717
FXUS65 KBYZ 200045
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
645 PM MDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME RISES ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS DUE TO MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT. USE CAUTION WITH BURNING.
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM STRONG WINDS, PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND
SNOW), AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
UPDATE
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BROUGHT WARMING TEMPS TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S MOST PLACES. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS EAST, MONDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
70S AND SOME LOCATIONS TOUCHING 80F. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN AB. THIS FEATURE WILL INDUCE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS TONIGHT (THUS A LITTLE
DOWNSLOPE WIND FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND AN OVERALL WARMER
NIGHT) THEN A BACKDOORING WIND SHIFT TOMORROW AFTERNOON & EVENING.
THE BACKDOOR INFLUENCE WILL NOT BE EARLY ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO
PROVIDE COOLING IN OUR EAST. WARMING TREND CONTINUES TUESDAY,
WHICH STANDS A GOOD CHANCE AT BEING THE WARMEST DAY SO FAR IN
2026.
FORECAST HAS ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT NUDGES INTO THE AREA. DURING THIS
TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (F) TODAY, 70S TO LOWER 80S (F) MONDAY, AND UPPER
70S TO UPPER 80S (F) TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GETS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY AS IT IS A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD OF OUR
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM, BUT HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND 70S (F)
ARE FORECAST WEST OF BILLINGS WITH 70S AND 80S (F) AROUND AND EAST
OF BILLINGS. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THERE IS EVEN A CHANCE OF
SEEING 90 (F) OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA (10 TO 35 PERCENT
CHANCE, GREATEST NEAR AND ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY).
WHILE THIS HEAT WILL BE A DRY HEAT (LOW HUMIDITIES), THERE ARE A
FEW POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE FIRST IS MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES UP TO ABOUT 9,000 FEET ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING. THIS, COMBINED WITH THE
WARM DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WILL ALLOW MORE EFFICIENT SNOWMELT TO
OCCUR. WHILE NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED, SOME RISES ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS ARE FORECAST. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING STREAMFLOWS
AND STAGES, VISIT WATER.NOAA.GOV. THE OTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT IS
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (MAINLY FOR WILDLAND GRASSES) DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. LUCKILY, WINDS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL DAYTIME GUSTS
IN THE TEENS TO 20S MPH. HOWEVER, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 45 MPH OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL
MONTANA AND NORTH- CENTRAL WYOMING, STRONGEST OVER THE FOOTHILLS
WEST OF BILLINGS, AND 20S AND 30S MPH OVER SOUTH- EASTERN MONTANA,
STRONGEST NEAR THE MONTANA-WYOMING STATE LINE. BECAUSE OF THESE
WINDS, THE RISK OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS GREATEST
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST MANY
AREAS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING
ARE STARTING TO GREEN UP. THIS OF COURSE WILL LIMIT THE IMPACT
ANY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD HAVE.
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, A COMPLEX SPRING WEATHER
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION (IN SOME
FASHION). WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS, PRECIPITATION
(RAIN AND SNOW), AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST. AT THIS POINT, THE BIGGEST QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY, AND HOW IT WILL
EVOLVE NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS
IMPACTS HOW STRONG THE WINDS COULD BE, AND WHAT THE EXTENT AND
DURATION OF THE PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD BE.
AT THIS POINT, GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, STRONGEST THURSDAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS, THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SEEING 60
MPH OR GREATER WIND GUSTS IS GENERALLY 30 TO 60 PERCENT, GREATEST
OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. AS FAR AS THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL GOES, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS (10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE) LOOK TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE. AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THE CURRENT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS HIGH (70 TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE), THE
RECENT TRENDS IN POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE GRADUALLY
DECREASED OVER THE PAST DAY OR TWO. THIS IS BECAUSE MODELS ARE
ENDING THE PRECIPITATION A LOT QUICKER ON THURSDAY AS THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR. WITH THAT
SAID, THE CURRENT CHANCE OF 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IS 20 TO 55 PERCENT, GREATEST SOUTH OF
BILLINGS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT IS IN PLAY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL START OUT AS
RAIN, THERE IS A CHANCE PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE). THE CURRENT CHANCE OF
SEEING 3 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS 10 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND HIGHER HILLS. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW, THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SEEING 12 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS 30 TO 50 PERCENT.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM IS VERY COMPLEX AND
SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST. THEREFORE,
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. ARENDS
AVIATION
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING
MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES.
ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045/079 046/085 053/077 039/047 030/047 027/047 028/051
00/U 00/U 14/T 87/W 34/J 22/J 22/W
LVM 040/076 043/080 046/067 034/045 025/044 023/045 023/048
00/U 01/N 15/T 97/W 44/J 32/J 11/B
HDN 037/080 042/087 050/081 036/048 028/048 026/048 026/052
00/U 00/U 13/W 98/W 34/W 22/W 22/W
MLS 038/077 044/085 053/083 036/046 027/044 025/045 025/047
00/U 00/U 12/W 78/W 33/J 11/B 11/B
4BQ 038/077 044/084 054/083 035/046 027/044 026/045 026/047
00/U 00/U 01/N 78/W 32/J 22/J 12/W
BHK 036/075 042/083 049/083 034/047 025/043 023/043 023/046
00/U 00/U 01/N 58/W 32/J 11/B 11/B
SHR 033/078 040/082 046/076 034/046 024/044 021/045 022/047
00/U 00/U 12/W 88/W 44/J 33/J 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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