184
FXUS65 KBYZ 222155
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
355 PM MDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF ANTICIPATED PRECIPITATION.
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LIKELY LATE TODAY INTO FRIDAY. IMPACTS
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS, SOME PRECIPITATION (RAIN AND SNOW), AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- THE WEATHER SYSTEM COULD IMPACT IMPACT TRAVEL AND RECREATION.
COOL AND WET CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT YOUNG LIVESTOCK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MT
BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW UP INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT. WITH THIS AN
INITIAL FRONTAL PUSH MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT DURING THE
MID DAY HOURS IS ALSO BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT
ARE LIKELY PRODUCING LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM (GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL) IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOUTHWEST/WEST GUSTS 30-50 MPH. INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS, A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH AS THE LOW WRAPS UP
INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING BREEZY TO
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION (RAIN
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS). ON THE WIND
SIDE OF THE FORECAST, PROBABILITIES LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH A 40-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH
FOR THESE AREAS. A GRADIENT SET UP ACROSS THE BEARTOOTHS IS
CREATING A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 6AM THURSDAY MORNING AS A RESULT FOR ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS OFF THE TERRAIN TO 60 MPH. CHANCE REMAINS LOWER FOR
AREAS LIKE BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN, WY (20%) AND MILES CITY (10%).
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, AROUND A 50-70% CHANCE EXISTS FOR A
HALF INCH OF PRECIP FOR AREAS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND 20% OR LESS FOR SOUTHEAST MT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AREAS ALONG THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, RECEIVING
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BY FRIDAY. THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT AROUND 6-18 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO GET 6-12 INCHES. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE (40S/50S/LOW 60S)
WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES
DEPICT ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT AREN'T QUITE SURE ON HOW FAR NORTH AND
WEST TO BRING THE MOISTURE. TS
AVIATION
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY, LOOK FOR WINDS TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS CLOSE TO
50KTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WITH GUSTS IN THE
30 TO 45KT RANGE WIDESPREAD. EVEN NORMALLY SHELTERED AREAS SUCH AS
KSHR WILL SEE GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN ZONES MID AFTERNOON,
WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO TOMORROW
EVENING. DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL HELP HOLD FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR
OR BETTER WITH THIS ACTIVITY. LOOK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT, SPREADING
EAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM IS VERY DYNAMIC WITH A TON OF WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT.
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE (ESPECIALLY
NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS) ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
CHAMBERS/STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/052 030/045 025/047 027/044 030/051 031/061 037/063
77/W 44/J 32/J 13/J 43/W 12/W 23/W
LVM 035/046 024/041 019/044 022/043 027/051 030/058 033/059
99/T 77/J 33/J 13/J 43/W 22/W 12/W
HDN 039/053 029/047 025/051 027/046 029/052 029/063 034/064
86/W 34/J 32/J 24/J 43/W 12/W 23/W
MLS 037/048 029/046 025/045 024/045 028/048 029/059 033/061
59/W 11/B 11/B 13/J 32/J 11/B 12/W
4BQ 038/051 030/047 026/048 027/042 027/046 028/055 033/059
27/W 22/J 21/B 35/W 52/W 11/B 13/W
BHK 035/046 026/045 023/045 024/042 026/046 026/053 029/058
27/W 11/B 11/E 24/J 42/W 11/B 12/W
SHR 037/051 025/044 020/046 023/040 025/047 026/057 031/057
48/W 77/J 43/J 36/W 53/W 22/W 24/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR ZONE
56.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES
65-66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 130>133.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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