415
FXUS65 KBYZ 212206
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
406 PM MDT TUE APR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CONTINUE. EXPECT SOME RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE TO
MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT.
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.
IMPACTS INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, SOME PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND
SNOW), AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- THE LATE WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT IMPACT TRAVEL AND
RECREATION. COOL AND WET CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT YOUNG LIVESTOCK.
UPDATE
A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY
COVERING ALL LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS DUE TO FORECAST WARM, DRY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS. PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THESE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT
WIND-DRIVEN GRASS FIRES.
A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ABASAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED, IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIND, THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION, AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR OR RECREATION
PLANS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, MAKE SURE TO STAY UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
WIND FORECAST: WHILE LIGHTER WINDS EXIST TODAY, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OVER
THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS (LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER TO
HARLOWTON AREA) WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. DURING THIS TIME, GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH ARE
FORECAST, WITH THERE BEING A 40 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING AN
OCCASIONAL GUST TO 60 MPH DURING THE EVENING AS STRONGER MID-
LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP. OVER THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS (INCLUDING
ABSAROKEE THROUGH RED LODGE) A PERIOD OF GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS IS
ALSO LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. DURING THIS
TIME, GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH THERE BEING A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A 60 MPH OR GREATER WIND GUST. OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA, WINDS WILL BE WEAKER BUT STILL BREEZY WEDNESDAY
WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. THE ONE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THE
GREEN UP IS UNDERWAY, SO THIS WILL LIMIT THE WILDLAND GRASSFIRE
RISK IN SPOTS. EITHER WAY, TAKE CARE TO NOT CAUSE A SPARK ON
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY, THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS
WILL BRING GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DURING THIS TIME, NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 40S AND 50S MPH
ARE FORECAST, WITH THERE BEING A 20 TO 50 PERCENT OF AN OCCASIONAL
GUST TO 60 MPH, GREATEST OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WYOMING. WHILE MUCH LESS WINDY, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY
DAY TIME NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S MPH ACROSS
THE AREA.
PRECIPITATION FORECAST: A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THE MAIN THREAT IS
BRIEF GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH DUE TO
VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS DRY AIR WILL ALSO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. WHILE THE
CHANCE IS VERY LOW, THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A 5
PERCENT CHANCE OF A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO OVER AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASES ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
WITH THIS, MODELS HAVE TRENDED DOWN IN COVERAGE REGARDING
SHOWERS, AND MAYBE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, ON WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THEN PEAKS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. WITH THIS, PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN OVER THE PLAINS, BUT HAVE INCREASED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS DUE TO BETTER UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. WITH THIS,
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY START AS RAIN BELOW 7,500 FEET BEFORE
COOLER AIR MOVES IN, ALLOWING SNOW LEVELS TO DROP NEAR 4,000 FEET
ON THURSDAY AND THEN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
WHILE THE CHANCE OF SEEING 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS HIGH IN THE
MOUNTAINS, THE CHANCE OF SEEING 3 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE
FOOTHILLS IS 25 TO 75 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS NEAR ABSAROKEE TO RED LODGE.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST: TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S
TO 90 DEGF OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND 60S TO 70S OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA BEFORE MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN LATE WEEK. WITH THIS, HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
40S TO 50S ACROSS THE AREA. ARENDS
AVIATION
HIGH BASED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE OFF HIGHER
TERRAIN AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MAIN THREAT WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTS
35-45 KTS. WIDESPREAD BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS (30-40 KTS) WILL
BEGIN LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND
THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN THESE SHOWERS WITH GUSTY AND ERRATIC GUSTS
OF 35-45 KTS. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 052/079 042/052 031/046 025/048 027/048 030/053
0/U 23/W 56/W 45/J 22/W 23/W 22/W
LVM 082 047/068 036/047 025/040 019/044 023/045 026/052
0/N 25/W 88/W 77/J 32/J 23/J 22/W
HDN 088 051/083 040/052 029/046 024/050 027/050 029/054
0/U 13/W 57/W 33/J 22/W 24/W 33/W
MLS 086 054/088 040/049 029/045 025/047 026/046 029/049
0/U 12/W 58/W 22/J 11/B 23/W 22/W
4BQ 086 055/085 041/052 030/045 025/047 028/045 029/049
0/B 12/W 37/W 33/J 21/B 33/W 32/W
BHK 085 050/089 039/049 027/044 023/045 025/046 026/047
0/U 02/W 28/W 22/J 11/B 23/W 32/W
SHR 084 050/078 036/052 024/042 020/045 023/044 025/050
0/B 12/W 47/W 67/J 33/W 34/W 33/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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