101
FXUS65 KBYZ 202054
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
254 PM MDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SOME RISES ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS DUE TO MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT. USE CAUTION WITH BURNING.
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND
SNOW), AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT TRAVEL AND RECREATION.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD ALSO IMPACT YOUNG LIVESTOCK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY AND UPPER 70S AND
80S TUESDAY. WHILE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY
AROUND AND EAST OF BILLINGS, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEST
OF BILLINGS, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70S. WITH THIS EARLY WEEK
HEAT, MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
THE MID- ELEVATIONS WHERE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY
NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WHILE NO
FLOODING IS FORECAST, SOME RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS IS
EXPECTED.
WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY IN CHECK
WITH OCCASIONAL DAYTIME GUSTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S MPH, STRONGEST
ON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE OF OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. WITH
THIS, GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40S MPH ARE FORECAST, STRONGEST OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. WHILE THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD KEEP
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS A BIT LOWER TODAY AND TUESDAY, THE INCREASED
WINDS COMBINED WITH LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY. THE ONE CAVEAT TO CONSIDER IS THAT
GREENING IS UNDERWAY, SO THIS WILL LIMIT THE WILDLAND GRASSFIRE
RISK IN SPOTS. EITHER WAY, USE CAUTION BURNING EARLY THIS WEEK.
WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, A
SUBTLE WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL BRING SOME ELEVATED MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY. WITH THIS, AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE (10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE), BUT VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES
IT TO THE GROUND. THEREFORE, THE MAIN RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER
IS LIKELY AS A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHILE
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS SURROUNDING THE FORECAST OF THIS
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGHER IMPACT WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS.
AT THIS POINT, WE KNOW WINDY CONDITIONS, THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION, AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN, HOWEVER, THE
EXTENT OF THESE CONDITIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS IS DUE TO
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM. CURRENTLY,
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE REGION. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES TO
NEAR 70 TO 90 PERCENT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, THERE IS EVEN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE
PLAINS, WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. FROM
THERE ONWARD, MODELS DIVERGE AS, IN SOME FASHION, A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY BEFORE
PHASING WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW THE PHASING OF THESE TWO
SYSTEM OCCURS, THE LOW COULD EITHER STALL OUT OVER THE DAKOTAS,
BRINGING HIGHER END IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, OR THE LOW COULD SHIFT
NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, LIMITING THE IMPACTS OVER OUR AREA.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THE CURRENT CHANCE OF SEEING 60 MPH OR GREAT
WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY IS 30 TO 60 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING. THE CHANCE OF SEEING
0.50 INCHES OR MORE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY IS
ALSO 30 TO 60 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND HIGH HILLS
SOUTH OF BILLINGS WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WOULD BE IN PLACE. AS
FAR AS PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO
START AS RAIN BEFORE POTENTIALLY SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW ON
THURSDAY. WITH THIS, THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH IS EASTERN MONTANA
WHERE DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD SWITCH
RAIN OVER TO SNOW FASTER THAN ADVERTISED, RESULTING IN POTENTIAL
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. ARENDS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/085 052/080 040/049 031/046 026/048 026/053 030/057
00/U 13/T 77/W 33/J 11/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 044/079 047/069 035/044 025/041 020/045 023/050 027/056
00/N 13/T 87/W 54/J 11/B 11/B 12/W
HDN 043/087 050/084 038/049 029/046 024/049 024/053 027/059
00/U 13/T 89/W 34/J 12/J 11/B 11/B
MLS 044/085 053/087 039/049 029/041 024/044 023/049 027/054
00/U 12/W 69/W 33/J 11/B 01/B 11/B
4BQ 044/084 053/086 038/048 029/042 024/044 024/049 028/054
00/U 01/N 59/W 33/J 11/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 041/083 049/087 038/048 027/039 021/040 020/044 024/050
00/U 01/N 39/W 33/J 11/B 01/B 11/B
SHR 041/083 047/079 035/047 024/043 019/044 021/048 025/053
00/B 11/N 68/W 55/J 22/J 12/W 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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