCING SNOW, GRAUPEL, AND RAIN WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE MONTANA/WYOMING LINE THROUGH 08Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.
LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 30-35KTS. VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WITH SOME
CLEARING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST BY MIDDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE
BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN AFTER 16Z WITH W/NW GUSTS 25-30
KTS. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 032/072 043/080 046/088 053/077 041/051 029/050
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 13/W 78/W 43/W
LVM 057 029/067 038/077 043/081 047/068 035/048 026/049
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 15/W 78/W 42/J
HDN 061 027/070 035/082 042/089 049/081 039/053 028/052
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 13/W 78/W 53/W
MLS 056 028/067 037/079 044/086 052/082 040/052 028/048
2/J 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 57/W 42/W
4BQ 054 027/068 038/079 044/085 052/082 041/053 029/047
1/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 57/W 52/J
BHK 050 025/061 036/076 041/083 048/081 041/052 027/047
2/J 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 47/W 42/J
SHR 053 025/066 033/076 040/083 047/076 036/050 024/048
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 12/W 68/W 53/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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