062
FXUS65 KBYZ 220717
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
117 AM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE. EXPECT SOME RISES ON STREAMS AND RIVERS DUE
TO MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT.
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LIKELY LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, SOME PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW), AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- THE WEATHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT IMPACT TRAVEL AND RECREATION.
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT YOUNG LIVESTOCK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND 80S. WINDS WILL
INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE
FIRST PIECE OF A COMPLEX SYSTEM SLIDING INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH EAST OF BILLINGS AND 40 TO
55 MPH FROM BILLINGS WEST. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE OF A
GUST GREATER THAN 60 MPH OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THESE WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS, ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS CONTINUE.
AS THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SYSTEM MOVES IN, THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN
OVER THE PLAINS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE FOR A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS FIRST
ROUND WILL REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH
GENERALLY A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.1" THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE FIRST PIECE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
SLIDE NORTHEAST INTO CANADA, BRINGING A 50-80% CHANCE OF PRECIP TO
LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE SYSTEM THEN
DROPS SOUTH, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, FALLING TO
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S THURSDAY AND MOSTLY 40S FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE FRONT AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT TO
SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY,
WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH.
THE SECOND PIECE OF THE SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE FIRST PIECE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW THEN WRAPS PRECIP AROUND OVER
THE REGION. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL BE FAVORED DUE TO
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT, ALLOWING PERIODS OF MOUNTAIN SNOW TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE A 60-80% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST 8" OF SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY. OVER THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS,
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE (20-50% CHANCE) OVER THE PLAINS,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WITH
GENERALLY A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1" OF SNOW.
CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, KEEPING TEMPS
COOLER AND ALLOWING OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ARCHER
AVIATION
HIGH BASED VERY LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF
W WYOMING NORTH ACROSS THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND
THROUGH THE WESTERN 1/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAN'T RULE OUT A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO AND MAYBE A BRIEF SPRINKLE, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 35KTS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY 10Z.
MORNING SURFACE INVERSION SHOULD BREAK AROUND 16Z WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASING TO GUSTS TO 30KTS BY 18Z. WIND SPEEDS
WILL INCREASE FURTHER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. GUSTS CLOSE TO 50KTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 45KT RANGE
WIDESPREAD. EVEN NORMALLY SHELTERED AREAS SUCH AS KSHR WILL SEE
GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN ZONES MID AFTERNOON,
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP HOLD FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR
OR BETTER WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC WITH A TON OF WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE (ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS) ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 042/053 030/046 027/047 029/045 030/054 033/062
2/W 67/W 45/J 32/J 24/J 33/W 12/W
LVM 064 035/047 023/042 020/045 024/043 026/051 031/057
5/T 99/W 77/J 33/J 24/J 33/W 12/W
HDN 080 040/054 029/048 026/050 028/047 028/055 030/064
2/W 68/W 45/J 32/W 24/W 33/W 12/W
MLS 087 039/049 029/046 026/047 027/047 028/051 031/060
2/W 48/W 12/J 11/B 13/W 21/B 11/B
4BQ 083 040/051 031/047 026/051 029/044 027/050 030/059
1/N 26/W 22/J 21/B 35/W 32/W 11/B
BHK 087 037/047 026/045 024/044 025/044 025/047 027/056
1/N 27/W 11/N 11/B 24/W 32/J 11/B
SHR 076 037/051 024/044 023/048 024/042 024/049 027/058
1/N 48/W 77/J 43/W 35/W 43/W 23/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM
MDT FRIDAY FOR ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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